저자: Kevin · 외국인
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Kevin은 현재 약세 입장을 유지하며, 강세론자인 TS Lombard의 Dario Perkins 견해를 인용한다. Perkins는 Fed의 50bp 인하에도 좌꼬리 리스크가 제거되지 않았다고 보며, 노동시장 둔화(해고 공고·구인 감소·장기실업), 글로벌 제조업 재약화, Fed의 승리 선언 등을 우려한다. 수익률곡선 역전은 약 20bp 수준으로 아직 경기침체 신호가 완성되지 않았지만, Perkins 규칙(고용 마이너스 전환)이 임박했다고 본다. Kevin은 경기침체 확률을 약 70%로 보고, 10월 고용지표 등을 주시하며 헤지를 권한다.
다듬은 글
hey take a look at this this is a bull okay A lot of people are asking me Hey Kevin can you cover more bullish stuff are you always bearish I'm like no many of you know I'm not always bearish I've been bearish since July and I expect to be bearish until at least right before the election and and then trust me I want to go back to being a bull okay it's a lot easier but at least in the meantime people are asking me Kevin like hey you know can you give us like some kind of like bull hope at least to look at and I thought okay yeah let's look at TS Lombard uh and the reason like TS Lombard is because this team over here they're generally generally more bullish uh than than what I see by others out on Wall Street uh and I like balancing My Views to theirs you know for example uh Dario Perkins over here starts with I've been in the soft Landing camp for a while and he's not going to abandon it now okay all right so we kind of know where this is getting started right uh he's telling us hey look I'm a soft Landing guy and these guys are professional wall streeters I I love their Insight honestly I recommend everybody check out TS Lombard it's #n notsponsored I I just like reading them like when I see their name pop up I'm like oh I wonder what they have to say hopefully it's kind of like that for you for me where it's like oh me Kevin video hopefully you come and learn new things every time right that's the goal uh so I was reading this last night and I'm like oh I was not expecting this so uh I want you to see how he's net bullish but some issues that are coming up for them take a look at this so I'm not going to abandon it now especially after the feds 50 basis point cut mind you with this 50 basis point cut here there are a lot of people on Wall Street that say the left tail has been eliminated by uh the Federal Reserve I actually think that's a pretty crazy um how should I put it um complacent thing to say I don't think the left tail is ever removed but there were some analysts on Wall Street I was reading they're like oh the Federal Reserve basically said look we cannot go to the left the left is down right this is the down Market this is sad this is like hyper runaway melt up amazing bullish economy uh and then you know this is your sort of middle standard deviations here right middle standard deviation one standard deviation two okay simple the left tail is like everything goes to poopy doopy and uh this analyst I was reading earlier today they're like oh the fed's eliminated the left tail risk no left tail risk this is great and I'm like no no no no the FED has not eliminated a left tail risk until they cut rates by 200 basis points in an emergency capitulation capitulation cut and then they cut another 20000 basis points and we're basically back under 1% you know then I think the Federal Reserve has actually stopped the left tail risk now maybe they're signaling that they would be willing to do that but I don't think they would be willing to do that until you have some serious pain in Market KS so uh you know point of that right is is just to say like hey you know the FED could be there to bail you out but the fed's not going to capitulate and bail you out until something breaks and something actually has like a lot of pain for a while the downside of that is if something has a lot of pain for a while it means valuations are are typically lower right uh this is why sometimes on days like today I kind of just like uh trading you know this morning I threw in uh right when data came out we talked about it I threw in this see 7 a.m.
is even where my screenshot is I threw in this order here 5 seconds after the data came out you could look at that timing 82 Cent purchase on the cues uh and this was my Tesla S sell which I made some profit on that which was nice but look at that I sold it for 159 which was nearly a double and I hit Buy on that I send a notification to everybody in my Discord puts and CNBC comes on like a minute later they start tanking the freaking Market was like kind of funny uh you got to beat CNBC to the news uh but anyway we try to do more of that I think that's that's always entertaining uh remember we have a flash sale in honor of that called Data double going on until uh the end of the day today and that trade held its value for for like another 20 minutes or so so like you didn't have to be really fast on jumping out uh but uh but eventually we did end up bottoming out on the cues and it it was important to cover but anyway take a look at this they say I'm not going to abandon after the 50 you know especially after the feds 50 that's fine uh it's a commitment to not fall behind the curve blah blah blah but there are a couple things that are bothering me I'm like oh interesting a bull getting bothered that's that's rare usually it's just like hey it's just going to go straight up recent labor market trends covering in depth uh covered in depth we've been talking about these already uh and the sudden rather surprising relapse in global manufacturing okay so both of these matter we've been covering these either in the manufa facturing isms we've been covering them in the labor market the uh attemp layoffs the peing out of government and education employes the peaking out of job openings the number of people who are 27 weeks unemployed look that up Google that one and it's I'm telling you it looks like you're in a recession but anyway uh uh and then a third thing that bothers him central banks taking Victory laps okay interesting so he's a bull and he's like hm we're starting to face some problems here labor market trends Manu facturing and then the Federal Reserve basically trying to say everything's fine we're winning I actually agree with this I think these Victory laps are somewhat hubris and I was a little nervous that I I feel like Drome Powell is holding back the concerns he truly has and he's like don't worry everything's fine to purposefully pump the markets because he realizes that if the stock market's up you have a lower chance of getting layoffs but but you're built on fugazi foundations then yeah it's not great but anyway the cycle that fooled the consensus this has not been a normal business cycle and they talk about how leading indicators have given false signals like postco manufacturing recession uh this was not a sign of a broader economic crash the Phillips curve was wrong the Philips curve was suggesting we should have had interest rates up at like 9 or 10% uh people thought a recession would be needed to cure inflation no it's just once you start lapping the price increases everything's adjusted up wow all of a sudden you don't need more inflation unless you're printing more money okay we we knew that that's fine this is why we've been talking Nike SW recovery for a while B baverage curve this this has to do with the labor market expanding labor force participation yield curve predicts policy easings not necessarily recession well the problem is usually when you come out of recession you predict a lot of easing it's because you are pricing in a recession we're still not there yet usually you don't start a recession until you're 50 to 90 basis points uninverted and uh we're at about 20 right now partial debt sustain ility blah blah blah okay so the biggest error so far postco in calling for a recession has been underestimating the resilience of Labor markets or believing that central banks would have to destroy labor markets to get inflation down which would cause a recession even now there's still a chance that people are misleading or misreading labor market trends here I want to focus on a different issue Global manufacturing two years ago it was easy to dismiss the weakness in manufacturing as a head fake okay so basically let me show this to you on the map when you go down you go down because of covid okay this this makes logical sense when you come back up you go up because everybody's printing money like crazy and then of course you're going to have a year-over-year comparison so you're going to have some volatility after the you know the remarkable recovery what he's most concerned about right now beyond the labor market weakening which we've already covered on the channel is this right here this is his second big concern he's going wait a minute this latest deterioration is actually more concerning this chart is in his words and he's a bull he's a soft Landing bull particularly ugly okay that's not good because this now means you've got the labor market that's poopy doopy and now you've got manufacturing that's turning poopy doopy that's not great this is a lot of poopy dupies uh and then of course you know you have uh the the oil Market that you know yeah it bounced today because of Chinese stimulus I mean we we we knew the Chinese stimulus was coming we weren't expecting it to be this big this was great wonder what oil ended up but the oil Market is signaling some distress it might be the same distress that you get someone like a Jamie Diamond arguing about of like H you know the market is pricing in Perfection I think I'm going to sit on the sidelines for this one that's what Jamie Diamond says now maybe it's because he's getting ready to retire or go on to I don't know make a spack or something who knows but uh you know it's saying something when some of these big boys are like I don't know man this is getting a little silly but yeah look oil markets bottom to a three and a half year low two weeks ago today uh actually I think it was 15 days ago but whatever you've had a nice rebound from 69 to 75 but you're talking an 89% rebound cool you're still way lower than where you have been I mean here's the chart that they they've given on this uh and and this does signal uh a downtrend uh either if you draw it like this or frankly you look at uh you know this sort of ceiling of highs that you're getting this downtrend here you know this is this is certainly recessionary and it's again a sign of weakening manufacturing base 18 months ago we could basically ignore what's happening in the global industrial cycle reopening from the pandemic had caused a massive pivot from Goods to services and blah blah blah this triggered a huge bull whip effect in inventories and Manufacturing weakness didn't tell us anything but now he's kind of like I don't know now now we might be a little bit in sort of a leading indicator issue see this is why he shows up this uh us leading indicator six-month annual change and if you notice we've recovered here in the leading indicator but we're already starting to inflect back down so it's like was was this drop right here just sort of counterbalancing the run but now we're inflecting back down that's what he's looking at then he looks he says over here so what's going on is this a sudden relapse and not part of the original fake cycle is this something to worry about is it a sign of monetary tightening finally starting to bite maybe by the way you know that would be a way of saying uh that suddenly you've got a Federal Reserve that has actually tightened because inflation has fallen so much and even though they're not raising rates anymore the excess increase in rates that we have is is leading to a tighter environment but Global manufacturing capacity utilization this is we they're basically pointing out here like wait a minute why are we normalizing here we should not be capping out here because if we draw a line from where we are and we draw it all the way back and then you kind of just draw cross points you're as bad as you were in 2012 uh over here in 2005 coming out of the 2001 recession going into the Great Recession uh you know close to almost a brief low over here in uh 2015 uh and then 2019 so so you're at at a pretty low normal level if this is supposed to be a return to normal this is odd obviously China's uh economy looks worse than people have ever seen before but then again we got you know stimulus uh today uh so so who knows maybe uh maybe maybe that'll you know all of a sudden help China uh but and and and spring up manufacturing demand is what they're suggesting but then again would would it support Chinese manufacturing or us manufacturing right probably Chinese Manufacturing uh but anyway after two two years of listen to this after two years of talking down recession scares I'm conscious that I might finally be overplaying my hand listen to that a bull is saying damn okay if you're bullish he's B basically here's what he's doing if you're bull he's saying look we we might still stick to soft Landing but we should really start paying attention to labor I mean we saw what happened in the ism report yesterday Manufacturing Services composite all lower than expected not great the Beats were nominal and the lows were low we saw what happened in the Challenger report from a couple weeks ago that was a horrible jobs report we saw what happened this morning on the conference board uh estimates not good this is just some of the recent data it just sort of compounds what you've been seeing beige book nine out of 12 sectors weakening this is problematic but what does he say here as I keep saying we are a more I think he meant to say in a more but as I keep saying we are in a more precarious situation now and it is unsettling to see Central Bankers do victory dances okay this is this is a big one because I I want you to just for a moment think about this when when Central Bankers do a victory dance they're basically telling you it's okay if interest rates go up but wait a minute now you're not fighting the manufacturing pain or the jobs pain because you just let yields rise which is like fully dumb like I want to say you know a word I shouldn't be saying but it's basically it's kind of like fully our word okay like we shouldn't be saying or even referencing these things but for the Federal Reserve to suggest that oh we've declared Victory everything's good and then all of a sudden you see this jump and yields you are tightening on top of Labor Market weakness and Manufacturing weakness that is full dumb and why does the market keep rewarding the fed well because the FED is performing a victory dance central bank hubris is definitely top of cycle stuff yeah that's not a good line uh and this is a bull this is this is the full bull here but it isn't time to panic yet not until the Perkins rule triggers okay the Perkins rule is sort of his version of the PS Rule and he's like the PS rule might be triggered but the Perkins rule hasn't triggered it you know and then actually compares to mrss too this is his rule on unemployment he's like it hasn't hit yet okay that's fine that that's fine but let's just be clear a bull is like things are still okay but we do have problems let me show you quickly the Perkins rule so you could see it here so this is the Perkins rule Revisited from August uh 26th and let's just go right to his definition of the Perkins rule so basically what you have here is how does the Perkins rule compare to the S rule it certainly has more false positives okay so so this is important because if he's if the Perkins rule triggers it's bad and he's saying his rule has more false positives while it is rare for us payrolls to decline outside of recessions it does happen occasionally usually this is due to obvious distortions such as extreme weather but it also happened during the famous soft Landing in 1995 when a shockingly bad employment report later revised prompted Allen Greenspan to cut rates it also happened in the late 60s okay well hold on a second in 1995 you may have briefly had a strong labor report but in 1995 1994 95 and 96 if you read the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee transcripts you will find what I saw as well which is for those three years they do nothing but talk about how the labor market is so freaking tight we might be causing a wage price spiral and they only cut rates because they're like all right we don't see the wage price spiral yet the jobs Market's pretty tight but you know and people aren't going out there to hire they actually called some businesses discouraged as as a reason for why they weren't hiring uh but anyway so then you look at this and he goes okay Perkins rule over here sees the uh Perkins rule fals positive in 1995 and and over there in the 60s so it's clearly less functional than the PSM rule uh but let's let's read what he says the Perkins rule isn't fullprof but that's not the point the important thing is that when you look at every time the P rule is triggered since World War II there were only three occasions where payrolls were not already negative 1970 1974 and 1980 usually when the S rule triggers the Perkins rule has already triggered that matters because it's the opposite of what's happening today the latest triggering of the P rule looks very different to the average recessionary experience so he's making an argument here that basically he is also saying that like hey if if we TR if this should be a bad flag our our our indicator should have already been firing even if it's a false positive it should have fired before the Som Rule and so you know his rule is made up of of slightly different measures and we we don't know how useful or functional it actually is but I want again you to show or or you to see why uh is he saying this just to be clear because I I don't think I actually say it as clearly in this video so I wanted to edit this in just to add a little bit more clarity the Perkins rule is when the unemployment report comes in negative now why is that important well the Perkins rule basically Triggers on a very simple basis it's when the unemployment Port whatever it is comes out and it comes in with any negative read so that is going to introduce a lot more volatility so if we go jobs report St Louis Fred let's just say and uh we get the uh change uh in payrolls we could just open up the chart and look and go all right cool when is it negative and how often does it go negative well an easy way to do that is you look for the change in thousands of people on a monthly frequency so you just have to edit that a little bit on the uh St Louis Fred website and once you do that uh then you could actually see how noisy it could be that you're negative so uh it's a little easier to get rid of the pandemic here because then you could see over here oh look you were actually negative in 2003 uh in April of 2003 but the FED had already capitulated at this point you know you were bailing out you you were leaving the market at the point you had a negative report it looks like here 1997 -2k you had a negative report right there - 7,000 in 1996 so that's another false flag you had a uh- 15,000 over here I I don't know that these oneoff hits are that useful because look how many false reads you get false false false false false false false false is Perkins rule like by the time we get the Perkins rule in this economy we're going to have some major problems because look at this what you're really looking for now is this downtrend that's happening here right I mean even if you don't believe in technical analysis I think we could all argue these are lower highs and lower lows it's a down Channel now in case that's not particularly obvious let's just smooth this out to the quarterly okay is that more obvious of downtrend let's go let's go semiannual do you see the downtrend now uh keep in mind we only have the first half on here so it doesn't actually show the deterioration yet uh in the second quarter and so when you throw that in you get that other pull down over here so it doesn't look that flat and then obviously if you go out onto the monthly uh you could see you know we are somewhat stabilizing there in that June July August period but a lot of people at this going come on man this crap's probably already negative anyway we can't believe their numbers but imagine if their crazy numbers go negative ooh it's going to be dirty the trend is not your friend and the Perkins rule is probably going to trigger pretty dang soon unless of course you think 150 BP cut all of a sudden is going to lead to some boom in in hiring so I actually wrote this down you know a few weeks ago and he says uh there are several problems interpreting the psalm rule today this is is not a regular business cycle again this is this time is different the jobless rate comes from many from the household survey which looks artificially weak compared to payrolls and so this is where I say many would dispute this given the households was more accurate post the BLS revisions so I'm actually kind of you know suggesting here that like hey like maybe the household survey is actually more accurate but than the you know payrolls report but all the data is just a mess it's hard to know what to believe strong labor force growth has driven most of the rise in the unemployment rate it is harder to tell a reflexivity story when employment is still growing so this right here is a labor force participation reference that you know even if the participation rate stays the same if you have a larger group of people participating then you actually have more employment but it looks like the unemployment rate is going up so this is where he's saying I'm not saying everything is great investors should fade the RW he's just saying the US Labor Market does look increasingly precarious and is not great when you go into every employment report wondering if this data is going to show gener you know actual cracks genuine cracks the FED needs to get ahead of this remember this is from uh um you know about three weeks ago but the point again of showing you this was just to say that his take is the Perkins rule hasn't triggered yet and the Perkins rule is going to trigger if you end up getting substantially lower payroll reads in other words we could just be one payroll report away from his per Rule triggering and then you're you're starting to get to where you're triggering every kind of uh of of recessionary warning signal you could potentially ask for uh so uh anyway uh he says uh just so you see it here uh the Perkins rule the idea that it is a cont contraction in employment that signals recession not a gradual trick trickle higher in the jobless rate right right right right so but this gradual contraction employment is already what we're seeing from the Challenger report from the ism reports from the conference board reports so anyway out of all of this what do I think like what's my bottom line takeaway I'm watching this guy because he's a bull and I think he's got logic I I agree with his tools I agree it like things are really concerning when it comes to labor right now but I also agree that there is a shot at a soft Landing he probably puts a soft landing at you know a 60% chance you know I put a recession at more like a 70% chance so we're kind of flipped on that but when that guy capitulates and goes bearish that that's that's when I know it's uh it's about to get real and so we're not quite there yet but as you can see the way he talks you know in his in his report three weeks ago he's like I don't want to you know like play down the r word and then what's he saying this time this time he's going uh three things are bothering me the sudden rather surprising relapse in manufacturing labor market trends and top of cycle stuff like the Fed so again uh like when you combine all of this I just can't help myself but go like I don't know man is this time to fomo by right now is this fomo like all in like I think the risk is way hi uh if if we can get give me like two or three labor reports you know give me give me the September labor report from what I'm seeing is going to be trash uh let me see if the estimates are out by the way give me the September labor report give me the October labor report in November and maybe even the December labor report and if you really want to be sure there's no recession give me the January labor report because that's when you get like the seasonal layoffs and the start of 2025 layoffs although by November and the end of October you should already have the war notices for people who are supposed to get fired in January so that's why I really think the end of October is going to be really really interesting like I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of earnings where they're like yeah we missed on earnings and we're going to lay off a bunch of people in January oopsies Maybe not maybe earnings will will surprise nicely but you know it's not going to take a lot to get these Bulls to flip and once we get nasty unemployment data that's when they flip and then it's too late to try to pick up a hedge you know I look like I know I had a great day trade today I I I doubled you know my money in in day trade I don't know it was like it was somewhere between $25 or $30,000 which is great that's a freaking great day I don't always have great days I can't guarantee that the days are always going to be like that but it was it was a good trade and and I hope to send more alerts like that that's my goal and if you want to see what I'm trading make sure you use that flash sale coupon code that's going on but but also how I'm positioning with Hedges and how I talk about Hedges on a daily basis not shorts but hedges so let's see what's going on with jobs so the jobs report comes out the beginning of October let me see if there's an estimate for it yet unemployment rate it's expected to stay flat at 4.2 dude change in private payrolls is expected to be 120 change in nonfarm payrolls expect to be 140 if for some reason you get like a 95,000 or like a sub 100 handle this markets get freaking tank yeah I don't know because you don't actually need like generally aligned with the unemployment rate going up but you could actually have a stable unemployment rate and potentially see less hiring if people are just more sticky at their jobs and I think that's still going to be enough to create some poopy dopiness so I'm nervous for the volatility I'm watching what the Bulls are doing every single day I'm trying to read what the Bulls are saying cuz trust me I I got the bear case down all right folks I love you all we'll see you in the next one hey what you got Ken I'm ready for you
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