저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
은 가격 상승은 투기가 아닌 수년간의 통화 왜곡·가격 억제·실물 공급 부족의 결과이며 장기 구조적 상승이라고 주장. 은광주는 아직 신고점을 못 갔지만 곧 따라갈 것으로 봄. 트럼프가 금리 인하를 원하는 친정부 연준의장을 임명할 것이므로 달러 약세·금 강세 우려, 사실상 QE 재개 중이며 물가는 여전히 목표치(2%)보다 높다고 비판.
다듬은 글
You know, Trump declared it as strategic metal silver, right? I mean, there's a lot of real industrial use. Big buyers need silver. Uh, and there's just not a lot of silver there. That is the problem. Uh, now it's not a problem for me. I own a bunch of silver. I own a bunch of silver mining companies, right?
So do my clients now. But it's a problem for the people who have short they've shorted silver that they don't have. And good luck trying to get a hold of it, right? that, oh well, you know, this is just some kind of speculative blowoff and so they're not paying up for these silver stocks. Well, they're going to because this is not a speculative blowoff.
This is a long overdue catchup. In fact, one of the places where there isn't a bubble, I mean, there's so many bubbles that have been inflated uh by uh the Fed and its, you know, loose monetary policy. The one thing that's not in a bubble is gold and silver. It's not even close. It doesn't even have any of the characteristics that would qualify it as as a bubble.
According to Peter Schiff, the founder of Europacific Capital, Shift Gold, and Europacific Asset Management, this increase was never about speculation. It is related to certainty. According to Schiff, the remarkable shift in silver is the result of years of monetary distortion, price repression, and continuous underinvestment in physical supply coming together with reality.
According to Schiff, the breakthrough indicates a long-term move away from paper promises and toward real assets. Silver is now viewed as a crucial monetary and industrial metal rather than a fringe commodity as investors scramble to preserve purchasing power. However, Schiff points out that gold's actions make this moment much more illuminating.
Gold has held steady at high prices and refused to decline despite fluctuations in other riskier assets. This consolidation is viewed as indication that a new floor has been set, driven by ongoing global demand and waning faith in fiat currencies rather than as a sign of fatigue. . And we're on track.
In fact, it's actually moving up even faster than I thought. Now, I'm not surprised that this is happening. What's actually surprising to me is that it took so long for this to happen. I mean, how long was silver at 30 bucks when gold was 3,000 and higher? In fact, at one point it was not only 100 to1, it was like 108 ounces of silver.
And we're not going to get anywhere near 50 on silver again. I doubt it. I mean, it's is it possible that we could go back down and retest 50 again? I guess so. But I think the odds are that we're not going to get down there. Um, what's also been a bit surprising, but again, nothing surprises me, is that the mining stocks have gone nowhere this week.
They've been steady. Even the silver stocks, even with this explosive move in silver, the silver stocks are not making new highs yet. Uh and maybe uh you know, people are thinking that this is a fluke, right? That oh well, you know, this is just some kind of speculative blowoff and so they're not paying up for these silver stocks.
Well, they're going to because this is not a speculative blowoff. This is a long overdue catchup. In fact, one of the places where there isn't a bubble, I mean, there's so many bubbles that have been inflated uh by uh the Fed and its, you know, loose monetary policy. The one thing that's not in a bubble is gold and silver.
It's not even close. It doesn't even have any of the characteristics that would qualify it uh as as a bubble. Uh a and and so I think that a lot of the money that has kind of been on the sideline this week, it started just like I said last week on Sunday night, you know, silver gapped up to $3 on Monday.
Had a big move, but you had all weekend to buy it. And I and and again, you got to go to shift gold and buy some gold and silver tomorrow, this weekend. Just don't wait till Sunday night because that's when Asia wakes up and they start buying. you want to buy before they do that, right? And I think with the thin holiday trading next week, uh, we could see even bigger moves.
We could see a bigger short squeeze. There's still shorts out there in silver holding and hoping that the market comes down, but there could be an overwhelming amount of physical demand for this commodity that is in scarce supply. You know, Trump declared it as strategic metal, silver, right? I mean, there's a lot of real industrial use.
Big buyers need silver. Uh, and there's just not a lot of silver there. That is the problem. Uh, now it's not a problem for me. I own a bunch of silver. I own a bunch of silver mining companies, right? So do my clients now. But it's a problem for the people who have short they've shorted silver that they don't have and good luck trying to get a hold of it.
Markets welcome the most recent CPI report since it fell short of expectations. But that optimism can be deceptive. Despite the apparent slowdown in inflation, a deeper examination reveals that annualized price rise is still significantly higher than the Federal Reserve's stated target. Put differently, the fundamental issue of inflation has not been resolved.
Rather, it is merely being minimized. Simultaneously, the Fed's balance sheet expansion and possible interest rate decreases were referred to be a quiet return to quantitative easing. The result is the same. Extra liquidity is added to the economy, even if policymakers choose not to use the phrase QE.
The growing politics of future monetary leadership was associated with additional pressure on the US currency. It was thought to pose a significant risk to central bank credibility to pick a Federal Reserve chair who is publicly dedicated to cutting interest rates regardless of inflation or economic facts.
Political concerns would take precedence over currency stability in such a change. Make sure to like, subscribe, and click the bell icon to get notified whenever we upload new content. We really appreciate your support. The other thing that's going to be driving uh the dollar lower uh and gold higher is the new Fed chairman yet to be announced.
I think Trump has said he's supposed to announce his pick uh before the end of the year, but Trump talked about his pick and what Trump said was that he is going to appoint a Fed chairman who wants lower interest rates. Now, that should scare the hell out of anybody that has US dollars, right? He didn't say, "I'm gonna appoint the best man for the job or gal for the job, best person.
I'm going to appoint somebody who's determined to uh maintain the purchasing power of the dollar, maintain price stability, be a good steward of uh the dollar and and its role uh you know be above the political fray, uh be independent." No, no, he didn't say that. He said, "I am going to put somebody in charge of the Fed who is going to lower interest rates whether the economy calls for lower interest rates or not is basically what he's saying.
I am sending somebody to the Fed with a directive to cut interest rates, right? It's that's it. And if you're not going to give me your word that you're going to cut rates and if I don't trust that you're going to do it because obviously, you know, you could change your mind, right? Once you get the job, you're there, right?
The president can't fire you. I mean, he's trying. So, he wants to make sure he's got a real Trump supporter that won't stab him in the back, right, by doing what's right for the country, that it's going to be loyal to Trump above all else, right? That is the one criteria that Trump has. You will do exactly what I ask you to do, right?
And if you say yes, you you got the job, right? I think that's who he's going to put in charge. The one he thinks is most likely not to, you know, you disappoint him, not to knife him in the back and and say, "You know what? Sorry, Mr. President. I I, you know, now that you appointed me, I take this job too seriously.
I I got to do what I got to do." and you know we can't cut rates. You know that's not the guy Trump does not want that kind of guy. He wants a yes man. He wants a team player. And he's making that pretty obvious, right? That the Fed chairman is going to be the puppet and he's going to be the puppeteer.
And it's not just going to be um rate cuts. It's going to be QE. Right? All Trump wants to do is blow air into this bubble. That is his only goal to prevent everything from collapsing while he's still there. X food and energy 2 better than.3 expected but still well above 2% annualized and year-over-year core CPI came out at plus 2.6.
Now, better than the.3% or the 3% expected, but it's still higher than what you would want when the Fed was cutting rates. But remember, right, the Fed, and I talked about this on my last podcast, the Fed cut rates again and return to quantitative easing. Now, of course, the Fed and everybody has been doing, you know, damage control, trying to reassure everybody that what they're doing is not QE.
right now. You, of course, why don't they want to admit that? Because that's admitting that there's a big problem because we did QE in the financial crisis and during COVID, right, when we had a great recession and we had this pandemic and a shutdown of the economy. Those are the times we did QE. And so, if we're doing QE again, well, that must indicate that there's a real big problem.
Otherwise, we wouldn't be doing this emergency measure. So the Fed has to make sure that people don't realize that QE is in fact QE. So they're saying, "No, no, no. We're just managing our reserves or whatever, whatever." But I don't care how they want to dress up this pig, right? They can put all the lipstick on it they want.
It's still QE by any other name or whatever. They haven't even come up with a name for it. Uh but they are monetizing debt. They're printing money and buying treasuries, right? just because they're buying T- bills and not T-notes or T- bonds, still QE. They're doing it to artificially suppress interest rates.
And they're doing it because they have to. They're not doing it because they want to. In fact, the only reason they stopped quantitative tightening is so they could start quantitative easing. That's exactly what I said, right? The minute they announced that they were going to end QT, I said, "Well, that's just the first step." The next thing you know, they're going to crank up QE, which they did almost immediately.
Peter Schiff said that anyone holding US dollars should be extremely concerned about Donald Trump's recent remarks regarding selecting the next head of the Federal Reserve. Schiff claims that Trump publicly declared that his primary requirements for the position are a readiness to lower interest rates rather than independence, expertise, or a dedication to preserving the dollar's purchasing power.
Schiff underlined that Trump did not specify that he was looking for the best candidate or someone who prioritized monetary discipline or price stability. According to Schiff, there is a major collapse in the independence of central banks. Trump wants someone he completely trusts to obey orders rather than operate in the long-term best interest of the nation because once a Fed chair is appointed, they are difficult to dismiss.
According to Schiff, this transforms the Federal Reserve from an autonomous organization into a political instrument where choices are made to further immediate political objectives rather than safeguard the currency. He contended that this change increases the dollar's long-term depreciation and undermines faith in it.
He then connected the most recent inflation numbers to this political risk. Even though the most recent CPI figures were marginally better than anticipated, Schiff emphasized that inflation is still too high in a setting where the Fed is lowering interest rates. Price pressures have not been alleviated because core inflation is still significantly higher than the 2% target set by the Fed.
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