저자: 미상 · 외국인
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머스크가 테슬라 의결권 25% 확보 없이는 AI 투자를 확대하지 않겠다는 식으로 압박하는 상황을 협상 전략으로 해석. 주식보상안이 주주소송으로 지연된 상태라 공개적으로 이사회를 압박하는 것으로 봄. 테슬라 AI 자산(옵티머스, 도조, FSD)은 유지될 것이며 대규모 자사주 매입은 어렵고 희석은 불가피하다고 봄. 단기적으로는 피보나치 지지선 대응이 중요하다고 언급. 주가 급락 시 매수 기회라는 입장.
다듬은 글
wow we need to talk about Elon Musk because yesterday long and short of it he basically implied that he's not so sure about developing artificial intelligence at Tesla unless he has 25% voting control of the company which let's be real right now he's got slightly more than 133% you could throw in some options maybe add another 6% but the point is that would still leave him shy somewhere between 6 to 12% of what he would need in terms of voting control to have control of Tesla to the point that he feels comfortable in expanding artificial intelligence research arguing that Tesla is uh ceration whatever of multiple different startups now I don't know if there's like some Mark Zuckerberg Envy going on since Elon Musk has also been kind of tweeting comparisons to Facebook and how Facebook has dual class voting shares whereas Tesla doesn't and it's really difficult to set that up after a company IPOs and there were a lot of I mean there have always kind of been comparisons between Mark and Zach you know Elon wanted to show up at his house and fight him and I guess that never happened supposed to be a fight in the Coliseum that got downgraded to a different uh monument and then just basically fizzled away and never happened I I I there there's a lot of this like you know uh male parts measuring contest that's going on and uh uh that there's that uh then there's obviously the drama around the Twitter acquisition and a lot of shareholders being very frustrated at Tesla that Elon seems highly distracted by Twitter though other people are like no it's for the good of humanity it's for the good of Free Speech but what we really need to do is ignore all of the speculation craziness and mid Journey 6 pictures uh leaked photos of uh Elon Musk sad about his Twitter acquisition I have to say mid Journey 6 not bad not bad i' I'd probably say it's got you know it's got some work to do on hands still looking a little bulky here but but uh I have to say you know mid Journey 6 not bad so if you haven't been using some of the AI tools you're missing out because some of these are are pretty impressive uh there's some really wild detail here uh that you can get out of these uh these image generators now it took like a whole like 45 seconds to generate this morning in the course member live as we were messing around a little bit not exactly sure what's going on over here if that's all bird poop and that's why he's sad or what but any who what are the implications of this well long and short nothing here's the thing every single time drama like this happens with a company like Tesla and the stock goes down which I realized it went positive again today okay we're going to talk about that in a moment because the fibs are working again uh hopefully knock on would okay there's a there's a risk they won't but it's really scary what's happening in the fibs right now as I'm recording this video it's like it's perfect but anyway uh what you have to know is this is probably a negot NE iation Ploy from Elon Musk I really think that Elon knows it's been a very long time since he's had a new Stockon plan there's talk that they can't have a current stock comp plan because of a shareholder lawsuit somebody who has a very insignificant amount of shares is part of a class action lawsuit uh in in Delaware uh and basically this this lawsuit has been going on for nearly two years now it still hasn't settled out and until it settles out they can't really do a new stock comp plan at least that's the current argument so I think Elon is posturing that maybe we're getting close to resolving that case and now he's purposely posturing to try to massage the board into giving him a better stock comp plan because Elon wants to argue that hey I need to have 25% control so that Humanity doesn't get destroyed when we come out with the amazing artificial intelligence tools that we have and some activist investor doesn't come in and take my 15% uh and then and then we're screwed basically because somebody does evil things with artificial intelligence that's the gist of what elon's trying to pull off here and there are two ways to look at it one way to look at it is elon's being greedy he should stop being distracted by the bird and actually focus on Tesla uh and then the other part of that is people are like bro I'm investing in Tesla because of all of those other startups so the fact that you might imply you might sandbag those other startups just because you're not getting more stock comp comes across a sleazy then there are the other side of people who are like no no no it's bullish every time things go this bearish where people start saying that's it Tesla's going down to 100 Tesla's going to drop 50% uh it's over for Tesla the Market's finally realizing Tesla's overvalued every time like that sort of sentiment comes out it's usually a really good buy the dip opportunity because no matter how you look at it Tesla's the only profitable EV company that exists in quite frankly North America it is not only an EV company but we we know this already it's also a technology company whether it's full self-driving or some of the other benefits that come with Tesla or the energy whatever we don't even have to go through the list of all the things that Tesla is what matters is that ultimately this sort of drama that Elon is stirring up is probably not without forethought elon's pretty good at saying things on Twitter and then regretting them but when it comes to Tesla stock there's often some forethought with what he's doing even 420 funding secured in my opinion even though you know the SEC is kind of like hey hey wait a minute wait a minute you shouldn't be doing that in my opinion that was a ploy to burn short sellers there's always this extra kind of thought that he's got going on is Elon really going to try to rug pull Tesla and and somehow say that's it I'm taking all of the AI team and creating another startup no he would get sued to Oblivion it's not g to happen it would get like there's no way I think they could pull that off I'm not even remotely concerned about that I think the odds of Elon being able to strip Tesla of the amazing things that it has done and the amazing things that it is growing in the startups that are part of the company now are about 1% so that means I think there's a 99% chance whether Elon gets more stock comp or or or not like Tesla's staying Tesla Optimus is staying at Tesla Dojo is staying at Tesla the energy seor staying at Tesla FSD staying at Tesla all the AI at Tesla is staying at Tesla okay that's really important now does that mean Tesla's going to get all of Twitter's AI through grock no of course not these these are very separate okay and that's okay it's not like anybody's really trying to price in the potential benefits of of grock over at Tesla or really shouldn't be anyway so from a practical and fundamental point of view am I really worried about this drama affecting Tesla stock long long term no besides usually elon's stock based compensation plans are ridiculous like both for the investors and for him like he gets paid a lot when they vastly outperform expectations so realistically could Elon get a stock-based comp plan that's like hey if you get Tesla's market cap to five Trill we'll get you back to 25% ownership uh yeah totally and then he's a trillionaire actually it' be more than a trillionaire right it slightly over a trillion dollars uh of net worth just from Tesla in that case and that is some kind of stock comp plan that I think is probably something where shareholders are going to go you know we get this drama and people like oh my God oh my God elon's going to try to dilute shareholders no the board's not going to go for that elon's not even going to go for that they're going to go for some kind of stock plan that would either include BuyBacks which I don't think so because they're spending so much money on on um Capital expenditures I do not think they're going to go for BuyBacks uh or they'll have some kind of ridiculous growth targets that if the valuation crosses X for say 90 days Elon unlocks a trunch of stock options that would get him closer to his goal of 25% voting control again I don't think you're going to see a second voting class of shares I don't think you see that either I think this is very simple okay I'm just trying to put like the reasonable hat on here like does the drama we heard on Twitter really make me fundamentally nervous about Tesla no it's literally just Elon being Elon this this is Elon like negotiates in the public space all these kind of negotiations with Tesla like Tesla price Cuts or what everything is so public immediately and it's one of the reasons Tesla's so volatile most companies they kind of they do these negotiations in private but Elon leverages social media to his benefit when it comes to burning short sellers or putting pressure on the board because obviously every Elon Fanboy and girl is going to be like Bor you need to take care of Elon and and you know other like just normal everyday investors are like what the hell why is all of this happening right in front of my eyes and then obviously Tesla Q is like Market's finally realizing the Stock's overvalued shorts will pay off here eventually it's just drama that's all this is like no absolutely nothing here fundamentally changes any any Tesla investor should know based on history that press tells us if Elon gets a big stock comp plan that brings him to 25% it is going to be handsomely rewarding to Tesla shareholders so you should be cheering it if it's anything like the previous stock on plans because it probably mean Tesla stock double triple quadruples before he gets to that level right and then maybe it actually realigns elon's incentives to get over the bird and start focusing on on uh uh on Tesla a little bit more uh but anyway this is what I wanted to show regarding the fibbies so while I've been filming this video I've been watching this line just get tested and tested and tested what's really scary about this is this morning on our uh stock market open live stream which we do every day the market is open on the stock market open live stream channel I warned I go this is not good Tesla is in no man's land we literally have no support and like shortly after I mentioned that what what ended up happening look at this literally the r stops right above the the uh you know after the Breakthrough of the uh resistance which now becomes support it has a little attempted breakout which obviously fails and rubber bands right back to the FIB and we are literally dancing that FIB line very very very important from a TA basis that we do not have a full Candlestick below uh this fiby line right here which I just want to show you exactly where it is 22126 we're basically right there right now okay we we really need to close above that today so you want Tesla to be up about 1.1% today okay knock on wood uh so look again big deal all this drama no it's Elon being Elon negotiating in the public space he will not be able to pull out all of the glory uh that is in Tesla you know this this is just positioning and posturing are we getting BuyBacks no are you're going to get massively diluted well you already are as a shareholder of anything basically well with the exception of house hack because we raised it one to one but anyway um yeah look I mean the stock market is dilution I mean you want to see dilution go look at Neo for example okay uh that doesn't mean you can't make money in the stock market but there will be dilution in the future uh Tesla will probably raise money from shareholders again whether it's more stock comp or or directly funding operations which is basically the same thing you you got to realize that okay paying stock comp is dilution and all of these companies pay stock comp which makes sense because employees who work for Tesla they want stockhom duh Tesla's paying out almost half a billion dollar in stock based compensation last quarter 465 million per quarter half a bill per quarter going out in stock based compensation so like totally normal but remember that that is utive if you're a shareholder of Tesla like you are paying for that because if there wasn't half a billion dollars of stock-based compensation every quarter well I mean you could argue that maybe the company wouldn't expand its R&D or whatever as well uh but you know if sales were to Hold Steady the stock value should be higher without that sort of dilutive uh but anyway you could see the dance we playing over here literally the entire time I've been filming this video we've been playing this dance over here and I expect it to continue that's my take on the bird drama I mean the Elon drama appreciate yall and uh thank you appreciate you being here
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