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AMC 숏 스퀴즈 관련 공매도 개념(일반 공매도, 네이키드 쇼트, 옵션·스왑을 통한 합성 숏)을 설명. SEC 자료상 네이키드 쇼트는 즉시 불법은 아니라고 주장. 최근 공매도 잔고(% of float)는 약 20~18%에서 14%대로 감소, 대여 가능 주식 활용률은 99%에서 약 90%로 하락해 숏 포지션 압박이 완화되는 추세라고 진단. 풋/콜 비율은 상승했으나 과거 3월·1월 수준의 급증은 아님. 발언자는 AMC 주식을 75,000주 이상 보유하며 최소 1년 보유 의사를 밝힘.
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this video is brought to you by blockfy get up to 250 totally for free when you invest cryptocurrency at blockfi go to metkevin.com bf to get up to 250 totally for free when you deposit money with blockfy they pay you interest on your cryptocurrency and they're a great app and you can actually transfer your cryptocurrency as well metkevin.com bf hey everyone me kevin here a lot of folks are very interested in understanding the short squeeze for amc and out of our research for the short squeeze for amc comes a lot of terminology including naked shorting synthetic shorting puts vs calls folks it can be overwhelming so in this video i want to give you a monday june 7th update on exactly what the latest short information is and what the trends are for amc we're not only going to look at the short interest data but we're actually going to look at some put cull ratios and explain some other topics as well but first i want to give an explanation of what the different methods are for shorting a stock so first things first we know that you can short a stock by borrowing it and then selling it and in the future repaying it this is very simple we don't need to go super deep in this you could just picture this very simply if amc is let's say a hundred dollars today and you have a bunch of amc shares i go to you and i go hey you mind if i borrow your amc shares like i'll pay you 10 interest or 50 interest just depends on what the market prevailing rate is to keep things simple let's just say 10 interest i'll pay you 10 let me borrow that those shares that you have for a while so i'll borrow a thousand shares from you and then i'll take those hundred dollar shares and if i want to short them i just instantly sell them that obviously puts downward pressure on the market because there's more selling activity a hodler is getting paid interest and is getting promised that that person is getting their shares back but in the meantime rather than that person hodling somebody's borrowing them and dumping them onto the market obviously that pushes prices down that's the nature of short selling and the argument for a short seller is hey if i can take dollar stock and short it short it all the way down to say thirty dollars and then i'll just buy it back at thirty dollars now i'll give those same shares back to the person i borrowed them from they're worth less but i'm giving them the shares back that same thousand shares back i borrowed perfect i profit seventy dollars times the thousand shares so 70 grand that's just basically short selling minus the fact that now i have to pay interest right okay we know that that's very very basic but it gets a little more interesting see that's basic short selling now let's talk about naked short selling which is another type of short selling which is oftentimes considered to be illegal but there are a ton of loopholes which basically mean it's not really illegal take a look at this so this is a report from a stanford and here it indicates the sec being the commission in 2009 the commission adopted a rule which requires that fails to deliver in all equity securities be promptly closed out failed to delivers among other things may be indicative of potentially abusive naked short selling so basically how this works is you call up your broker just to make this simple and go yo fidelity hit up my account right now for a million shorts on amc right now please thank you very much okay just charge my account the interest thank you bye and the broker has a responsibility to make sure they can actually get a million shares to sell so they have to borrow those shares from somewhere they have to identify those shares and they have to sell them but sometimes that takes two or three days and if after two or three days that person was essentially shorting the stock but in settlement time the stock never existed technically that person still gets a gain for shorting the stock and the brokerage failed to deliver those shares which is a big problem this is like an interest-free way of manipulating and gaming the system and so that's why we have this here naked shorting which is not illegal per se occurs when a short seller does not borrow the securities in time to make a delivery the brokerage does not borrow the securities sellers may intentionally fail to deliver as part of a scheme to manipulate the prices and so that's when it becomes illegal is when brokerages are not doing this by mistake but they're on purpose like yeah yeah let's just let's do that let's short and let's fail to deliver them and this is a way to essentially avoid those high borrowing costs which borrowing costs are pretty high on for example amc right now data indicates that since the fall of 2008 fails to deliver have declined blah blah blah okay great but a lot of folks believe that naked short selling is illegal but the sec actually has a document specifically on this in a naked short sale the seller does not borrow or arrange to borrow the securities in time to make delivery to buyer within the standard three-day settlement the brokerage as a result the seller fails to deliver securities to the buyer when delivery is known as failure to deliver or fail failures to deliver may result from either a short or long sale there may be legitimate reasons for a failure to deliver for example human errors or mechanical errors sure a fail to deliver may also be the result of a naked short sell for example market makers who sell short thinly traded illiquid stocks in response to customer demand may encounter difficulty in obtaining securities when the time for delivery arrives so this is really a loophole for the brokerage to just the brokerages to say hey look our customer called us and said they wanted to short a bunch of amc stock we want to take care of this customer so we enabled their short sale but then we realized the stock was really illiquid uh there there weren't shares available to be borrowed the share utilization was near 100 like it has been for amc until today now it's at about 90 utilization so there more shares available for shorting and boom you have a naked now people say this elite is illegal but folks literally if you go to the sec.gov it literally says right here naked short selling is not necessarily a violation of the federal uh security laws or commission rules indeed in certain circumstances naked or short selling contributes to market liquidity they're basically saying like this it's almost like the sec i don't want to draw judgment so can you draw your own judgments here but you can see when you actually look into it a little bit deep in more detail like for example look this is this is why i make videos and this is why hopefully you give me a subscribe uh if you just type in naked shorting into google and you go to investopedia it says naked shorting is the illegal practice of short selling well apparently it's not given that the sec literally says it's not uh and they talk about how they're actually cases where naked short selling is good for example broker dealers that make a market in a security generally stand ready to buy and sell security on hand for a regular basis blah blah blah blah this may occur sudden okay this may occur for example if there is a sudden surge in buying interest like in amc or if few investors are selling the security at the time a lot of haulers because it may take time for the market maker or may take a considerable amount of time for the market maker to purchase or arrange to borrow security a market maker engaged in bona fide market making particularly in a fast-moving market may need to sell the security short without having arranged to borrow the shares this is especially true for market makers in thinly traded illiquid stocks as there may be few shares available to purchase or borrow at a time bing go so you can take this out it's literally key points on regulation regulation s-h-o and it is under the what is a short cell uh definition tab of the sec's website so uh you know okay yeah naked short selling happens now the cool thing is uh well it's not really so cool because the sec is like super slow on it but the sec does give you data on how many failed to deliver there are this is a chart of the failed to deliverance for amc unfortunately it takes about a month for us to get this data and so over here on march on may 10th for example so it goes to may on may 10th for example we could see that 3.6 million shares failed to deliver for amc but if we go to weeble on may 10th so let's go to amc we're going to go to the day chart and we're going to go out to may 10th which is right here we're gonna see that there was volume of 38 million shares so that's actually a sizable portion that means literally on may 10th almost 10 of the shares that traded that day failed to deliver that's that's some serious naked short selling right there right that's an issue unfortunately we don't get that data in more recent times or or close to when we have these sort of market movements because the scc has a 30-day you know sort of time frame to give us that failure to deliver data or fail to deliver data which is pretty freaking annoying but anyway that's naked short selling so you have regular short selling and then naked short selling then you have synthetic shorting this is basically done with options so remember if you want to make money in a stock you could buy the stock or by buying shares or you could buy a call option a call option is not actually buying shares of the company a call option is just you having a contract giving you the right to buy shares at some point in the future and the value of that contract which is derived off of the value of the share price hence derivative that value fluctuates oftentimes much more than the value of the shares fluctuate you get much more fluctuation in options this makes sense so you buy that derivative or a call when you want to make money as the stock goes up but if you want to make money as the stock goes down you buy a put that's when you start making money as the share price goes down okay great so what is a synthetic short well a synthetic long is buying calls a synthetic short is buying puts and if you want to do a solid synthetic put strategy or a synthetic short strategy what you can actually do is you can sell at the money calls and you can buy at the money puts so let's say amc is at 60 right now this strategy says that you agree to deliver shares of amc to somebody at sixty dollars with your sold call if the share price is more than sixty dollars so you take potential unlimited risk that way and you make money if the share price goes below sixty dollars this is considered a synthetic short because you're making money when the price of the stock or the share price goes down and you have unlimited risk because you've sold at the money calls which you can do naked which means you don't actually own the shares so if amc goes to 400 and your call comes to expiration and you have to provide those shares you have to potentially provide an unlimited amount of shares to fulfill that call option at 60 for someone else right this is a synthetic short that does not show up in short interest data because it has nothing to do with the shares we know that short interest data is just a way of determining hey how much as a percentage of the shares that are trading on the market right now as a percentage of float how much of those or what percentage of those are actually short and that's pretty easy i mean you could use or text for that you could use the bloomberg terminal for that uh there there are plenty of tools to determine what the short interest is of something for example here's the s3 partners it says that right now we're at 14.91 short as a percentage of float so that's the short interest but these synthetic shorts the options i just talked about those don't actually show up in the short interest calculation then there is yet another way that you could short and this has to do with total return swaps then we're going to get to a bottom line here so total return swaps this is when you essentially deal with something known as a synthetic prime brokerage it's synthetic prime brokerage trading and so here's the way this works let's say you want a short amc you think amc is going to go down instead of borrowing the shares and then dumping them you get a total return swap where you're paid an interest rate for agreeing to compensate the brokerage if amc goes up so let's say amc is at 60 and you think it's going to go down well you could go to a brokerage and say hey i'll pay you whatever amc goes up so if amc goes to 100 i'll pay you that 40 but i don't think it's going to go to 100 i think it's going to go down so i'm going to i want you to pay me an interest rate i want you to pay me 10 or whatever and i'll compensate you if you go if it goes up if it goes down hey i don't have to compensate you anything and i get paid the interest rate that's another way to bet against amc and guess what happens in this example if you set this up the brokerage is like great we're paying this interest rate but what if amc goes down we need a hedge to make sure we don't lose money in the event amc goes down so guess what the brokerage does it shorts the stock so if it shorts the stock and the stock goes down it doesn't lose all of its money paying all this interest now this could potentially contribute to naked shorting so this is how you get this cluster of of this combination of all these different ways that you can combine shorting a stock so you have regular shorting which is you borrow the shares and you dump it you have naked shorting which technically isn't illegal but it just happens uh in sort of illiquidity events but that naked shorting can dampen the ability for a stock to actually run when it should it just tends to happen shorter term like brokerages try to clear those out asap otherwise they're going to get in trouble by the sec so regular shorting naked shorting synthetic shorting is options uh and then you have swaps now we can measure we've seen the things we can measure so far are we can measure how many shares are available to borrow this helps us and we've seen that more shares have become available to borrow so there's actually more liquidity at amc as of june 7th right now we've gone from 99 utilization to like 89 to 90 utilization so more shares are available to borrow in addition to that the short interest on amc is actually going down last week we were at 20 to 18 percent now we're at 14 so you've got share availability is up which means probably less naked shorting because shares are available to be borrowed so they don't you don't have as many issues locating shares to borrow you have short interest that's down and you can look at synthetics by looking at the put call ratio and what we're seeing over here is you do have an elevated level of buying puts so this is the put call ratio is basically just you divide the amount of puts there are by the amount of calls there are outstanding at any given time this is a chart from today and it tells us that right now we're at an elevated you know we're more puts than we are at calls which the break-even points obviously 0.5 it's the put to call ratio so we have more puts than calls right now but we're not really seeing this skyrocket kind of like we did in early march or in january this is when we really had a lot of put pressure or a lot of put pressure over here sort of in mid-march these are these are times where people are really setting up those longer term put positions right now we're not really seeing that spike and this is this is today's date uh in in the put call ratio here so all right bottom line what are we seeing well now we understand uh a lot more about the different kinds of shorts that exist if you like this content obviously make sure to subscribe but so far we are seeing a little bit of a trend down in the amount of shorting that's happening we're not seeing the massive spikes that we saw in january in march for put volume we're not seeing that same massive spiking in short interest data as we are uh or what we saw in in even january or earlier because for example here i can show you this we could go back year to date on the short interest chart and i'm getting a little there we go you can see we're you know we're not at all time lows we have gone down to about 10.88 percent here but we're definitely lower than where we have been so does that mean the squeeze is getting squeezed is today the day we start seeing that transition where the squeeze is getting close or is this just the beginning i don't know and quite frankly it doesn't matter to me because i'm hodling over 75 000 of amc shares and i don't really care if it goes down i might buy more in fact i will buy more if it gets down to a certain level if it goes up great but i'm hodling for at least a year as i promised this just gives you some more insight into some of the trends that i see happening in the market right now and one you
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