저자: HamishHodder · 외국인
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버핏의 Liberty SiriusXM 매수는 사업 자체보다 Liberty(Sirius XM 지분 84% 보유 트래킹 주식)와 Sirius XM 간 합병 가능성에 따른 리스크 아비트라지 거래 때문이라고 주장. 두 주식 간 약 22% 가격 괴리가 있으며 합병 완료 시 Liberty 매수로 약 28% 수익 가능. 다만 합병 불발·괴리 방향 불확실성 등 위험 존재. 버핏은 Sirius XM 간접 약 26% 지분 보유. 영상 말미 유료 강의 홍보 포함.
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Warren Buffett just bought another $770 Million worth of serus XM bringing his total ownership of the company to almost $3 billion which makes it his 10th largest investment except where is it well it's actually listed all the way down here as his 31st biggest investment Sirius XM is Warren Buffett's secret stock because his true ownership is hidden between multiple share listings which not only Ides how he's been acquiring tens of millions of shares each month this year but that he also Now controls 26% of the business I spent the last week digging through the numbers to find out why he's buying it and to my surprise it actually has nothing to do with the business at all but has everything to do with a technical stock market trick that almost guarantees that he will make money on the trade let's start at the beginning while it does take a little bit more work to find the investment Buffett is is piling into this year all of the information is publicly available the Securities and Exchange Commission has a bunch of reporting rules for companies and one of them is called form four statement of changes in beneficial ownership it's a public filing that needs to be submitted to the SEC when there are material changes in the Holdings of company insiders basically if a director or an officer such as the chief executive officer is buying or selling shares in the company that they work at then they have to report it through a form four but it also includes one other group of people shareholders who own more than 10% of the company so if birkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett's company was to buy more than 10% of another company's shares they'd need to submit a form four within 2 days every time they trade the stock this is exactly what happened in 2017 this is the form three filing which they made and discloses that they own more than 10% of the company which is great for us because we get to view this trade in real time rather than having to wait for the 13f filing at the end of the quarter as per usual Buffett has been buying shares in Liberty Media on and off for years but this month he significantly accelerated his buying there are eight form four filings that Buffett submitted in March where he details trades of Liberty Media shares the most recent filing discloses trades made on the 26th 27th and 28th of March he bought 2.5 million shares of series a liberty serus XM at around $229 per share bringing the total amount held to 32.7 million shares in another form for filing it shows on the same day he bought series C Liberty serus XM shares about 7.6 million bringing the total to 65.5 million all of these transactions are code P if you go on Wikipedia you can see that this means an open market purchase so we can confirm that he wasn't gifted shares or wasn't using derivatives or something all in all Bufford has added almost 30 million shares of Liberty Media just in the last month increasing his investment by about 50% but hang on a minute I thought we were talking about Sirius XM not Liberty Media well to really understand what it is exactly that Warren Buffett has been buying through these form four filings we need to understand a a bit more about how Liberty Media Works Liberty Media Corporation was founded by John Malone in 1991 and it's not like a typical company it's basically three different companies Under One Roof or to be more precise three divisions Liberty serus XM Liberty Formula 1 and Liberty Live and each of the divisions has three classes of tracking shares a b and c a tracking share is a type of stock that tracks the econom IC performance of a particular segment of the company or in other words there's no shares that you can buy to invest in Liberty Media Corporation but you can buy shares in the specific divisions the a b and c shares just represent different voting rights a shareholders get one vote per share B shareholders get 10 votes and C shareholders get zero votes the B shares are really just for John Malone he owns 97% of those B shares which gives him 49% voting power over the divisions so taking another look at Buffett's form four we can see that he's been buying shares that track the Liberty serus XM division of Liberty Media hopefully you're still with me so what exactly is Liberty serus XM well it's not even really a business it actually just holds investment in one company Sirus XM in fact Liberty Sirius XM owns 84% of Sirius XM shares this came to be back in 20 8 two radio companies Sirius and XM decided to merge their businesses but only a few months later they were on the brink of bankruptcy John Malone founder of Liberty Media came to the rescue giving them a loan in exchange for a large Equity position so today Liberty Sirus XM owns 84% of Sirius XM which means if you buy 1% of Liberty Sirius XM you're essentially owning 84% of Sirius XM hopefully somebody out there is counting the amount of times that I've said Sirius XM in this video as of the latest purchase Buffett owns 3.08% of Liberty serus which equates to about 25% ownership interest in the Serius company and if that wasn't complicated enough for you already Buffett also just owns some serious XM shares directly about 40 million of which 30 million he bought in the last quarter about 1% of serious shares meaning Buffett's total ownership is about 26% the company Buffett has been building ownership in is a radi broadcasting business they run music talk shows news and sports through their channels and sell advertising and business services to generate Revenue they also own Pandora a music streaming service similar to Spotify with premium and AD supported subscription options and according to sirius through their radio and online services they have about 34 million subscribers and 150 million monthly listeners which is a lot but it's a much small smaller operation than say Spotify who has about 600 million monthly users on a fundamental level the business is actually doing pretty well they recorded almost $9 billion of Revenue in 2023 which was the same as the previous year but more than double since 2014 profit has been steadily increasing over time reaching 1.2 billion in the last year and all of those profits are being put to use in three main ways paying off some of their debt burden paying shareholders a dividend and doing share purchases also I'm using ticker to find all of this data so head to Hamish hotter.com tier if you want to try it for yourself but as I said in the introduction Warren Buffett buying Liberty serus XM shares has absolutely nothing to do with the actual business it started with this headline in September last year John Malone proposed a deal to merge his Liberty serus XM shares with the actual Serius XM On's which from a Simplicity standpoint makes complete sense both Liberty serus and Sirus XM shares buy you basically the same thing an ownership piece of serus XM so why not just combine them into one listing what's interesting about this idea is that it opens up the possibility for something called a risky Arbitrage risk Arbitrage is the investment strategy to profit from the narrowing of a gap of the trading price of the Target stock and the acquirer's valuation of that stock in an intended takeover deal in this case Liberty serus shares and Sirius XM shares both represent some sort of ownership in the same business but the Liberty Shares are significantly cheaper and the maths to figure this out is relatively simple Sirius XM shares have a market capitalization of $14 billion so when we add all the shares together the current price of the business is about $4 billion Liberty serus XM shares have a market cap of 9.3 billion so why are the Liberty shares so much less well in part it's because the Liberty shares don't equate one: one to the direct serious shares remember Liberty only owns about 84% of Sirius so the $9.4 billion market cap reflects the value of 84% of Sirus shares divide 9.4 billion by 84 and you get the current price of Sirius XM if bought through Liberty shares which is $ 11.1 billion in simple terms ownership of serus XM can be bought for about 22% cheaper if done through Liberty and that Gap in valuation will close if the merger is completed it will close because you'll have two different listings basically being merged into one if Serious XM shares currently reflect the value of the business after the merger buying Liberty shares today would result in a 28% return after the merger that's what's called a risky Arbitrage and if you're buying the Liberty serus shares you're hoping that the merger goes through and that the Sirus XM Shares are correctly pricing the company but it's not without risk it could be the case that Sirius XM simply declines after the merger rather than Liberty shares increasing we only know that the Gap will close if the merger is completed we don't know in which direction it will close this is actually why some Traders will both Buy Liberty shares and short sell serious XM shares so that they benefit regardless of how the Gap closes the other risk is that the deal doesn't close traders who have been buying Liberty specifically for this trade may sell causing a sharp decline Buffett owns $2.7 billion of Liberty Serious XM A and C shares as well as another 150 million of serus XM directly about 2.8 billion do in total which as I mentioned before makes his interest in the company about his 10th life largest investment so it's clearly a very important bet for birkshire Hathaway but at the same time it's also kind of small Berkshire haway has about $350 billion invested in US equities making the serious investment less than 1% of the portfolio and since he already owns about 30% of the Liberty serious shares there isn't much more that he can do here I mean even if he bought all of the shares of Liberty serus which is obviously impossible but even if he could do that it would still be a about a $10 billion investment which is about 3% of berkshire's total us Equity portfolio Buffett's main problem isn't that there aren't good Investments out there it's that he has too much money for any of them to make a difference it's actually one of the advantages that we have against the big money managers we can look at smaller companies like Buffett did in his early years and if you're interested in learning more about how you can invest in stocks by far the best courses available right now from new money education there's lessons for beginners who are looking to understand the basics of how the stock market works and the simplest methods for building long-term wealth as well as a course on stock analysis if you want to learn how to invest using Warren Buffett's principles I've personally been through the course and it hits all of the important points that I've personally used to make about 30% per year in the markets for about 7 years the quality of the presentations is insane it's by far the easiest way to learn the 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