저자: John · 외국인
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QQQ ETF는 나스닥100을 추종하는 패시브 ETF로 과거 3/5/10년 수익률(10%/22.4%/17%)이 S&P500을 앞섰다. 다만 밸류에이션(PE 약 29배)이 높고 닷컴버블 사례처럼 고점 매수 시 장기 손실 위험이 있어 '신중한 매수'를 제시. 애널리스트 평균 목표가 약 11.3% 상승 여지. 장기적으로 $100,000 투자 시 30년 후 약 $1,257만 가치 시뮬레이션(배당 포함).
다듬은 글
what's the best investment for the long term it's a question with many answers depending on what you're looking for low risk good income or strong returns adjusted for how much the investment might jump around that's where the Invesco QQQ ETF comes in in today's video we're talking about putting yours and John's money into QQQ we'll see what this ETF is about how it is historically performed and if it's a good option to invest in and in the end we'll show you whether QQQ which follows big tech companies like apple Microsoft and Amazon can turn an investment of $100,000 into a multi-million doll portfolio or not before reaching a conclusion about whether you should invest $100,000 in QQQ let's set the stage for the ETF starting with understanding the QQQ ETF but wait what's an ETF let's break it down an ETF or or exchang traded fund is a type of investment that's kind of like a mix between a stock and a mutual fund it's traded on stock exchanges just like individual company stocks but it holds a collection of assets like a mutual fund does think of it as a diversified portfolio packaged into one convenient investment one key thing to note about QQQ is that it's passively managed this means it doesn't have a team of Fancy Pants Financial experts picking and choosing which stocks to include instead it simply aims to replicate the performance of its underlying Index this passive approach helps keep fees low which is good news for investors but this by no means means they don't have a strategy the ETF follows a simple strategy it mimics the NASDAQ 100 Index this means that when you invest in QQQ you're basically investing in the top 100 big companies listed on the NASDAQ Stock Exchange started in 1999 QQQ has grown to become one of the biggest ETFs around managing a massive $259 billion in assets the QQQ ETF owns a bunch of different stocks with the top 10 making up nearly half of the entire fund these stocks are mostly big players in the tech and growth sectors that have been doing really well in the stock market lately apple is the biggest holding followed by Microsoft and other famous companies like Amazon Nvidia meta platforms alphabet and Tesla but it's not just those big names QQQ also includes other top performing stocks in areas like semiconductors healthc care and software plus it gives investors a slice of international growth with companies like Mercato lib and PDD Holdings from China overall QQQ covers a wide range of themes that are expected to do well in the long run run like AI biotech and e-commerce in Emerging Markets according to tip ranks smart score system which ranks stocks based on different factors most of qqq's top Holdings get high scores seven of them even got perfect scores including Amazon broadcom meta platforms and alphabet and as a whole the QQQ ETF itself also gets a good ETF smart score of seven now on to the e ETF as far as historic performance the QQQ ETF has a great history of doing well over the long term as of the end of last year it's been earning an average yearly return of 10% over the past 3 years but that's not all if we look back even further its performance gets even more impressive over the last 5 years it's been getting a fantastic yearly return of 22.4% and over the past decade it's been averaging in over 17 % yearly return the Invesco QQQ trust ETF NASDAQ QQQ has done really well over the long term beating the S&P 500 in three five and 10-year periods so it's a winner in the big picture but does it have what it takes to hit a $10 million valuation that's what we'll see in the end stick around to find out of course it's important to remember that just because QQQ has done well in the past doesn't mean it will continue to do so in the future but its strong track record definitely gives investors confidence in its potential going forward but it's also one of the riskiest indexes out there mainly because of its valuation here's the tricky part while we would love to say go for it with QQQ for the long term because of its selection of companies there are some concerns right now the market isn't exactly at its best in terms of value many big companies especially in the tech and communication sectors seem a bit overpriced compared to what we think they should be worth sometimes if you buy when it's at its highest you might end up waiting a long time before you make any profit a good example of this is the tech bubble in the late '90s and early 2000s if you had bought QQQ at the top during that time it would have taking you 15 years just to break even so even though QQQ usually does well in the long run buying it when it's super expensive can be a bad idea the nasdaq's 15-year bare Market is one of the longest downturns ever almost like the Dow's 15-year bar Market in 1929 and Japan's 34-year Nik bare Market this means you have to be careful about when you buy QQQ just like anything else if you pay too much for it you might end up losing money at today's prices the NASDAQ 100 index which Q QQQ is based on trades at 29.1549 multiples for these Magnificent Seven stocks as you can see qqq's top stocks are pretty expensive just like the whole index when you look at things like PE and price book ratios what this shows is that the fund is actually trading high but since then a bunch of big tech companies that QQQ holds have reported much better earnings growth than expected just looking at the numbers QQQ seems too pricey but big Tech companies often do better than expected like they did last year so instead of saying sell or a strong buy we suggest a more cautious buy for now as for the analyst's answer to this question when we look at what Wall Street analysts are saying QQQ has a rating of moderate buy this comes from 87 analysts saying buy 15 saying hold and one saying sell in the last 3 months on average and analysts think the QQQ stock price could go up by about 11.3% to reach around $493 29 now for measure at the time of this video it's currently trading at $444 53 So based on those numbers it's a good trading point to enter for the long term in the end I'll show whether entering with this trading Point has the potential to reach over a $10 million valuation in the long run or not stay tuned back to the ETF now that you know your entry point you also have to consider how much it'll cost you it's important to think about how much an ETF charges you before you decide to invest luckily the QQQ ETF has a pretty good deal with an expense ratio of only.
2% this means that if you invest $100,000 in QQQ you'd only pay $200 in fees each year that's not much especially when you look at how well QQQ has been doing over the long term there are some other ETFs out there that are cheaper than QQQ but there are also plenty that cost more some of them have expense ratios of 35% 5% or even higher to sum it all up the pros and cons of investing in QQQ boils down to this investing in the QQQ ETF has its perks during bullish market trends it tends to shine outpacing the S&P 500 and offering the potential for significant gains plus it's positioned for long-term growth withh Holdings and Innovative tech companies driving technological advancements with its ample liquidity and low expenses it's attractive for frequent Traders and costc conscious investors alike however there are downsides to consider QQQ faces High bare Market risk often underperforming when the market takes a downturn leading to substantial l loes for investors its Tech heavy Focus also brings volatility with tech stocks known for their price swings additionally being exclusively NASDAQ based means it misses out on opportunities from other successful Tech firms limiting diversification there's also sector risk as it relies heavily on the tech sector's performance lastly its high valuation levels and lack of small cap stocks May deter some investors who seek more balanced portfolio so what does this mean for the future importantly and before calculating the return on a $100,000 investment we need to know how this ETF will stack up in the future let's take a look at what could make the big companies in QQQ grow in the future first we have the rise of Chinese e-commerce apps like TAMU and shine these apps are spending a lot on ads and most of that money goes to companies like meta and Google So Meta and Google are likely to see their revenue and earnings grow as a result secondly we had a really successful Black Friday last November with sales up by 7.5% compared to the previous year this is good news for companies like apple and Amazon because they usually get a lot of orders during the holiday season and finally we have to consider that some of the top QQQ stocks are already really big when companies get really big they start to see smaller returns on their spending for example Apple makes about $90 billion in Revenue every quarter and even the smallest of the big companies Tesla makes about 23.3 billion per quarter so while the first two factors can help these companies grow the shear size of them means that the growth might not be as big as before overall we might expect these top QQQ stocks to grow their revenue by about 5 to 10% on average in the last quarter similar to what we saw in the previous quarter in summary even though QQQ had a great year last year it's still a solid choice for long-term investing it gives you access to 100 top-notch companies from around the world all in one easy investment QQQ covers a lot of exciting growth areas in the market and it gets high marks from tip ranks smart score system plus its track record of beating the market and its low fees make it a smart choice for a long-term portfolio it not only checks many of the boxes short-term investors look for in ETFs it also has significant advantages for long-term investors okay so now that we've cleared that up what kind of return should JN expect if he invests $100,000 in this ETF for this we have to look into three important long-term factors the current dividend yield dividend growth and average share price appreciation this ETF has a current dividend yield of 6% a dividend growth rate of 9.93% and an average share price appreciation of 17.24% now let's calculate Jon's potential earnings from his $100,000 initial investment based on these figures in the first year John's money is projected to reach $1 17,860 after 10 years John's money is projected to reach $ 59,230 years John's money will reach $2,542 265 give it 10 more years and in 30 years John's initial investment has the potential to grow to a valuation of 12,575 373 and he'll receive in dividends every year which is about $593 each month as we said this ETF is not about dividends but about Capital Growth in 30 years this ETF has the potential to add 12,475 373 to his initial investment which includes $1,394 375 from the growth of QQQ while $8,990 came from the dividends now listen if you're more interested in dividend income watch the video on the screen to see your investment return from $100,000 in jei which has the potential to pay over $45,000 in monthly dividends
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