원문 보기
been an awful lot of inks built recently over uh federal reserve and other central banks raising interest rates and that causes people to ask me my thoughts uh on central bank policies i'd really much rather prefer to talk about something much more pleasant than that would be almost anything i have almost nothing good to say about central banks i think central banks could easily be replaced mechanically by an ai system that would be programmed to just simply grow the quantity of money as appropriately defined at a rate consistent with the growth of the economy and whatever social level of inflation is deemed to be acceptable and otherwise stop doing all the rest of the nonsense that they do because almost everything that they do with good intent is in my opinion stupid stuff uh central bankers have never been very good uh they're usually better before they become central bankers and they're usually better after they leave the central bank the the longest-serving head of the u.s fed ever was william chesney martin from 1950s into 1968 uh who uh didn't do very well didn't do terribly as heads of the fed go he did pretty well actually uh but people asked him you know why he did this and that and the other was stupid and he said well you know when you become head of the fed you take a little pill and it makes you forget everything you ever knew and it lasts just as long as your head of the fed he was succeeded by arthur burns in 1969 best prepared person ever up to that point in time to become head of the fed and he was a bloody disaster and afterwards you know he was asked why you did all these things you said you'd never do and he said because i took martin's pill and the reality is i think they all take martin's pill and so if i were you i would recognize the following features about central banks they tend to be more reactors than causers we tend to think they're causers there's so many people in particularly the last decade the last 15 years that don't get that the fed is really a lot less than central banks big central banks are a lot less powerful than people think they are and they're much more reactive to what's going on than causal that's a really hard one throughout the course of the 2009-2020 paul market you heard people repeatedly say that it only was going on because of the fed as i've articulated and written about and documented in lots of ways that was always nonsense at a time like this they say oh it's all going to be bad because of the fed central banks don't have that power they really don't markets overwhelm what they do so i really encourage you not to get too carried away with the phobia that is focusing on central banks actually for most everyone the more you ignore central banks the better off your investing future will be because mostly what stup central banks do is stupid stuff a lot of you don't want to hear that i do understand that but i do think you're better if you come to think through how it is that central banks really are more reactors than causers and in that regard aren't really able to do much
Comments 0