Mohamed El-Erian on Fed Policy, Mexico Trade Tariffs

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결론: 연준의 신뢰성과 무역 불확실성이 커지고 있으나 당장 경제 위기는 아니라는 진단. 연준 정책: 금리를 중립까지 올리다 이제 인하를 논하는 상황이 연준 신뢰성에 딜레마를 만든다. 연준이 데이터에 지나치게 의존해 시장 기대에 끌려다닌다고 우려. 연준 딜레마: 시장이 과도하게 반영한 인하 기대를 확인해주지 않으면 4분기 시장 붕괴 위험, 확인해주면 훗날 경제·금융 불안정 위험이 있어 양쪽 모두 불리하다는 진단. 정책 대안: 연준에만 기대지 말고 다른 정책 수단을 살펴봐야 하며, 유럽중앙은행(ECB) 상황은 연준보다 훨씬 나쁘다고 언급. 트럼프 행보: 시장이 나빠지면 트럼프가 한 발 물러서는 '트럼프 풋' 개념이 있으나, 반복되는 게임에는 한계가 있다고 봄. 미중 무역: 미중 갈등은 국가안보 문제가 얽혀 있어 완전히 해결되기 어렵고, 최선은 휴전 정도라고 전망하며 지속될 것이라 봄. 미국-멕시코 관세: 동맹국이라 관세 갈등은 이례적이며, 캐나다·멕시코와 합의된 사안이라 이 부분이 변수. 멕시코는 과거에도 신속히 양보한 전례가 있어 곧 해결될 가능성이 있다고 봄. 경제 영향: 무역 긴장이 기업 신뢰와 설비투자에 잔존 영향을 주지만 재앙 수준은 아니며, 미국이 2.5~3% 성장률을 유지할 수 있을지에 대한 우려를 키우는 요인이라고 설명. 출연자 전망: 미중 갈등은 지속, 멕시코 관세는 해결 가능성 높음, 연준은 정책 딜레마 직면.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. how do you think about one of the things we've been wrestling with is this dynamic of what is the neutral rate like you described it's not a disaster today economically you know where we're going is is questionable as you said but if you think about with the debate a few months ago was we need to keep raising rates to get to neutral and now all of a sudden gosh now we need to cut it it creates a very very tricky thing for the fed around credibility etc and what is neutral and how far you have to move from that how do you think about that i worry rick i worry a lot i think a credible fed that's underpinned by a strategic view is critical i think that over over the years the fed has become way too data dependent and the data swings all over the place so i worry i think increasingly the fed may be in a lose-lose situation um if they don't validate what's priced in by markets which i think is excessive if they don't validate that they risk a q4 market dislocation but if they validate that they they risk causing economic and financial instability down the road so i do worry and the answer is stop focusing on the fed look at other policy instruments and by the way we are we talk all about the fed this problem is magnified a thousand times in europe i mean the ecb situation is much worse than what the fed is great mohammed how are you mike collins you know you mentioned mexico it's kind of a new salvo in in tariff uh war um and so that brings up the political thing we've wrestled in our shop with uh with trump right we've called it the trump put you know things get really bad he will cave to some extent or he will change his negotiating tact what is i'm asking you to put your political hat on what's your view on how his behavior may adapt to weak markets weak economic data so certainly his behavior has been consistent with what you just said um but you know there's a cumulative effect that there's a limit to how often you can play a repeated game i i lived quite happily with the notion that u.s china trade tensions when going to go away that at best you're going to get a ceasefire and that's because when it be when it comes to u.s and china it's much more than economics it's about national security as well and i couldn't see that put in put in a box and cleanly wrapped up and put away so i've always been of the view that the china-us tensions will persist u.s mexico is very different it's an ally um goods go back and forth across the border several times it is a done deal in terms of what was agreed to with canada and mexico so so that one for me is the outlayer and and i would suggest in your shop you spend a lot of time focusing on what does that mean as opposed to what does the other stuff mean anastasia mohammad it's anastasia to pick up on the point about mexico uncertainty some people expect that it will actually get settled in fairly short order my question to you is how damaging has this policy been of back and forth tariffs on longer-term economic fundamentals have we already inflicted enough damage to where we should not be expecting a quick snapback on business confidence and capex even if all these trade issues get settled for now so so critical point and thank you for raising it you know my expectation too is that it will be settled um it's not with a great sense of conviction because this is a political calculus rather than an economic calculus but mexico has shown the ability to make timely concession remember mexico came first came even before canada in diffusing the prior round of trade tensions having said that i think you have a residual impact on uncertainty is it disastrous no but it's yet another factor that contributes to growing concerns as to whether the u.s can maintain a two and a half to three percent growth rate