저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
요약 보기
인도는 장기 구조적 성장 잠재력이 크고 현재 비싸지만 선별적 투자 기회가 많다고 주장. 소비 시장(약 13억 인구, 30세 미만 다수), 전자제품 제조 확대, 반도체 진출 가능성을 근거로 제시. 2025년 인도 성장은 기대에 못 미쳤으나 2026년 시장은 호조 전망. 포트폴리오 내 인도 비중 20%이며 30%까지 늘릴 수 있다고 언급. 루피화 약세와 미국과의 무역 협상 불확실성은 존재하나 과장된 우려라고 평가. 2026년 유망 분야로 소비재/리테일 섹터 제시.
다듬은 글
India has been a laggard. Yet many investors are still optimistic about the longer term prospects of this market. How long do you wait and what's really holding it back? Well, I was just in India last month and by long term and structurally I'm just a real India bull. I've been in India bull for probably 20 or 25 years.
But India has always been expensive. And, you know, kind of a bad joke is that India gets in its own way. So I think India last year was just kind of deflated. It didn't have the growth that was expected. It didn't have the capital investment that was expected. But, oh, we're not looking for a real strong year in India.
India hasn't gotten off to a very, very good start so far. But particularly if there's any fiscal stimulus, we think India will do better. India is starting to have some more capital expenditure. If that happens, India will do better and India is just structurally with the support of the government.
Structurally, I think, going to be able to have an awful lot of growth. I think the exciting thing for me, having been in emerging markets for for quite a while, let's say 30 years or so, and watching the difference in growth between India and and China is that China has done such a phenomenal job on its economic growth and India has a lot of catching up to do.
And it just it has the possibility for greater growth over the next five or ten years that that say I don't I don't think that China does because China's already done that. So so, Stephen, if you believe in India's long term story, its long term potential, can you justify the premium that India commands today?
Would you be a buyer at current levels or would you be waiting? We would be a selective buyer of some industries within some industries and companies with India. One of the most exciting things to me about India is that for a very long period of time, it's still a market where stock pickers can outperform.
And that's just, you know, it's just not so true in terms of the efficient markets like the United States. And so that's, I think, where there's an opportunity. I wouldn't be I wouldn't be really underweight India in an emerging markets portfolio because it is going to outperform over the longer term.
And we tend to be we tend to have a longer term outlook. And it's times like this. I mean, when I look back 20, 20, 25 years, there's maybe, I don't know, four different times where people aren't very positive on India. And if you got in to India and any of those times, you did really well the next few years.
And this may be that many times. I mean, I don't know how many people you've talked to, but I don't think strategists are really enthusiastic about India right now. And to me, that that means it's probably a little bit of an opportunity. So if you take a look at your portfolio, how should India factor in?
And we know that when it comes to Mobius, he's talking about 20%. He's looking at getting to 30. How much should India be factoring into that portfolio? 30% of the portfolio were probably not not as high as that in terms of percentage of the portfolio. You have to realize Franklin is so big and we have a lot of different emerging market managers have different views.
So the Claridge fund that you just mentioned is looking at emerging markets in India really from a I perspective. But but for me and the view that I take kind of looking at a very broad set of investment opportunities. I think there's a lot of opportunities even in fixed income in India. I think there's opportunities in private best investments in India.
Private debt in India has a lot of opportunities. There's a huge spread there. But the real opportunity in India, as I mentioned, is I think it's an inefficient market. So I think there's still opportunities there for investors who are willing to do the work and really make picks. And then if you do that in an emerging markets portfolio, I would at least, you know, at least equal weighted, if not overweighted.
I, I am overweight India personally. Are there reforms, policy changes and steps that the government and authorities can take to make the Indian market more attractive? We know that foreign funds have been making exit, but that's mainly to do with the weakness in the Indian currency. Well, foreign funds, perhaps.
Yeah. And that's a current that's a currency issue. But I think the Indians could make it still a more friendly investment environment for foreigners. There's still work to do on that. I think that probably rightly, the Indian government has been hesitant to do a lot of fiscal stimulus, but I think it probably needs to do a bit more fiscal stimulus at this point and it just needs to be more friendly towards capital investment.
I think that there's a lot of there's a lot of interest, of course, in AI right now. There's also interest in just general other investment opportunities. And I'm guessing over the course of the next year or two, there's going to be a real surge for opportunities outside of AI. And I think that's an area where India, because it has such huge infrastructure needs and such huge growth potential, I think that India can be a a diversifier investment opportunity for those who are global investors.
And we know Mark is an India bull, has been an India bull for a very long time. Though Mark India disappointed last year. Will it be different in 2026? I think it will be different. As you see, the market is now doing very well and I think it will continue to do well. But I take a longer view about India.
India has lots of problems. The bureaucracy is slowing down the economy in many, many ways. But still, despite that, the growth has been tremendous, six 7% growth. Now, Modi, I think, is taking measures to curb the bureaucracy and to try to open up the economy more and more. Now, as that takes place, are you going to see more momentum, more push to increase spending and investment, particularly in the tech sector?
So I think that's going to be the very exciting story going forward for India. It is exciting, but it will take time. Some say 3 to 5 years. Yet you are forecasting returns of, what, 12 to 15%? What would take us there? First of all, consumer spending, as you know, one point to 1.3 billion people, most of them below the age of 30.
Young population, increasing urbanization. This all feeds into an incredible consumer market. That's number one. Number two, the employment in the electronics industry will be increasing very rapidly. I believe going forward, India will become a major producer of semiconductors. Now, that sounds farfetched at this stage, but there's no question that they have the capability to become a major semiconductor producer, and they must do that because they must catch up with China and the U.S., given the incredible population they have and given the fact that they're becoming a major exporter of electronic products.
So how do you position to reap the benefits in the future in the semiconductor, in the tech space in India? What would you be buying now to capitalize on the low valuations? Well, first of all, as you know, many of these semiconductor startups have not been listed yet, so it's difficult to get exposure in that direction.
But you can get exposure in the software area. Let's remember, a lot of the chips software is already being produced and done in India. So we're looking at companies that are in that space. That's one area. The other areas are companies that are just simply now assembling in manufacturing, consumer electronics, and they're going to be going upstream into more sophisticated components.
So that's another area that we want to look at. It's hard not to compare India and China despite the fantastic run China has done. You say that India remains the top market even for the foreseeable future. Why is that, Mark? What's what's driving that optimism? Well, first of all, the size the size of the country is incredible, number one.
Number two, the use of the population. Number two. Number three, the fact that you have a incredible absorption capacity of technology from all over the world because you have an English speaking elite group of people, very well educated that can absorb this technology. As you know, if you go around the world, you see Indians training in every direction and doing a lot of tech work.
So all of these these components are coming together and having an incredible impact on what's happening in India. And you must remember, the point with India is that it's open in the sense that you have a very open economy. You have states with different states competing with each other. And this is very, very good and very, very prosperous.
When you think about the growth going forward. As you wait for India to perform, how do you navigate the headwinds? Currently, we're seeing a rupee that's among the worst performers in the Asia-Pac region. We also have uncertainties to do with a trade pact with the US. Modi and Trump are not getting on too well.
I mean, how do you navigate all those uncertainties? ALL Yeah, they Trump Modi situation looks bad, but actually it's not as bad as you think. As you know what, it says many things that he doesn't mean it's purely bargaining that's taking place. And I tell you frankly, you don't want to go up against India when it comes to bargaining, as the Indians are terrific bargainers.
They know how to bargain. So I think this is a cat and mouse game that will go on for a while. But generally speaking, trade with India and China. Will India and the US will do very well. And by the way, trade with India and China will also do well. So I think India is open and very, very good in terms of international trade.
The interesting thing about India going forward is that they're going to be doing a lot more consumer electronics growth. When you look at what's happening in how a lot of this manufacturing is being transferred from China to India, that's going to be a very exciting thing. And of course, a lot of that product will be going to the US.
Ma'am, given your love for the Indian market, I'm just wondering, what's the weightage of India in your portfolio? Is it still at 20%? And are you still targeting 30? Yes, we're at 20% now, and depending on what we can find, we'd probably go up to 30. How do you balance, I guess, the the concentration of your portfolio in India while still wanting to diversify to to protect that portfolio?
Yeah, but you must remember, within this 20%, we're very diversified across many industries, different industries in India. So in that sense, we're getting diversification. And it's true that you've got to be careful when you're having a portfolio. You want to be diversified, but at the same time, you want to have that growth, you want to have that performance.
And the way to do it is going into areas that are growing fast and that are expected to grow fast. In our only conversation, he didn't talk about the Adani Group. You talk about how investing in Adani is investing in India. Is that still the case and how are you looking at this company and the prospects going forward?
Well, when you invest in Adani, you're not only investing in India, but you're investing in the infrastructure globally because you know, they're very much of a global firm and they're doing things all over the world. But I do want to emphasize Adani too much because you've got Reliance, you've got a lot of other great companies in India.
We will be putting all eggs in the Adani basket. You've got to look at so many of the other companies and particularly the software areas, very exciting for India so that they will do well. They're very exciting company, but at the same time there are many other players that will be doing as well if not even doing better.
What is the one Indian assets you must hold in 2026 for the best returns? I would say to begin with, A you have to look at I wouldn't I don't want to mention individual company, but I would say you'd have to look at the consumer sector to begin with of retailing or consumer goods. That sector would be probably the most exciting at this stage.
But going forward, you've got to start putting some of those things into the consumer and into the consumer technology sector.
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