저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
개인투자자는 장기 관점과 기업의 턴어라운드 추적을 강조하며, 주식은 24시간 관찰 업무이고 외부 리스크(무역, 원자재, 중국 등)를 경계해야 한다고 주장. 자동차 부품 소형주(Atul Auto 등)의 과거 대박 사례를 언급하고, 향후 중소형 은행과 캐펙스 사이클 관련 섹터가 상대적으로 안전해 보인다고 말함. 미국 주식 집중에 대해선 인도 투자 기회가 크다는 입장.
다듬은 글
You do one thing. Look, this formula tells you to choose a path. You are not so smart here that you will think that if you buy any share then it will be completed in 25%. 25% will be gone. And in the second share you will find out the formula, I will keep it for 3 years. Generally this is difficult to happen.
You should try a formula and find out what suits you. What did you think about your shares when you bought them? When you sit in a vehicle, you must know that the vehicle will leave at this time, it will go to this destination at this time, it will reach here, you don't get down midway, you have something or the other for that vehicle, you have bought those shares after understanding something, so whatever you have bought after understanding, you should follow that, it is simple, whatever comes to your mind while buying, you should follow that, but it does not mean that it is a Ram Vakya, you cannot change from it, you can change from it, but sir, I want to tell you that investment in the share market is a 24*7 business for individual investors, it is not a side business that you are sitting in a shop or a factory, doing some other work and someone tells you to buy shares, so I took knowledge from the driver's uncle, neither did I study nor did I go to college, I listened to people, I chose penny stocks, I lost so much money, it was fun, okay, so the fun is like he told, madam told, your broker enjoys it, so it is for you to decide what you are thinking before buying and what you have bought.
Had taken those shares. You should be strict on that and this regret will remain with you all the time that sometimes if you go out for 25 taka then it becomes 200 and sometimes if you go out for 200 and do not go out for 25 then it comes down again. So you should always keep observing yourself. When it comes to the stock market, you should evaluate yourself daily to see where you are making mistakes.
Where am I doing right? Check your entire past track record. Write it down. Do n't keep it in your mind, write it down. What was I thinking when I bought this lion and what did I do with it ? When did it come out, why did it come out? Write the reason for it and what happened after that? So you will have to learn this on your own, sir.
You cannot learn by following someone. Sir, good evening. I will wait just for a minute. Madam needs to go. I request Ashutosh sir to give him a token of love. We will take two or four more questions with your permission. Yes we will take the question. Hello, wait a minute for a question. I request Madam Sir, moment please give a big round of applause to Asadije Madam and Nagpur Police, thank you very much Madam, thank you very much Madam, Sot Khalti Sahib, question Sir, hello, question Hello, good evening Sir, my question is that even today why are we dependent on America, on nose and dow, and your view on infrastructure, how will the infrastructure perform in the coming days?
First of all, let me tell you that now that madam has left, I have no fear of getting beaten. One thing to keep in mind is that police thieves are smarter. This is a fact. The thief is smarter than the police. The thief tells the police how to be smart. The thief finds new ways. The police do not know those routes.
The thief himself tells them that yes, he will first catch one or two thieves. What did you do? You will be given less punishment. They will beat you less. You tell me how did you do it? He shows them the way. Then the police plug the way ahead. Anyway, I was gathering courage to speak to that madam.
She [laughs] was shaking that stick. I said I will tell you like this after he leaves. Anyway sorry friend yes ask back right now yes sir sir [laughs] sir I am hello no their question was left for the first ones. Hello Sir, I have a question Sir. No, who did it first? Yes. Tell me this handsome boy sir, even today he is dependent on US USS US, hey listen brother, listen today, sit down, what did you say, right now we look at US, I mean who all come on Instagram, hey who is here, if not me then who comes, who is like that right now, there is no one here, there is no one except Sardar ji, only one person is sitting here, Sardar ji, is it okay?
So who do we consider? Whom do you call us? Let people do it. People are even earning money by supplying. Will you earn? So we are nothing. Those people talk. What will happen? More than $.5 million dollars, you let a man go, $.5 million dollars is a lot. But what do you want to do, someone was asking me this just now.
Why do you want to go to the US? If you buy five or ten shares of Google, what will you do with it? Tell your girlfriend that you have shares in Google. That [ __ ] will eat up more money. She will start going to big hotels. So what do you charge US? US shares fell by 80-80%. You know this, right? What Tesla that was $600 and $650 became $1.
You know, right? Something like this happened. So why are you talking about the US, friend? There is a huge opportunity in India. So let them talk about the US. The things to say are different. Practically, if you are not able to understand something properly in your house, if you are not able to see it properly, if you are not able to water that plant properly, then why do you want to go to the US, what is going to happen by showing off fashion, it is useless, what I mean to say is Antil Anas, the size of your portfolio is so big, you are handling two, four ₹5000, ₹100 crores or it is your own ₹500 crores, you have invested it in the US, even if it sinks, then it does not matter, or your balance has become zero, you have become hedged against the currency.
There are many ways to do that. Our people are small investors. We do n't need to go here and there. There are a lot of opportunities in India. Okay, hello sir, sir, let's apply the smile formula. Ok? Oh but on whom do you apply this smile sir. Sir, how do you identify those stops? Because its number is very high.
Right now I am doing it on you only. No sir we want to follow you. He is not in your level, sir. All this is a small part, now the level below 1% is kept like this, sir, this should be our technique too, so how does a little click happen to you sir, for example, like talbroz, talb automotive, so sir, how did this come to your mind in the beginning because there are many companies in this sector, suppose one sector comes to your mind like automotive, sugar, any one X and Z, then which company do you have to find in this particular sector, on which you have to apply your file formula.
I understand your point sir, as I told you a while ago that investing is a 24*7 business. And even before this I had said that I am not working on any shop floor. Neither am I a vendor, nor am I a supplier , nor am I a lender, nor am I a labourer, nor am I a worker. So what am I? So what does that mean for me?
My job is to keep watching all the 400-500 companies all day long, keep studying them, keep thinking about them and whenever there is a weather change, if any sector is likely to rise, then I catch the shares of that sector, this does not happen in a day, I have many such shares sir, I just watched those shares for five years, I did not work in them, I will give you an example, you know it.
Like V Global was near me. I kept watching those shares for 3 years or 4 years or 5 years because those shares rose a lot once. His working improved but later the company's position deteriorated. The second time it was very good and then his position deteriorated. So all I understood was that a company which once goes from zero to 100.
It goes from 0 to 500. 500 comes back to 200. 200 comes back to 700. If it comes back from 700 to 2300 but it is repeatedly going from 200 to 700 or from zero to 500, then there is some potential in that company, otherwise it is not a joke that a company worth 100 crores reaches 700 crores, 1000 crores and then falls down again.
So I used to watch that company for four years, I used to listen to all the calls that company got, I used to listen to the interviews that came and used to find out about its product from wherever I could get an opportunity. Suddenly, in 2014-15 or 16, I understood that the commentary of the management of the company started becoming good.
He started giving indications that the company was turning around and when it failed twice, he changed his business model twice. The first time he adopted a business model, it was not successful. So because of this the company went into decline. He changed the second business model back. That business model was right for him but somehow some recession came in 20089, something like that happened, whatever it was, that business model was right but the company could not become fruitful, so I watched that company, then in 2014-15 or 16, I mean, now the comments started coming that this business motor is becoming sustainable and my losses have also started reducing, within two, three, four quarters we will start making profits, so I started buying those shares, so what I mean to say is that you will have to keep following a company, sir, you will have to know its history of last 5 years, 10 years, 15 years and you should keep preparing for it that if there will be a turnaround, then this is your job, isn't it?
What is your job as an investor, I am a full time investor, my job is to keep watching about all these companies, when is whose fortune changing, when is this happening, so this is the same tally which you I took the name and in that too I saw that yes brother, that was the cheapest share being sold.
Everyone was thinking that it makes gaskets and if everything related to YC engine gets finished then that gasket will not be used in EV. By doing this and that, all the shares of auto accessories were available within the PE of 6, 7, 8, 10, 9, 10. You will still find shares of many companies like this.
People thought that EV has arrived here. Just now I will tell you about a company which works for IC engines. The company has order bookings till 2030. Forget about EVs till 2030 and Tata Motors and Maruti also say that there will not be 100 EVs in India before 2030-35. Both are going to run parallel.
We are going to walk together. So brother, you will have to take care of all these things. All these things, news, information, all these things will have to be kept behind him. Then it will happen Sir, not like this Sir, Sir, hello Sir, one minute, one minute I will just Sir, here Ashutosh, no problem, I am watching, tell me Sir, on the side of the podium, so Sir, this is, I don't drive Sir, Auto Ancillary, you were talking about this stock, when you said that you want to invest, then a lot of people told you not to go into it, tell me that story, not Atul Auto, Sir, it is like this, in all the companies that I have invested in till date, believe me, what happens now, first you buy the shares, you understand, you buy the shares with your intelligence, when those shares do not move, then you start feeling that you have become a fool, so what do you do, now you start looking for another fool bigger than you, so that you find another bigger fool than me and I make him wear a cap or I tell him that brother, you also invest in these shares, then there will be some movement in the shares.
Come on, this is just a joke. So, as you might be talking about Atul Auto, I had bought Atul Auto in 2004 and all the other shares that I bought because I buy small cap shares, at that time neither does it have any strength in its balance sheet nor are those shares popular and half the people about those shares have not even heard of its name, so when they talk to anyone, they either say that yes brother, I have not even heard of this name, but when they read the balance sheet and when they hear it, it seems that the future is bright, but people naturally feel scared to buy it, so I bought one share, Atul Auto, after buying it, I used to go to everyone and tell them that look, this is Atul Auto, this company is doing so well, quarterly numbers are coming, there is so much expansion plan, this is that, but no one understood anything, so people did not buy it, ultimately those shares increased 100 times and from the same there is Aegius Logistics, I bought that too in 20056 and those shares Those shares have increased 200-300 times, yes, if you calculate it till 2017, then between 2004 to 17, I mean, but if you have confidence in your thing that I am doing this work, but you cannot do this work immediately, for that you will have to spend your life here, otherwise it is difficult, otherwise your own confidence will also be lost.
If everyone is telling you that brother, I will not do this work. So then you have to do it on your own that yes brother, it is okay, I understand that I have to do this work, but you should do this after gaining some experience, it is not necessary to take such risks, one has to be safe, see friend, the speed of the stock market is like the speed of Lambini or the speed of 500-600 kilometers, the speed of this business is such a fast speed, so what I say is that you will not have to become too adventurous on any adventurous port.
For example, imagine you are sitting in a roller coaster. You know its speed, its hiccups, its bumps, its roller coaster, so there is not much adventure going on there. Meaning, he should not sit there by opening his seat belt etc. So the stock market is such a place where the speed here is so fast and this business is so risky.
Not to take unnecessary risks. Because there is already inherent risk in every share. One that I used to say at that time, then perhaps it slipped my mind. Are there two types of risks? One is internal and one is external. What is internal risk? If you are educated. You know you have understood the balance sheet of the company.
You understand a little bit about economy. You understand the country a little and you are understanding all the products of that company. So you understood the internal risk as its fundamental and invested it in your company. But there is another risk and that is external risk. That is an external risk.
Like what could happen to Masoon? What could happen to War? What could happen to Forex ? There was some problem with that supply of that company in some other country. Due to this its demand may be hampered. As you might have heard, right now everything in commodities, steel and aluminium is in disarray due to China.
It goes up and down that when China is closed then the prices of commodities fall. Now that China has started opening up, commodity prices have started rising. These are all external risks. It keeps coming out new all the time. Every two months, three months, four months, in a year you will get two, four, five such external risks.
How will you understand that? How will you deal with that? Unless you have the knowledge to understand it, how can you be successful by working directly ? Hi. Sir, this is one last question from that side. One minute at a time, one minute at a time. Who has the mic? They have one and the other. We will sum up after these two questions.
Yes, you ask. Sir, which sector are you bullish on for the next three-four years ? Sir, this world has become very dynamic now. Ok? And here first of all, as I said, I invest for 10-10 years, 15 years. But now the coming times are such that this scenario is starting to change a bit. Whatever things are there now, they change every three or three years.
You can see for yourself about IT, after Covid came in 2020, you will see that by 2021, IT shares had increased four times, five times, seven times. Including what we were just talking about inside the US and what happened inside 22? Everything became half. Some lost 40 taka, some lost 30 taka. Some are at the same level but Akshay shares have gone down by 30 taka, 40 taka, 50 taka and there is a possibility that these people will remain under pressure for perhaps another year because there is a problem going on inside the US.
So this world has become very dynamic sir, these things keep changing. It is a little difficult to say this. Personally, I feel like this and I may be wrong, I do n't know. I think the shares of the bank. These small banks or mid-sized banks seem to be doing well. Because as you say, whatever good banks there are, for example, Federal Bank, this is not a recommendation.
There is a credit growth of 15, 17, 18 rupees in these. And while right now everyone is thinking that the Capek cycle is starting, it is starting. I have been hearing this for four years. But later on load shedding happens and it stops. We still think that the capex cycle will start now or is starting in many places.
So whatever will happen or is going to happen, it will create more demand. So this little sector seems a little safe. But there are many shares in it, you will have to choose them.
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