저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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고용지표는 실질적으로 양호하며 금리 상승은 인플레이션보다 성장 기대 때문이라고 봄. 10월 이후 Fed 동결 가능성, 중간선거 전 금리 인하 부담 낮음. 10년물 금리는 연말까지 5%대 유지 전망. 유가 90달러 이하 유지 시 3분기 실적 호조에 힘입어 4분기 랠리 지속 기대. 로보틱스(피지컬 AI)가 성장 기회이며 엔비디아 장기 보유 중이고 데이터센터 이후 로봇 수요가 추가 성장 동력. 아날로그디바이스도 센서 계층에서 주목. 이후 메모리(마이크론·SK하이닉스 등) 하락에 대해 CXMT 경쟁 우려는 단기 공포일 뿐이며 공급 부족 지속 및 2028년까지 물량 예약 상태라고 설명.
다듬은 글
So, does Friday's employment report give you reason for optimism or pessimism? Hey, good morning, Andrew. I think it was, uh, just a great report, um, for Kevin Warsh. Well, the report is "just what I need." And let me explain why. He was weak in basic, uh, statistical metrics. You know, the unemployment rate went up a few basis points, which rounded it up to one tenth.
And wage figures were weak, but there was a lot of strength beneath the surface. I mean the increase in the labor force participation rate , which, as you know, has been falling for a long time. Well, we've actually seen an increase in the workweek , which has also, uh, been decreasing. So, the main numbers give Vorsh a reason to wait in October.
You know, it's 6 days before the midterm elections. I do n't think he wants to raise the stakes. He wants to be, quote, "neutral." So, uh, and that, I guess, gave him the green light for it. As for, uh, the period between now and Christmas, and if you look at where we actually are. We have a big Anthropic IPO expected in mid- November.
Do you see this as, uh, a high- growth market? Do you see this as a stable market? What does this look like for you? Well, I'm very impressed that despite the significant increase in interest rates, the market has held up. And I think the rate hikes are not caused by inflation and not really by the deficit.
I think it's because of higher expectations for economic growth. And, uh, you know, that's why stocks, uh, are holding up. So, you know, if we can, uh, keep oil at 90 or below, and I, you know, warned that Iran wants to escalate things before the election and could carry out some attacks there. But if we can keep oil, you know, below 90 , you know, I, I think this rally could continue into the fourth quarter because the third quarter earnings year-over-year are certainly going to be extremely good .
However, when you look at interest rates, what is your prediction for where they will be, say, by Christmas? Well, I, you know, I know Tom Lee said before that maybe they'll drop to 4 and 3/4. Of course, it can happen. But, I, you know, looking at the world, it's really fascinating that every major developed market has seen a dramatic increase in interest rates.
And all of this was in real interest rates. You know, my long-term inflation expectations haven't increased at all. So, you know, real rates are driven by many forces, but one of them is economic growth around the world. So, you know, it seems to me that we can stay in the over 5% range until the end of the year.
And why do you think this slows down processes? Because there's a conversation I hear all the time, especially among people in the private equity space. I am pleased to be here . Robotics is a huge opportunity right now. You know, I still think people imagine manipulators in car factories and stuff.
A kind of primitive work. But as Elon Musk and Tesla's Optimus shows us, the possibilities are vast, but now it will all be powered by physical AI. And that means, you know, a simple concept like putting a powerful computer inside a robot. And very quickly, you know, think about something as simple as picking up a cup of coffee.
We do it without even thinking. You just take this cup and start drinking. But this requires thousands of physical calculations to take place. You have to measure distance, pressure. You must make sure that the cup is standing level. You shouldn't apply too much pressure. All of these things have to happen in real time, and it will all be powered by AI.
So I think that's the real opportunity, and it's not just investing in physical robots. This is investing in related industries that support the entire ecosystem. Okay, and speaking of this ecosystem, as far as opportunities between computing sensors, power management, or the robot manufacturers themselves, where do you see the biggest growth potential right now?
Certainly. So there are three levels that we like to think about in robotics. You have a brain that provides all thinking. You have sensors, as I just described with the coffee example. And then you have testing systems to ensure everything is running at peak efficiency, right? If you make a mistake in the chatbot, you will simply receive an incorrect request.
If you make a mistake during robotic surgery, the consequences are serious. So, we started with the brain. The big 800-pound gorilla is obvious. This is Nvidia. They are creating GPU technology to develop special computers that fit inside robots. So their big new innovation last year was Jetson Thor.
These are computers based on Blackwell chips, specifically designed to be installed in physical bodies. And it processes two quadrillion operations per second. So, to put it in terms that the human brain can understand, if you were to count one second to two quadrillion, that would be 65 million years ago, when dinosaurs roamed the Earth.
So we're talking about a huge number of transactions every minute, every second. And they released Isaac, which is a platform for simulating robotics development. And they also have Groot. By the way, I like these names. It looks like that little wooden guy from Guardians of the Galaxy. Groot is a fundamental AI model technology designed specifically for robotics to solve their tasks in data centers.
So don't think that Nvidia, with its huge growth in profits and sales, has reached its limit, because it's not exactly the case—I don't want to pick on Apple, but Apple keeps remaking the same products. Nvidia is simply pushing the boundaries of AI capabilities. I mean, great point and really great context to just appreciate the scale.
First of all, how huge some of these workloads are. And also, I appreciate the reference to Guardians of the Galaxy, but Nvidia is one of your top favorites, as it serves as the "brain" for physical AI, and also, as you said, is actively involved in innovation. But how much of the company's future growth will depend on robotics compared to the capabilities of data centers that we are already familiar with?
Yes, of course, data center capabilities are still their main driver, but as robotics adoption becomes widespread, that may not take that long , maybe a year or two. The demand for their products and this revenue stream will be a significant expansion for them , even if the data center market may cool down in two years ; but no one can predict this growth with certainty , however we all agree that this is a huge opportunity for Nvidia in any case.
So you get the benefit of " two in one". For full transparency: I've owned Nvidia stock since 2017, when they were just cool gaming chips, and look how they've evolved since then. First it was gaming chips, then crypto chips, then GPUs, and now it's AI data centers, and in the future, robotics. So they obviously demonstrated excellent results at every stage.
Okay, then Analog Devices is also one of your top choices. So why do you think the market might be underestimating the importance of this level of the robotics ecosystem when it comes to Analog, and of course, how do you compare that to your view of Nvidia? Yes, Analog Devices is kind of our second tier, our sensor tier.
Um, and if you remember when Elon Musk introduced Optimus at his investor day, and he was on stage, doing all his cool stunts, there are a lot of sensors involved, and that's what Analog is doing. So, they make optical sensors, they make control systems and Before we get started, on AI and the stock market.
Memory maker stocks are falling, investor confidence is weakening, and the market is starting to question one of the biggest assumptions behind the AI boom. But there is a strange twist. Demand for memory chips still far exceeds available supply. So why are Micron, SK Hynix, Sandisk, and other memory companies facing such a massive sell-off?
And is this the beginning of a deeper problem, or is the market overreacting to short-term fear? Let's figure it out. The DRAM ETF, which tracks companies in the memory industry, is headed for its third consecutive negative week. This would be its longest streak of weekly losses since the fund launched earlier this year.
Its major assets include Micron, SK Hynix, Sandisk, and Western Digital. They were all caught in a recent sale . But, according to Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Investments, something important is happening in this industry . Memory companies may be moving away from the business model that investors have known for decades.
To understand why this is important, we need to look at how memory stocks have worked in the past. Historically, memory manufacturing has been a very cyclical business. As demand grew, companies expanded production. As supply increased, prices often fell. Profits were weakening and the share price was under pressure.
Then the cycle would repeat itself. This up-and-down pattern has led investors to question the appropriateness of the high valuations of memory companies. Even when profits were high, investors often assumed they would eventually fall. But the AI boom is changing the situatio to process and use information.
This makes memory a critical part of the infrastructure of advanced AI computers. And demand is not limited to just one type of memory. High- bandwidth memory is essential for many advanced AI systems. Whereas regular DRAM is also needed for servers and data centers. As AI infrastructure expands, memory becomes a major bottleneck.
According to industry comments in this discussion, the available supply for 2026 and 2027 is already largely booked, with buyers looking further into the future, to 2028. This is an important detail. If demand remains high and supply is limited, memory manufacturers can gain greater pricing power and a better view of future revenues.
But there is a problem. The stock market operates not only on the basis of business fundamentals. It also responds to interest rates, credit conditions, competition, and investor expectations. And now several of these forces are acting against the actions of memory manufacturers. One concern is the possibility that China could become a stronger competitor.
The company at the center of the discussion is CXMT, a Chinese memory chip manufacturer. Recent reports have suggested that CXMT is researching a new technology that will eventually allow it to compete in another part of the memory market . This news has raised concerns about future supplies and pricing.
But there is an important difference. CXMT has mostly focused on low-margin memory products. The technology mentioned in the latest report will require further development, manufacturing capacity, and time before it can have a significant impact on the market. Mesa argued that the potential threat could be more of a short-term market fear than an immediate change in industry fundamentals.
In his opinion, a more favorable market environment might have perceived this news as a less significant event . Instead, investors are already concerned about AI trading. This means that even an unverified report about future competition can provoke a much larger reaction.
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