저자: Elliot · 외국인
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비트코인 지갑 약 1/3이 양자 취약 상태이며 업그레이드 불가라는 Tom Lee 발언을 인용. 비트코인 과매도(RSI 역대 저점 수준)를 근거로 공포 시 매수 기회라 주장하고, ICP가 업그레이드 가능성·커뮤니티 결속력 덕분에 장기적으로 강력하다고 주장. 다만 ICP 컴퓨트 비용 5배 인상(Mission 70)에는 자신이 동의하지 않는다고 언급.
다듬은 글
you know, there's this quantum risk that is more Bitcoin specific and about a third of Bitcoin wallets are not upgradable. So, they're actually quantum vulnerable. A nation state would just steal those 1/3 of the Bitcoins. I support Mission 70, but I'm not convinced that a 5x cost increase right now is the right move.
This is Elliot from Early Stage Investor. We are in the middle of an epic bloodbath in crypto assets. The relative strength index on Bitcoin just hit a level that it hasn't hit since the pandemic. The relative strength index measures whether or not an asset is oversold or overbought. When it's low, it means it's ridiculously oversold and it's due for an epic bounce.
We haven't been at this level since again, when Bitcoin was $3,000. ICP falling as well. Generally, when there's mass panic and hysteria is a good time to buy. So, what we're going to dive into in this video is whether or not ICP could potentially provide massive life-changing returns. We're going to see what Tom Lee thinks and we're going to look at some other analysis.
But first, here's a quote from Stanley Druckenmiller, one of the greatest investors of all time, talking about Paul Tudor Jones, who's another one of the greatest investors of all time. I got a call from Paul Tudor Jones and he says, "Do you know that when Bitcoin went from 17,000 to 3,000 that 86% of the people that owned it at 17,000 never sold it.
86% of the people that bought Bitcoin at 17,000 did not sell it after it hit 3,000. So, here's something with a finite supply and 86% of the owners are religious zealots." That caused the Paul Tudor Jones to go incredibly bullish on Bitcoin and he made massive gains on it buying it at the right time, buying it low.
And I can't think of a more zealot-like community than the ICP community. A massive, massive, global community of smart people that don't care about price, that have seen massive drawdowns in ICP, and haven't sold it, and fit the description of what Stanley Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones are calling religious zealots.
That is the key indicator that a project can absolutely skyrocket. Right? It's about the network. It's about the community. Because whenever ICP skyrockets, it literally just catches the entire crypto world by storm. Everyone looks at it. The narrative switches quickly. It is a very, very, very, very visible asset.
So, the community is rock solid. It's a hardened community. The pain and the downturns have made it massively resilient. So, that's incredibly bullish. What about the technology? It doesn't just have a massive, global, powerful community, resilient community. It also has technology. Let's dive into the technology of ICP by analyzing this clip from Tom Lee.
As you know, there's this quantum risk that is more Bitcoin specific, cuz quantum developments are are accelerating. Yes. And about a third of Bitcoin wallets are not upgradeable. So, they're actually quantum vulnerable. Okay. Can I say a dumb question? I don't know anything about this, obviously. If if quantum computing was a thing and we could hack the Bitcoin blockchain, why wouldn't they hack, I don't know, the central bank or everybody's Chase account?
Like, why would they go after Bitcoin first? Uh yes, so quantum operates like more like an ASICs, like a brute force of of a repetitive calculation. So, it can break encryption. So, Bitcoin's encryption is what can be broken, but banks hopefully would be upgrading all their customer passwords. Make force you to do a new type of password.
And that's how you avoid quantum vulnerability. The thing is all like a lot of Bitcoin wallets like Satoshis haven't ever been upgraded. So, they And of course, Satoshis wallet you upgrade a wallet to make it so that the the blockchain itself the that vulnerability to quantum computing will be protected against?
You can you'd have to fork Bitcoin. I mean but or you have to contact the guy and say like upgrade your wallet. If it's like a ledger wallet or whatever. So but I'm saying if you upgrade your wallet you're safe but the price might not be safe. Well if you You might be safe from losing your Bitcoin. But if there's a mass hacking event or there's some way that and I like Michael not an expert but if a lot of nodes just go away because they're worried about that risk or if somebody even comes somebody influential comes out and says I have information and I think like literally there's a quantum computer right now in the process of hacking the the the Bitcoin blockchain like that you can upgrade your wallet but the price is going lower.
Well one if someone developed a quantum hack Yeah. they wouldn't reveal it. A nation state would just steal those one third of the Bitcoins. Until somebody starts to notice. Yeah um Now Ethereum for instance upgrades twice a year. So it's quan they're already developing quantum resistance. So like a lot of blockchains are going to be quantum resistant.
Okay. Um Just the way like Chase will upgrade all their encryption. So he's literally saying that a bunch of the legacy Bitcoin wallets that aren't capable of upgrading their security are currently massively vulnerable to a quantum hack and it's very very true. If you look at quantum computing the smartest people on the planet are currently developing them and nation states are developing them.
North Korea is a nation state. And so they're not going to let people know their progress. They're just going to quietly create the threat and something is going to get hacked and Bitcoin is very vulnerable because the algorithm, unlike maybe a central bank's cybersecurity algorithm, is specifically vulnerable to quantum computing.
That means it's probably going to be the first thing that gets hacked. That means it could potentially crash. Tom Lee is bullish on upgradeable blockchains. There is no more upgradeable blockchain than ICP. The community could vote anytime. There could be a motion to upgrade to patch the internet computer blockchain very quickly via the decentralized autonomous organization, the on-chain governance.
So, all we need is one of those proposals to upgrade the internet computer blockchain. So, we will be one of the most likely blockchains to defend itself from quantum computing risk cuz we're so adaptable, so upgradeable. That is what makes ICP so ridiculously bullish long-term because we can evolve and grow and change.
Whereas some of these legacy blockchains that don't do that much, including Bitcoin, are massively vulnerable. So, just based on that analysis right there, Tom Lee would say, "Sell Bitcoin, buy an upgradeable blockchain." He is the chairman of Bitmain, which is an Ethereum treasury company. So, obviously he's very biased.
He can't talk about other blockchains like ICP. He's going to talk about Ethereum, but the fact remains there is a massive threat right now when it comes to Bitcoin's security, and very few people are talking about it. He is talking about it. A lot of people listen to him. He's all over CNBC. He's all over Wall Street, right?
Think about when that narrative gets out, that Bitcoin isn't as upgradeable quickly as ICP or as some of these other more resilient, more advanced blockchains. That is massively bullish for ICP long-term. So, not only do we have a powerhouse community, a resilient community like early Bitcoin. So, we have all the benefits of early Bitcoin, but we have none of the risks of later stage Bitcoin.
That is absolutely massive. And here's an example from Dominic Williams of one of the upgrades taking place. Mission 70 white paper. This is February 4th, 2026. Proposing to 5x the cost of ICP's on-chain compute as provided sovereign cloud will remain very competitive. So, he's going to increase the cost of ICP's compute.
As in cloud engine demand increases, right? As more and more people use caffeine AI, the cost is going to go up. And the more the ICP world computer is used, the more cycles are burnt and the more deflationary the asset becomes, right? The scarcer it becomes because the more it's used, the more tokens are taken out of circulation.
So, the cost goes up, tokens burnt goes up, the amount of inflation goes down, right? They're going to change the amount of inflation. And the net impact of that is going to be huge deflation. Now, here's a concern. I support Mission 70, but I'm not convinced that a 5x cost increase right now is the right move, especially since the network still has plenty of spare capacity.
If anything, I'd be inclined to lower cost by around 50% until usage reaches at least 6% of capacity. Dominic Williams said, "Projects that store media and files will see the cost of fall because of ICP blob storage." They haven't rolled out the reduction for storing data on chain. People are worried that this increase in the cost of compute is going to drive up the cost of of development.
Dominic Williams is saying, "No, we're rolling out ICP blob storage, which is going to lower the cost." Note that caffeine is already driving far more cycles consumption with cloud engines, and further growth mainstream usage will dominate. So, that's what we need to optimize for. But most Web3 apps don't do much compute, and the increase in cycles used will make little difference.
If they're storing images, costs will in fact fall dramatically. So that's what you need to know. They're rolling out sustainable upgrades. And really what matters at the end of the day is how upgradeable this world computer is, right? It's revolutionary technology that costs a lot of money to create.
No other blockchain on the planet can compete with it. So why I'm bullish on it is because of how easily upgradeable it is and how it can evolve. So whether or not this goes smoothly or not doesn't really matter. You have to look into the future. The future is this thing can be whatever we need it to be.
And projects like Bitcoin cannot boast that, especially when you have millions of Bitcoin sitting in wallets that are vulnerable to the first-ever quantum hack that catches people by surprise. ICP won't be caught by surprise. We can upgrade whatever we want. But here's one example. They're actively working on lowering inflation and increasing deflation, making the token scarcer and scarcer.
That to me is truly massive. I'm not investing in ICP right now for the for the current engagement because right now crypto is like investing in the Nevada desert before Vegas was built. There's nothing there. There's zero signal in any of the noise going on right now. What you have to look at is the future.
How upgradeable are these projects? How big and resilient is the community? I love how massive the ICP community is and I love the technology. ICP today 10x plus more builders than all Web3, self-writing on-chain apps, sovereign cloud adoption, cloud engines, $1 trillion cloud market, Web3 powers Bitcoin DeFi.
Maybe chain-key Bitcoin is going to be the safest form of Bitcoin. So many narratives. I've covered in other videos how ICP wins across almost every Web3 narrative. So as we crater as the bear market takes place and I've talked about the threats and on the flash crashes and the cliff of doom. Talked about all this with these altcoins.
So, we're not surprised that this could happen in altcoins, but from the wreckage will arise the highest quality assets with thriving communities and massive building. Here's just one example, ClearDeck, probably fair poker on ICP. Built a full decentralized poker app, full hand history, time banks, multi-table support.
Literally, that all happened on ICP. And so, it begins. ICP is the best place to buy code on chain apps. Check out the awesome probably fair online poker app made by a technical but non-coding Dfinity exec using Claude code. So, we did not sell. We have a zealous-like community similar to early Bitcoin when Bitcoin crashed to $3,000.
Very few people sold it that it that impressed the greatest investors on the planet. Well, that's very impressive about ICP cuz it has one of the biggest most thriving communities on the planet regardless of price action. And that's because it wins across all these different narratives. It's super upgradeable.
Tom Lee is saying that's incredibly bullish for for blockchains that can adapt in a post-quantum world. He's saying Bitcoin can't, so be very careful when you invest in Bitcoin, but ICP can. And yes, there's massively revolutionary technology. So, the sky's the absolute limit because this world computer and this community can become anything we want to be, and that is just absolutely massive.
So, we're all going to make it. Just wanted to bring you an update of Tom Lee's crazy warning about Bitcoin and what it means for revolutionary blockchain assets like ICP.
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