저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 인프라 투자(빅테크 capex 5500~6000억 달러)와 수요(엔비디아 칩 수요 공급 대비 12:1 언급)가 지속되며 AI 강세장이 향후 2년간 이어질 것이라 주장. 2026년 빅테크 실적 시즌도 성장 기대 상회 전망. 과거 AI 고점 논쟁은 후행적이며 AI는 '3회차'에 있다고 보고, 수혜 기업으로 UiPath(PATH, 약 25배 선행 PER), Amazon(AMZN, 약 30배 선행 PER, AWS 영업이익률 약 35%), Redcat Holdings(RCAT, 드론 국방 수주 기반 성장)를 제시.
다듬은 글
I mean, I believe we have a bull market in the next two years. We've talked about 10:30 p.m. in that party that goes to 4 a.m. And I think what we're seeing now is that the next stage AI modernization's playing out. You know, we've seen it in Asia demand the supply for Nvidia chips 12 to1. And anyone that came out of CES hearing the godfather of AI, Jensen in Nvidia, it just shows we are still in the early days.
And that's what we're so exciting about, you know, in terms of everything that we're seeing on AI. I mean, we think we're going to have 550 600 billion of capbacks from big tech. And that's why we're going to have a tech earnings season that I think continues to wow. I think streets underestimating growth, 10 to 15% this year.
It speaks to our view. You get the popcorn out, the AI revolution's just starting. Dan Ies has been blunt about one thing. This is no longer a debate about whether AI has peaked or whether the bubble has burst. That argument is backward-looking. According to Dan Ies, the AI revolution is still in the third inning of a nine-ining game, and history tells us something critical at this stage of every major technology cycle.
The winners of the next innings are rarely the same as the winners of the early innings. Since 2023, skeptics have warned investors to stay away from AI. While they debated narratives, markets delivered historic wealth creation. AI infrastructure spending has surged toward 550 to$600 billion. Hyperscalers are fighting for compute capacity and demand for advanced chips, cloud workloads, and automation tools continues to exceed supply.
These are not late cycle signals. These are early monetization signals. But here's the pivot Dan Ies keeps emphasizing. This phase is about shifting to the right side of innovation. The easy money in obvious names has already been made. The next leg belongs to companies quietly embedding AI into enterprise workflows, cloud infrastructure, robotics, and national security systems.
If you listen to skeptics over the past 2 years, you already missed a massive part of this cycle. And if you keep listening now, you risk missing what could be the most powerful innings still ahead. In this video, Dan IV's next inning AI framework. Companies positioned not for yesterday's hype, but for tomorrow's realworld AI monetization.
Let's begin with UiPath, ticker symbol P A T. a company that perfectly illustrates Dan Ies's idea that AI winners evolve rather than disappear. UiPath isn't a flashy newcomer, and that's exactly why it's so misunderstood. While the market spent years pricing UiPath like a dying RPA business, the company was quietly rebuilding itself for the next phase of AIdriven enterprise automation.
UiPath remains the dominant force in robotic process automation, controlling roughly 57% of the global RPA market with over 10,800 customers, including nearly 2/3 of the Fortune 500. That installed base matters because AI adoption inside enterprises doesn't start from scratch. It layers on top of existing workflows.
And UiPath already sits at the execution layer of thousands of missionritical systems. The inflection point is UiPath's Maestro platform, which changes what automation means entirely. Maestro combines deterministic RPA, the precision execution layer enterprises trust, with probabilistic AI agents capable of reasoning, adapting, and handling complexity.
This hybrid approach solves a real enterprise problem. Pure AI hallucinates, and pure RPA breaks when conditions change. UiPath now orchestrates bots, AI agents, APIs, and humans into unified workflows that automate entire business processes, not just repetitive tasks. The financials are beginning to confirm the shift.
UiPath just delivered its first profitable Q3 in company history. Net retention remains expansionary at 107% and larger enterprise contracts are growing faster than smaller ones. Net new ARR has accelerated for three straight quarters and management has signaled a path toward fullear gap profitability.
Importantly, Maestro revenue is not yet included in guidance, creating potential upside as adoption scales. Strategic partnerships with OpenAI, Microsoft, Google, Snowflake, and Nvidia validate UiPath's position inside the enterprise AI stack, trading around 25 times forward earnings. UiPath is still valued like an old cycle automation company, not a next cycle AI orchestration platform.
This is exactly the kind of stock Dan Ies is talking about. Not an obvious AI headline, but a company shifting to the right side of innovation just as AI moves from hype into enterprisewide monetization. Next on the list is Amazon, ticker symbol AMZN. And this is where Dan Ives's next inning thesis becomes crystal clear.
Amazon didn't dominate AI headlines in 2025 and its stock underperformed big tech peers. But under the surface, Amazon is quietly building one of the most powerful operating leverage stories in the entire market. Amazon continues to compound revenue in the 10 to 15% range. But what makes the setup compelling now is how AI is magnifying profitability across the business.
AWS, the world's largest cloud platform, has reacelerated growth to roughly 20% with operating margins around 35% and an annualized operating income run rate exceeding $40 billion. Customer backlog and commitments continue to expand, signaling durable AI demand, not one quarter noise. Amazon is also emerging as a core AI infrastructure provider.
Its $ 38 billion partnership with OpenAI positions AWS as a backbone for frontier AI workloads. While its $8 billion investment in Anthropic gives Amazon both financial upside and deep integration of cloud models into AWS services. These are not speculative bets. They directly reinforce Amazon's cloud mode and future monetization.
Beyond AWS, AI is unlocking margin expansion where the market least expects it. Amazon's advertising business is growing north of 20% annually at very high margins with AI improving targeting and conversion for sellers. In e-commerce, robotics and AIdriven optimization are transforming fulfillment economics.
Amazon now operates more than 750,000 robots and analysts estimate billions of dollars in annual cost savings as automation scales. Even modest efficiency gains can drive outsized EPS growth due to Amazon's scale. Despite all this, Amazon trades around 30 times forward earnings, a valuation that still doesn't fully reflect its long-term earnings power once today's heavy AI and infrastructure investments normalize.
This is classic late cycle investor behavior, underestimating operating leverage during investment phases. Amazon may not look like a new AI winner, but in this third inning, scale plus AI equals asymmetric upside. Finally, we move to Redcat Holdings, ticker symbol RCAT. And this is where Dan Ives framework shifts from software into physical AI and autonomy.
Redcat is not a mega cap and it's not profitable yet, but it sits directly at the intersection of AI, robotics, and national security, a theme that is accelerating, not slowing. Modern warfare has fundamentally changed. Small autonomous drones are now missionritical assets and the US government has made that explicit through initiatives like the drone dominance program, a 1 billion dollar effort designed to rapidly build a domestic NDAA compliant drone manufacturing base.
Redcat already holds a strategic advantage. It has blue list approved drones, active US Army contracts, and American-based manufacturing. The company's revenue growth reflects that positioning. Quarterly revenue surged more than 600% year-over-year, driven by deliveries under the Army's short-range reconnaissance program.
Manufacturing capacity is expanding, and management expects revenues to scale meaningfully as production ramps. This is contractbacked demand tied directly to defense budgets, not speculative consumer adoption. What makes Redcat especially interesting in this cycle is structure. The drone dominance program is designed to narrow competitors from 12 down to just five long-term suppliers over the next 2 years.
Even partial participation could translate into tens or hundreds of millions of dollars in contract value. On top of that, Redcat is expanding into unmanned surface vehicles, opening a second revenue stream tied to maritime security and infrastructure protection. Yes, risks remain, margins are thin, operating expenses are high, and profitability is still ahead, not here.
But Redcat holds over $200 million in cash, giving it runway to scale manufacturing and execute without immediate balance sheet pressure. This is exactly the kind of asymmetric nextinning opportunity Dan Ies is referring to a new winner emerging as AI moves from software into autonomous realworld systems.
Dan Ies' message is simple but powerful. AI is not over. It's evolving. We are still early in the cycle, but leadership is changing. UPath shows how enterprise AI monetization is accelerating. Amazon demonstrates how operating leverage explodes once AI investments mature and Redcat represents the frontier of physical AI reshaping national security.
If you stop listening to skeptics years ago, you already benefited. If you ignore them now, you may still capture what comes next. Because in the third inning of the AI revolution, the biggest gains belong to investors willing to shift, not those anchored to the
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