저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 행정부의 전기차 의무화 폐지와 EV 보조금 축소 방침을 분석. 단기적으로 리비안·루시드에 큰 악재, 테슬라도 단기 악재지만 경쟁사 도태 시 장기적으로 긍정적이라고 봄. 독일 보조금 중단 후 전기차 판매 27.4% 감소 사례를 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
President Trump has only been in office for about a day, and we've already received some disappointing news for investors in electric vehicle stocks, including Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid, as the new administration has said it will not support an electric vehicle mandate. I will take a detailed look at these statements and what they could mean for investors in Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid stocks in both the short and long term.
And you will be surprised by my conclusion about what this means in the long run. kev for the top 10 deals to buy now. So, it's no surprise that Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid shares fell 3%, 7%, and 5% today amid this news from President Trump. Trump wasted no time on his first day in office . And one of the decisions he overturned was a mandatory decree on electric vehicles.
This executive order required that by 2030, half of new cars produced in the United States be electric. We were already behind schedule, but now it means companies will no longer be forced to produce these electric cars. We have already seen, and I have reported on this , that the demand for electric vehicles is not at all what these companies had hoped for .
It's not even close to being at the level that can support all these companies that produce electric cars. There may only be room for one or two electric car companies, given the pace at which people are buying them . And that's why you've seen companies like Rivian and Lucid, and startups like Fisker, go bankrupt because they thought the demand would be here, when in fact it's much lower.
I'm talking about the demand for electric vehicles, and that's even taking into account all these government subsidies. So this news about the 2030 mandate being lifted—it's actually good news for Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid because it means companies like Ford, GM, Stellantis, VW, and others won't be forced to build them.
And they don't want to create electric cars. Believe me, these companies are losing billions of dollars on their electric car business, but they were forced to do it. They were forced to create these electric cars by the government. So, now that they are not being forced, they will likely significantly scale back their ambitions in this direction.
But this is also another thing I've been telling investors about for the last 5 years. Many investors in electric vehicle stocks were almost certain that they were the future. They thought it was obvious that the whole world would switch to electric cars. And it just has to happen, because governments will push everyone in this direction.
And I warned you all that governments are fickle. They change their minds as often as you and I change our shoes. So, the previous administration strongly supported electric vehicles. The incoming administration is strongly opposed to electric vehicles. And the next administration after this one could side with electric cars again, and so they will swing back and forth, depending on what is popular at the moment.
This is what politicians do. So you can't base your investments, your hard-earned dollars, on such political decisions of companies that depend on government handouts, right? Lucid and Rivian, in particular, have relied heavily on these tax breaks, especially for new buyers, lease credits for new buyers.
So that's unfortunate, but let's look at more details. I was emphasizing that the news about the mandate being repealed is actually good for these EV companies. But here's the bad news. Trump also instructed his administration to consider eliminating what he called unfair subsidies and all other ill-conceived government-imposed market distortions that favor electric vehicles.
So, he wants to repeal everything that unreasonably favors electric vehicles, and there is a lot of that now due to the Biden administration. The Biden administration has been providing grants and expanding tax breaks through IRA funding, much of which has gone to red states, to bolster the electric vehicle industry and promote clean energy to combat climate change.
The first electric vehicle tax credit was passed under former President George W. Bush. In other words, this is exactly the part that will hurt companies like Tesla, Lucid, and Rivian, as they get roughly, uh, for buyers, especially Rivian and Lucid offering leasing. Buyers receive approximately $7,500 in credit on this lease .
And for Tesla, some get this credit upon purchase. So, without this $7,500 loan, the lease payments and lease terms that Rivian and Lucid will be able to offer will be significantly worse than they are now. And they can't take on higher costs and just say, " Okay, we'll cover those costs and give customers the same terms as if they were getting a $7,500 loan, we'll just pay for it ourselves." And companies like Rivian and Lucid really can't afford that.
They are already losing billions of dollars. With current conditions that have been very favorable for electric vehicle companies and will now become unfavorable, I dread to imagine what the losses will be for Rivian and Lucid if those $7,500 loans are canceled. One way to predict the outcome is to look at what happened in Germany.
So, in Germany in 2024, electric vehicle sales decreased, that's right, decreased by 27.4%. Electric vehicle market declines by 27.4% . And the reason is that the German government was forced to unexpectedly stop subsidizing electric vehicles in December 2023. So when the German government removed these subsidies, electric car sales fell by 27% year-on-year .
So we shouldn't be surprised by a similar outcome in the United States if these tax breaks for electric vehicles are repealed. Imagine companies like Rivian and Lucid rolling back 27%. They are already losing billions of dollars, and now they are also experiencing a 27% pullback. Tesla, if it rolls back 27 %, will be able to withstand this blow much better than Rivian and Lucid.
Tesla has a much stronger balance sheet with over $30 billion in cash and short-term investments. And a drop in sales will certainly hurt the company. Its profits will fall, as will its cash flow from operations, but the company will be able to withstand this pain in the short term, because as Elon Musk said, it will hurt our competitors much more than it hurts us, and that's true.
And in the long run, this could be good news for Tesla, as it could lead to the destruction of many competitors over the next 5 years. This won't happen quickly, as these EV companies, including Rivian and Lucid and others, have received so much capital that they can last for a while without going bankrupt even without these subsidies.
But overall , in the short term, this is definitely bad, very bad news for companies like Rivian and Lucid. In the short term, this is bad news for Tesla, but in the long term, it could be good news for it if it eliminates many competitors, because Tesla was doing well until everyone around them decided to start producing electric cars.
That's when Tesla's sales growth virtually stopped. Tesla did not show any growth in electric vehicle sales in 2024, despite the appearance of the newer Cybertruck model. So without competition, Tesla will likely return to growth again. Tesla's cost of goods sold will decrease. It's not just that people are buying these other cars, because when compared to Tesla, Tesla has sold almost 2 million units, while Rivian and Lucid combined haven't even reached 75,000.
So it's not that, it's that the competition for labor, materials, and other resources to produce these electric cars is driving up costs and making it harder for Tesla to do business. Hello everyone, if you enjoy watching my videos, I have prepared a great additional product for you. I created a book.
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