저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 찰리 멍거·칼 아이칸·마이클 베리·레이 달리오 등 유명 투자자들의 최근 포트폴리오와 발언을 소개하며, 금리 인상과 인플레이션으로 인해 시장이 추가 하락할 것이라는 약세 관점을 전달한다. [멍거 포트폴리오] 2022년 10월 5일 기준 13F 보고서상 개인 포트폴리오 소개. 버크셔해서웨이 외에 Bank of America(42%), Wells Fargo(39%), Alibaba(15%), US Bancorp(3%), PKX, Costco(0.22%) 등을 언급. 구체적 전망은 없음. [칼 아이칸] 2022년 상반기 자산가치 30% 상승 주장. 많은 자산이 싸고 더 싸질 것이라고 봄. 정유·비료 등 인플레이션 수혜 원자재 관련주로 CVR Energy(CVI)를 언급하며 주목하라고 함. 인플레이션은 로마 제국 몰락처럼 치유가 어렵고, 통화 발행과 대규모 부채로 인한 인플레가 승리할 것이라 봄. 인플레이션감축법은 탄소 감축 필요성은 인정하나 과도하다고 비판. 더 큰 하락(최악은 아직 오지 않음)을 전망. [마이클 베리] 2022년 10월 1일 발언 인용. 2000년 이후와 비교해 패시브 투자 버블이 과열 상태이며, 고성장 기술주는 약세, 가치주·잉여현금흐름 기업은 강세를 예상. 현금흐름 적자이면서 시가총액 10억 달러 이상인 미국 상장사 218개를 과대평가로 지목. 시장 전반에 극도로 약세적 입장이며 본인은 미국 주식 포트폴리오를 사실상 청산했다고 언급. [연준 관련] 베리는 연준이 1970년대 실패를 피하려다 1930년대 대공황형 연준이 될 위험이 있다고 봄. 금리 인상 프로그램이 경제에 미칠 영향을 우려. [레이 달리오] 금리가 2~4.5%에서 인상되면 미국 주가가 20% 하락할 것이라는 경고. 인플레 억제를 위해 금리가 4.5~6% 상단까지 오를 필요가 있어 보인다고 함. 주택 등 금리 민감 부문은 약화되고 있으나 소비와 고용은 아직 강하며, 상당한 경기 수축이 필요하지만 현금·부 수준이 높아 시간이 걸릴 것으로 봄. 전반적으로 '붕괴'를 향해 가고 있다고 결론. [워런 버핏 관련 언급] 주가는 금리 추가 인상 시 20% 더 하락할 수 있다는 취지를 전함(영상 자막 상 'Warren' 표기, 실제 발언자는 불명확). 버크셔가 많은 현금을 보유하며 기회를 기다리고 있다고 언급. [면책] 정보 제공 목적이며 투자 판단은 전문가 상담 및 자체 조사를 권고. 투자에는 손실 위험이 있음.
다듬은 글
here's what the legendary investors are doing and saying always trying to bring you the most crucial financial information in the most efficient way possible we do not waste time on this channel first off Charlie Munger here is Charlie munger's current portfolio this is his personal portfolio as of October 5th 2022 in his most recent 13f filing all Nate five stocks other than Berkshire Hathaway Bank of America Corps very interesting 42 Wells Fargo 39 Alibaba group Holdings 15 U.S bank or three percent pkx Costco 0.22 very interesting regardless just sharing with you one of the most brilliant investment minds of all time is currently investing it thought you would appreciate that here's an update from Carl Icahn and absolutely genius investor Carl I got two investors the worst is yet to come now why is he a genius the stock market saw its worst first half of the year since 1970 but icon whose career Finance goes back to 1961 and who has made his Mark as an activist shareholder has had a robust 2022 by contrast the net asset value of zycon Enterprise has increased by 30 percent in the first six months of 2022 and I think he just made 250 million or so on his acquisition of Twitter shares so he's just an absolute genius and this is what he's saying I think a lot of things are cheap and they're going to get cheaper he said later pointy companies and the oil refining and fertilizer businesses so he's on the inflation hard asset commodity trade he mentioned CBR energy CVI in particular as ones to watch so feel free to do some research on that asset not surprisingly icon said inflation was playing a significant role in the Market's downturn inflation is a terrible thing he said observing that it led to the downfall of the Roman Empire you can't cure it so right now we're in this big battle for inflation we all know what's going to ultimately win it's going to be currency to base that you really can't cure money Printing and inflation in big Empires that have massive debt as for the Recently approved inflation reduction act and it's aimed to reduce carbon emissions icon said he understood the need to curb carbon but thought the legislation went too far he likened it to a sick patient who has prescribed too much medication if you take 100 pills at once you'll die he said so he is still seeing more Doom and Gloom on the horizon saying the worst is yet to come so he understands how sticky the rising interest rate situation is and how devastating it is for financial markets then you have Michael burry another absolute genius investor he was right about the financial crisis he was right about the short squeezes he actually bet on the short squeezes in GameStop and Bed Bath and Beyond so it was correct on the upside there he was right about the financial collapse during the pandemic and now he is saying this this was said on October 1st another feeling I'm getting is mid to late 2000 free cash flow totally on sale and ignored while former momentum stocks are coming down but not far enough and darling better businesses still had a ways to fall value was about to take off for years despite more crash on the way he is bearish high growth technology and bullish value difference between now and 2000 is the passive investing bubble that inflated steadily over the last decade all theaters are overcrowded and the only way anyone can get out is by trampling each other and still the door is only so big clearly extremely bearish on this Market this morning there were still 218 primary stock listings in the United States with a market cap over one billion dollars in ebitda less than negative 100 million pretty much saying they're overvalued you can't have a company worth over a billion with negative cash flow in the hundreds of millions 29 of them had market caps over 10 billion totaling 655 billion saying it again all the silliness must go we know we pretty much just liquidated his entire U.S stock portfolio so just another bear the FED is so afraid of being the FED of the 1970s that they're becoming the FED of the 1930s so he is saying that the Federal Reserve doesn't want to lose to inflation so they're really trying to tighten down and crash the economy we've covered in other videos on this channel and he's saying that because they're taking such a strong hand they're about to become the Federal Reserve of the Great Depression go look at pictures from the Great Depression in the 1930s not pretty and so he realizes very well what the impact of the federal reserve's massive rate hype program is going to have on the economy one last legendary investor who's right more often than he's wrong billionaire investor Ray value Warren stocks could drop another 20 percent with further interest rate Rises so he agrees with Michael burry he agrees with Carl ICA founder of one of the world's biggest hedge funds Bridgewater Associates Mr dalio has issued the warning recently at a social media post saying an interest rate rise from range two to four and a half percent in the U.S will cause a 20 decline on Equity prices it looks like interest rates will have to rise a lot toward the higher end of 4.5 to 6 percent to fight inflation absolutely devastating ER now seeing that happen for example while we are seeing a significant weakening the interest rate and debt dependent sectors like housing we are still seeing relatively strong consumption spending and employment my guesstimate is that a significant economic contraction will be required but it will take a while to happen because cash levels and wealth levels are now relatively high so they can be used to support spending until they are drawn down so we are just heading towards a collapse According to some of the most Brilliant Minds of the world we talked about Charlie Munger he's always long he's always finding value but I do know that Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a lot of cash just waiting for the right time to pick up a lot of these assets we will stay on top of this Market this discussion is for informational purposes only please consult the certified financial planner for making any decisions about investing and do your own research before making any decisions Investments are risky and you can lose lots of money in them
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