저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
연준이 인플레이션 억제를 위해 수요 파괴와 경기침체를 유발하고 있으며, 경기침체 신호(GDPNow 마이너스, 소비심리 22년래 최저, 저축률 하락)가 뚜렷한데도 연준은 이를 부인하고 있다고 주장. 연준의 이중책무 포기와 긴축 강화로 이익 침체(earnings recession)와 채권·주식 하락이 우려되며, 시장도 이를 반영 중이라는 진단. 연준 발언을 믿기 어렵다는 비판적 입장.
다듬은 글
well folks in my opinion the fed is either panicking or lying to us about the coming recession and the stock market realizes it that's why stocks are falling as the fed meeting once again ends and once again bond yields are rising with the 10-year now rising up to 3.45 now maybe that's just because uh you know last year the fed spent the entire year telling us that inflation was transitory while the delta variant was destroying our supply chains and we printed even more money but don't worry now any kind of recession is sure to be transitory because after all the consumer and markets are very strong consider what the fed told us yesterday the fed told us yesterday the consumer is strong and the economy is doing very well you look at this chart it's a chart of consumer sentiment in the united states being at 22 year lows it is literally at the lowest point since the dot-com bubble didn't even bother people and it is not even as low as the 2008 recession that's right we are the lowest point in the last 22 years on the chart people are worried and they're worried because they realize that not only do we have the hottest inflation that we've had in four decades but they realized the fed might not know what the hell they're doing and so as you can see with inflation we had a peak in march followed by a decline in april which was good but unfortunately another higher peak in may in terms of inflation and so while jerome powell talks about strength we're kind of scratching our heads going wait a minute why then is inflation going the wrong way and why is consumer sentiment so low and on top of that you've got the u.s savings rate as a percentage of personal disposable income at just 4.4 percent yet again another metric that is at a low since 2008 where it was actually slightly lower but also quite freaking low and so it does make you wonder why does the fed jerome powell and their bodies why do they all think that gdp is going to end at 1.7 at the end of the year it doesn't quite make sense even the atlanta fed's gdp now tracking indicator doesn't seem to agree with the federal reserve themselves the gdp now indicator went negative in q1 and guess what we ended up having for gdp in q1 a negative read guess what the gdp now data hit again today negative we are once again negative you can see it here on the chart now according to this chart on screen if the gdp now chart is correct we will fall into a recession because after all two quarters of negative gdp is a recession and see the fed is telling us oh but don't worry don't worry we have no plans of inducing a recession in fact they want to be very clear that we have no plan to induce a recession not trying to reduce induce a recession now let's be clear about that we're trying to achieve uh two percent inflation consistent with a strong labor market that's that's what we're trying to do well the stock market doesn't believe that the fed can avoid this and the stock market knows that if we compare all the way back to 1929 and all the crashes that have happened since 1929 in times of a recession at least with how mature we are in terms of this crash now we have at least two more large lows to hit before we can actually say we've hit bottom now if we don't have a recession maybe we're already at the bottom the markets aren't convinced that we're going to be able to avoid a recession especially as we get sledge hammered by the federal reserve with a 75 basis point hike now consider this the federal reserve told us in may that 75 basis points of an increase for the fomc of federal funds rate was off of the table and yesterday what did we get 75 basis point now we believe this was leaked to the media on monday via like a text or a phone call because the fed was in their blackout period and they wanted to kind of prep the markets and so then they prep the markets markets priced in the 75 and sure enough here's your 75.
that was after the cpi data showed a meaningful and broad-based increase in inflation data not a decrease and this wasn't just certain categories it was literally everything and we saw a bump in consumer expectations for inflation before the cpi read even came out which means our next read for consumer expectations for inflation will probably be even worse now powell of course says this was him adapting well markets aren't convinced that he's done adapting and even though yesterday jerome powell promised that well i shouldn't say promised but set the expectation that quote we do not expect moves of this size to be common and that this is an unusually large hike the fed may have lost some credibility because again here we are looking at consumers and looking at the economy in a much substantially weaker position than what the fed seems to be telling us about and so how can we believe that they're going to be credible to say that 75 basis points are unusually large when it's entirely possible in the july meeting we could end up with a 75 or even 100 basis point hike and that'll just have to say well we had to adapt folks there's no cheering with the fed until inflation actually starts coming down but it gets worse because the federal reserve changed its tune a little bit on something else as well but first folks i want to give you some free options flow and data that's because now we've partnered with attendees to give you a superior reddit browser that puts everything in one place charts and stock tickers you name it all in one place and all you have to do is go to medkevin.com tandy's to check it out seriously my favorite part is the free options algo flow this is the kind of stuff that usually costs like forty dollars plus a month but attendees is giving it away for free so now you can identify unusual option contracts that are prime for further moves to the upside or downside in certain stocks and if you connect your brokerage account attendees will even personalize the app to your positions you'll get personalized charts tickers reddit feeds all tailored to your portfolio using live data everything so you don't need to switch apps everything you need for due diligence all in one place and right now it's only available for the apple app store ios go to metkevin.com attendees but android is coming soon just make sure you go to the description in the link down below download the attendees app and connect your brokerage to take advantage of the free options flow data available now again go to medken.com attendees to check them out so what's another reason that the fed is freaking markets out right now well yesterday we kind of brushed this off it had to do with the federal reserve kind of dropping their mention that they want to keep a strong labor market the market's finally realizing however now and i kind of mentioned that this was odd in my summary video yesterday market is finally realizing that jay pal is giving up on the dual mandate remember maximum employment and stable prices well we've got maximum employment in fact we've got more than maximum employment so jpr's kind of like yeah that's not really our goal right now our goal right now is just inflation getting inflation down so we don't really have a central bank that has a dual mandate right now we have a single mandate federal reserve and that is to crush inflation and the easiest way to crush inflation is by destroying demand and quite frankly inducing a recession even though japan tells us don't worry that's not the goal we know this is pretty much what it's going to take and that's unfortunate and that's what the market is pricing in now now even if the fed tells us they want to see you know drops in cpi for them to relax on their rate hike cycle just a few months ago the federal reserve was telling us you know we're really just looking at the month-over-month data and core cpi as long as core cpi and the month over month data comes down okay maybe we could pause on our rate hikes well jerome powell once again flip-flopped on this and now he's telling us that no we actually want headline inflation numbers to come down sure core and month over month data matters but we really want that core to come down this is really i'm sorry the headline number to come down this is really bad because if powell wants the headline number to come down the only way to achieve that is by you know with monetary policy since we can't really control commodities and control supply the only way to achieve that is with straight-up demand destruction like folks if you are tired of high oil prices and gas prices which i'm sure you are in high energy prices and the fed is as well and we want to see that headline inflation go down which is heavily driven by energy prices and food prices bonding prices the only way to drive that down is with straight up demand destruction and the fed has to get people to drive less spend less money now california seems to have a different opinion california seems to think we should give everybody 400 so they can go buy more gas and continue having demand so why drive less when you could just get free money from the state of california oh freaking california folks like it's so idiotic it's so moronic i'm sorry i just had to take a little tangent there to say that but you know what the good news is the good news is we're kind of like tesla in that if you check out you know you're going to get the best price because tesla just raised its prices by about six thousand dollars across the board for well i mean not for every single model i think the model three was up about twenty five hundred dollars and the max price increase was six thousand dollars for vehicles but here you go elon musk again raising prices it's almost kind of like the best investment so far this year is a car like a tesla car and not actual tesla stock which is quite ironic because usually it's the opposite usually cars go down in value but anyway if you want to lock in the price of a tesla you pre-order it now if you want to lock in the price of with continued lectures and perspectives and a ton of research coming to you via beautifully put together lectures that teach you how to fish rather than just give you fish well make sure to use the coupon code before the end of next week which is next friday check it out all right folks let's keep going over here with the fed see the problem with the fed right now is that the stock market is not just pissed that the fed is you know dropping labor from their arguments and focused on uh inflation so heavily but it's that the fed doesn't even realize that by creating the well i'm sure they realize but they're certainly not talking about it but by creating the kind of demand destruction that they need to get inflation down we will maybe not have a recession fine maybe they're right about that but we'll have an earnings recession which is just as bad if anything it's actually worse for stocks quite frankly i'd rather have a not earnings recession and a regular recession than have an earnings recession and uh well i'm confusing myself here the point is i don't want an earnings recession on stocks because then stocks plummet you have a regular recession but you still have earnings going up eps is going up well maybe that's not that bad because eps is strongly correlated with long-term gains for stocks the problem is stocks are just getting reamed and so is the bond market i mean look at for example peloton a stock that's already down 90 now their bonds are selling for 70 cents on the dollar revlon just filed for bankruptcy and to add insult to injury people are still raising prices contributing to inflation yes that includes tesla but folks it's not just the united states germany just saw the biggest increase in five-year yields since 2011.
the swiss national bank just dropped a bombshell surprise of a 50 basis point hike nobody was expecting that the ecb just had an emergency meeting where they're planning on announcing a new tool to announce or you know something to basically help deal with surging bond yields because they realize the bond market's collapsing they also had the following to say which was not good they said quote inflation may end up being more entrenched than we think and sentiment is worsening great last thing we want is central banks telling us uh maybe inflation's more entrenched than we thought it was on top of that the bank of england is expected to hike rates today the uh reserve bank of australia is signaling a period of substantial rate increases ahead but folks don't worry we won't be hearing a lot from the fed for a while right we should be good i mean we just had the fed meeting right wrong the fed speak calendar is back so i've got it written down let's see here fed speak calendar powell talks at a conference tomorrow on saturday waller speaks on tuesday mester and barkinspeak on wednesday powell speaks in the senate and evans barkin and hardest being then on thursday powell speaks before the house oh my gosh i kind of like the blackout period better because this is a disaster but then again maybe ben bernanke was right the federal reserve thinks that monetary policy is 98 talk and 2 action and folks this is all a complete disaster and the fed is in my opinion either just panicking entirely wrong about the strength of the markets or the economy or they're just straight up lying to us because that summary of economic projections sure was a revision but it wasn't a real revision
Comments 0