저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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미국 소매판매·PPI 등 물가 지표가 예상보다 강하게 나왔지만 시장은 오히려 상승 전환. 10년물 금리 보합, 2년물 하락, 장단기 금리차 역전 완화 흐름을 해석. 연준 최종금리 기대는 소폭 하락해 추가 인상 가능성이 낮아졌다고 봄. 식료품 가격은 하락하기 어렵다는 점도 언급. 종목·자산별 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
yeah yeah I don't know let's do this get the opening bell oh man today is going to be an interesting day because we just had some data come out and I think you just potentially caused a flip-flop in how markets are responding this is really bizarre so the buckle up for this because I want you to think for a moment don't look at what the market is doing right now although you probably already have and I want you to think to yourself if I told you what I'm about to tell you what do you think the market would ordinarily do okay so ordinarily what would happen if Europe was afraid of inflation American retail sales came in way stronger than expected and inflation numbers both CPI and PPI came in stronger than expected based on your experience over the last two years what would happen well generally what would happen is everything would tank the stock market would tank bond yields would Skyrocket and everybody would be freaking out about how much more the Federal Reserve has to raise rates and now something really bizarre is happening and of course the day has just started so we don't know but we do know that the data is out and I'll tell you there is something weird going on you ready for this first I'll come up for the data stagnation crisis in Europe Europe naturally raises rates again as expected about 67 chance that Europe was going to raise rates another quarter BP and that's exactly what they did American retail sales the survey was a one percent increase we got a point six percent increase now a lot of that could have had to do with natural gas and gasoline and energy expenses but it's okay because we have this category here that says retail sales X Auto and gas we were actually expecting negative 0.1 so in other words a shrinkage of uh well Auto and gas uh and all well a retail sales excluding Auto and gas and we actually got an increase of 0.2 so we beat by point three percent retail sales control group expecting negative point one we got point one then we got initial jobless claims where we were looking for 225 000 people to file for unemployment and no we only got two hundred and twenty thousand so in other words stronger retail sales better jobs numbers continuing claims also coming in two thousand less than expected although the revision was about five thousand hotter so call that neutral then we get PPI producer price inflation which some people are like I don't know man PBI that comes in high that you know is eventually going to lead to well CBI coming in hot so you know we got to be careful over here right okay fine so what do we get PPI final demand expected to be 0.4 wait 0.7 pbix food and energy we do get a match at 0.2.2 but PBI X food energy and trade also comes in hot at 0.3 which is your core in PPI even the year over year number X of food energy and trade comes in at three percent versus 2.7 percent okay all of this ordinarily ordinarily and this is what is absolutely insane okay I had to get myself the Siri Brew potion out mostly because I got a lot of crap going on because we just got word from finra and from the SEC on house act my real estate startup we got a ton of emails for the real estate coupon expiring tomorrow the financial advisor and I gotta go leave right now to go on a big mission oh my gosh anyway the point is I'm like frazzled because I got so much stuff going on just in these next few days and here I am getting what is ordinarily bad data right the last basically two years when we get data like this we're like oh damn we s we screwed son but instead what's actually happening and this is what is bizarre well what's actually happening is the following all of the indices are green oil is green treasury yields on the 10-year are basically flat and if I go to the two-year yield treasury yields are actually negative so in other words the the 10 years kind of slipping up a little bit in the two years coming down a little bit which is sort of in the direction of uninverting the yield curve which this is like wait a minute this is like good news is turning into good news dare I say that but it's not just that listen to some of this so uh Nick T shared some delicious Juicy and Delicious commentary from the Walmart CEO which we've known this we read the earnings calls all the companies we do this in our course member lives as well merchandise prices are lower than a year ago but don't hold your breath on declines in food or groceries oh so in other words the Walmart CEO is like yeah there's deflation Happening Now relative to last year which is obviously still substantially more expensive than it was pre-covered but you actually have deflation according to the CEO of Walmart but he says don't hold your breath on groceries it felt to me like because of inflation things were going to be tougher this year than they had been it feels like though because of employment wages and some disinflation things are kind of hanging in there says the CEO of Walmart but beyond that listen to this 12-month uh core good CPI is literally where it was before the pandemic and the curve of housing disinflation on both a 12-month and three month curve is just finally starting to roll over and much of that is still ahead of us that's why now people are thinking okay the Federal Reserve is going to still hold in September in fact Nick D says this doesn't change anything for December although the jury is still out for November and December we're still not convinced we need to raise again but then you have more economists now talking about grocery prices because rightfully so people are pissed off that groceries are still so expensive and I've kind of been pounding my fist on the table regularly going hey man look they ain't coming down again and and people like what do you mean it's not coming down like grocery prices don't have to come down it's not fair like Jerome Powell he's got to fight for us right no no he doesn't he he's not fighting for you okay we just have to be clear about that and he's not going to come rescue you but what's fascinating is an economist looks at grocery prices which in 2023 are basically flat but compared to 2019 are still up like 17 18 percent and economists realize that wait a minute we've actually never had declines in grocery prices from today going all the way back to like 1950.
so in other words we have not ever seen grocery prices go down in the last three quarters of a century so no grocery prices probably are not going to go down but will they stop going up hopefully okay fine so now we're caught up on this what is this this critical shift well I mean you should know what it is by now but I do want to also quickly remind us what the FED terminal rate is because remember the FED terminal rate and how much we're pricing into that fed terminal rate like we explained yesterday I personally am paying a lot of attention to this number and it actually fell it fell this morning after the data okay yesterday after hot CPI the number was sitting at 5.46 now 5.439 basically 5.44 it fell two basis points the odds of another hike at all in other words basically the market took two basis points and it's like yeah now after this data we're good with a cap we're there we're there we're at Peak I think what's actually happening with my dragon chain body over here I think what's actually happening is markets are finally flipping they're finally saying damn all right look we were expecting inflation to come skyrocketing again in the economy to go into a recession but it's time to roll and throw in the towel because inflation's not skyrocketing look is is it perfect is it immaculately going to zero no but is it so bad that we're going to get Paul volckerd into a recession now all right maybe it's time to go long stonks then who knows uh that I think is why we are seeing this unpricing of high yields uh although we are still well I shouldn't really say on pricing of high yields I should say stability but I think the unpricing of the uh 210 is uh starting to happen the 210 is obviously the yield curve we're at 73 basis points to the negative side still pretty dang negative but it's interesting because in the last few weeks data has come in hotter than expected including inflation data coming in hotter than expected but rather than going deeper into reversion and a likelihood of recession we're actually going out of reversion we're trending in that direction yields feel like they've hit a ceiling oil prices are skyrocketing and despite oil prices skyrocketing you have a fed that's like now we we might be done yeah we're probably done like what it is the opposite of what we've been experiencing for the last two years and that's something to keep in mind like clearly that is a style of a flip here for two years every bit of good news was bad news and I'm about to say it now all of a sudden good news and even some slight bad news like some slight misses is good turning into good news no knock on wood I don't know if that'll last but think about what I just said for a moment good news is good news again and even some bad news is like well that's not that bad and then things go what today is the first day I mean obviously we've been talking about the Nike Swoosh you know this for for almost a year now where it's like look I think people are slowly going to probably saying that inflation's going to go away that it's going to end up being transitory if you said that a year ago you ended up getting punched in the face if you say it today people like yeah okay it makes sense I don't know man I still think there's gonna be recession but uh yeah yo kind of the inflation's gonna go away yeah you know that's like the attitude is massively changed but beyond the attitude massively changing it's Crystal Clear that the way the market is behaving today on worse CPI data yesterday worst PPI data worst retail sales data well a better retail sales status so in other words a beat on eco data but uh a Miss on where we want it on the inflation data the fact that all of that is leading the market to actually go green I mean the nasdaq's up at the time of this recording 44 basis points Tesla's up over half of a percent uh I mean everything on my Charter screen and face is great okay look end face is green between you myself and you know the dragon median helmet right there that's all you need to know like that stock is never green what anyway check out the coupon code linked down below it expires tomorrow I got stuff to do I'll see you later I'm
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