저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Schiff은 인플레이션이 2%로 돌아가지 않으며 1970년대 이후 최대 원자재 강세장이 올 수 있고 Fed가 재정 문제로 금리를 인하할 것이라고 주장. 진행자는 Olive Garden 가격 인상 등 인플레 재상승 신호를 언급하며 Fed가 2% 목표를 포기하지 않을 것으로 보고 AI 랠리는 지속 가능하다고 봄. 시장은 연내 금리 인하 횟수 기대를 줄였으나 진행자는 AI 강세를 유지하는 입장.
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oh boy Peter Schiff has some Choice things to say about inflation which we're going to cover in just a moment many of you can already imagine what Peter shiff has to say about inflation but there are some concerning things leading into what Peter shiff has to say that makes me pay a little bit more attention take a look at this this is the 5year break even for inflation it is the markets expectation of inflation over the next five years I broke this down over at ec.com and what you can see is this the last one year of inflation expectations we have now broken the highs that we briefly hit in October and in March of last year and we are now at a higher level of expected inflation with a clear Trend straight up in markets than we have had for any point in the last 12 months hitting a low right around the time JP pivoted and turned a bit doish leading Marcus to think hm is the Federal Reserve really going to do enough to constrain inflation especially since when we look here we could see that if we annualize the last 3 months or 6 months including the estimates for February for pce of pce inflation we can see very clearly while we've come down nicely we're back on an uptrend of inflation now is it possible that this January February uptrend will just be like a January February uptrend here and we'll be right back on a downtrend absolutely and maybe that's what Fed chair jpow is waiting for and expecting but what do Peter Schiff warn in the meantime well that is right here Peter shiff a guest I've had on my channel multiple times visited his house a couple of times great guy don't always agree with all of his opinions but I love paying attention to them anyway to get perspective and insight and that's one of the most important things about the internet is we don't have to agree with everything somebody is saying we just want to look for what is new and what are we potentially missing Peter Schiff here suggests that there's essentially no chance that inflation is going back down to 2% and we're on the verge of the biggest Commodities bull market since the 1970s this is probably very likely a proponent of gold now I will say though that Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson who's been pretty dang bearish on the stock market has actually just turned bullish on energy Commodities pretty bullish on companies like conico Phillips and ocidental petroleum suggesting that yeah Commodities could actually rally Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley interested in the energy sector Commodities not to be confused with Renewables or like EVS or solar but instead gas oil and then of course shift more in gold silver right here though Peter shift cites the H than expected producer price report last week contradicting power but more importantly the FED is quote cutting rates come hell or high water it doesn't matter what the data is the Fed is going to cut rates because the country is broke they're not cutting rates because they've won the war against inflation they lost the war they're cutting rates because they have to avoid a financial crisis a banking crisis and they want to try to reelect Joe Biden now Donald Trump has has already made it very clear that he would fire Jerome how if Donald Trump is elected and the Federal Reserve indicates that they won't be politicized but you have to wonder how much politics might still have at least somewhat of an influence on the Federal Reserve right here uh you've got Peter Schiff arguing that back in the day Ben banki said we would never monetize our debt basically print money just to be able to pay our interest payments because that would be like a Banana Republic yet that is exactly what's happening now so we must be a Banana Republic and Peter Schiff wraps up by saying we haven't experienced anything like that this economy facing this sort of inflation since the 1970s the difference is that we're in much worse shape economically now than where we were in the 70s now I find this very interesting because it stands quite in contrast to what you see from uh companies like TS Lombard who are suggesting the following so where do we end up from here for me the likeliest path is a is still the softish landing with the occasional bump I'm not sure the authorities can get inflation down to 2% but they're not going to trigger a recession for the sake of an extra 100 basis points even a small policy adjustment can prevent problems in corporate debt and Commercial Real Estate now this is very interesting to reconcile because if you pull together TS Lombard and Peter Schiff you're actually somewhat arguing the same thing you're arguing hey maybe we don't get inflation down to 2% but maybe that's okay after all it should be no surprise to Jerome Powell that inflation expectations have risen if anything Drew and Powell is acutely aware that inflation expectations have risen and yet actively chose to ignore this so is it possible that TS Lombard is right when they say hey we're going to stick on the path of some nominal rate adjustments because even a nominal rate adjustment will help soothe the pain in commercial debt commercial real estate and in banking I'm not entirely sure if that really is going to make a difference but TS Lombard thinks so and of course Peter Schiff thinks well it's all up Ponzi and they're going to do whatever they can any way to keep it going as long as they can even if they end up giving up on the inflation battle so this is where I got to wondering hm where could we potentially look to see some introductory inflation in markets and see hey is there maybe a leading indicator of what's going on well this morning in our course member live stream which I like to try to do this every single day the market is open we go through some form of fundamental analysis one of the things we looked at this morning was Olive Garden now Olive Garden has always had this principle of we will end up pricing below inflation and they're doing that to really advertise to their customers that look we're not raising prices we're we're just barely keeping up with inflation if anything we're undershooting inflation yet the reality seems to be a little different see Olive Garden stated the following commodity inflation came in at about 1.5% which was below their expectation and their pricing went up by 3 and 1/2% and labor inflation was about 4 1/2% so to me it seems like you're either right in the midpoint or you're slightly on the high side of how much pricing you've actually taken at Olive Garden that's LED Olive Garden to brag about their margins and how well they're doing because of course they're using AI in their scheduling of course they are now I personally think they're full of crap last year they said yeah we're going to price below inflation and then oh well surpris we actually priced higher than inflation now they're saying the same thing again yeah yeah yeah yeah we're going to price below inflation yet in the meantime we're going to kind of keep ratcheting and ratcheting and ratcheting and the scary thing about this is take a look at this overall inflation expectations for Olive Garden Olive Garden expects overall inflation to be in the mid3 for us and pricing probably in two and a half or the two to two and a half range I actually think it'll end up being higher but the fact that they expect inflation to be in the mid- Theses and labor inflation included in that to contribute to Mid 3s on inflation shows we're not exactly trending close to 2% just yet now maybe maybe maybe maybe it's all as JP said maybe it's just that hey look we got to get through the first few months and then we're going to be right where we were right where we were was the trajectory of cutting cutting cutting now what I like to do is I like to compare well where were we just a few months ago well just a few months ago and I think this is a very interesting chart to compare to I'm going to show you the world interest rate probability chart now I think this is fascinating because it's going to show you a change over time so let's throw this up on screen so what you have on the left side is a chart that shows you markets were pricing in about 6.6 cuts by the end of 2024 see that here December 20124 this would be roughly the beginning of 2025 and then over here you have the number of rate Cuts so about 6.6 rate cuts that would bring rates down to about 3.75% percent over here number of cuts over here I'll zoom into into that for a moment just so you can kind of see it maybe a little bit more clearly right here okay that's where we were now I want you to see how many rate Cuts we're pricing in now so this is January 2nd is what this screenshot is from uh at least I I backdated the uh data and went back into the data which you could do you can look at the charts back uh and then compare that to where we sit today this data is based on today today we're only pricing in 3.6 rate cuts by the end of January so if we go over here to this left chart we've removed about half of the cuts well what happens if we continue to get data like this do we remove the next half of the cuts yeah probably now does that necessarily mean the stock market's going to have any issues no I mean look at Bitcoin basically it's at all-time highs nasdaq's about to go positive and once again you've got Nvidia in rally mode knocking on the door of its all-time Highs at 957 pretty dang exciting now one thing that did rally a little euphorically was lucid this morning but we made sure to short that this morning as we started our course member live stream we shorted it right around here sold it not all the way at the bottom but right around 3ish dollars right around where it is right now and so we didn't get the exact bottom but we did pick up a nice 40 to 50% gain on that short so that was a nice few thousand just for a quick little swing on a morning euphoria pop boom short out thank you 30 minutes of work or less it's great but what matters most here is could Peter shift be right and could TS Lombard be right that the Federal Reserve kind of throws in the towel on 2% inflation I don't think so and this is an important bottom line so good job if you made it this far in the video I do not think the Federal Reserve is going to be willing to increase their inflation Target to 2 and2 or 3% drum Powell was already asked about flexible average inflation targeting that was his best opportunity to say yeah as long as we average out 10% or two and a half sorry as long as we average out 2% we'll be good but that's not what he said he said basically we're not using a we're committed to 2% now of course the risk is that if you're committed to 2% for too long you end up creating a labor market issue you lead to layoffs now even though we have started seeing layoffs people do seem to be able to get jobs again so jobs data hasn't started weakening but there is the risk that once jobs data starts weakening it's too late but I don't think you have a Federal Reserve that's willing to throw in the towel on 2 and a half% yet that means that when you have people like ghouls be suggesting that we're in a murky period of inflation even though he thinks we still have three rate cuts to go whereas bosk says he only expects One Rate cut this year we have to recognize that 5year break even inflation levels this on a chart going all the way back to 2022 5year inflation Break Even levels sit at 2006 and S levels when the Federal Reserve was worried about inflation and was raising rates going into the Great Recession yeah they were raising rates going into the Great Recession that's scary that we St we're stabilizing out with inflation at roughly the same level as we did before 2007 and 8 so am I here to say the AI Euphoria is over no not not at all that could probably keep going for quite a while does it make me want to chase every single AI play there is no do I want to trade heck yeah and I'm going to send Bell alerts for that but am I a little dare I say confused at the moment that you could have a Federal Reserve literally staring at the data and say data looks fine to me and I'm going y'all said you data dependent which one is it I
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