저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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결론: 이 영상은 특정 종목·자산의 가격 예측이 아니라, 변동성기에 감정을 통제하는 투자 원칙을 여러 투자 거장의 명언으로 설명한다. 영상의 핵심 주장은 시장이 극단적으로 흔들릴 때 투자자 자신의 감정 통제가 종목 선택보다 중요하다는 것이다. Ken Fisher는 아버지에게서 배운 키플링의 'If' 시를 지갑 속에 넣고 다니며 힘든 시기에 읽는다고 소개한다. John Templeton은 가장 위험한 네 단어가 '이번엔 다르다(It's different this time)'라고 말했다는 점을 인용한다. 역사적으로 비슷한 패턴이 반복된다는 취지다. Benjamin Graham은 투자자의 가장 큰 문제는 자기 자신이며, 투자 대상의 움직임보다 투자자의 행동이 더 중요하다고 강조한다. Peter Lynch는 Magellan 펀드를 운용한 13년 동안 시장이 10% 이상 하락한 9번 모두 시장을 하회했지만, 전체 기간에는 시장을 크게 이겼다고 말한다. 일시적 하락 중 손실 자체보다 장기 성과가 중요하다는 취지다. 두려움은 투자자가 바닥에서 매도하고 반등을 놓치게 만드는 주된 요인으로 지적된다. Melody Hobson은 용기란 두려움이 없는 것이 아니라 두려움을 극복하는 것이라고 말한다. Warren Buffett의 말을 인용해 미래는 결코 명확하지 않으며, 명확해 보이는 합의에는 높은 가격을 치르게 되고 불확실성은 장기 투자자의 친구라고 설명한다. David Dreman은 두려움은 신문을 팔지만 돈을 벌어주지는 않는다고 했고, Bernard Baruch는 정보가 항상 인간의 감정이라는 틀을 통해 전달된다고 말했다. Michelle Singletary의 비유를 인용해, 주가가 떨어졌을 때 팔고 명확해질 때까지 기다렸다가 다시 사는 것은 세일이 끝나기를 기다렸다가 옷을 사는 것과 같다고 설명한다. 주식은 떨어졌을 때 사람들이 덜 좋아하는 드문 자산이라는 역설도 짚는다. 영상은 2022년처럼 격동적인 시기에 이런 격언들이 도움이 된다고 마무리한다. 출연자 전망: Ken Fisher는 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 발언을 하지 않았으며, 장기적 원칙과 감정 통제의 중요성만 강조했다.
다듬은 글
so in times when markets get crazy volatile emotional verging on euphoria or panic or anything that pulls emotions into the marketplace there's a lot to be said for listening to the wisdom of legendary investment people people who long ago made a big mark on investing for a long time and sometimes people who weren't really part of investing at all but pull from life those same features which become valuable in markets when i was a boy my father drummed into my head read your kipling's if poem i don't think i could ever get over that you know it's it's it's to me a fundamental thing to have in your brain for when things get wacky i for a really long time have carried around with me in my binder clip that i keep my credit cards and everything else in my little pocket here there's rudyard kipling's if poem right there in my little pocket so that i can pull it out whenever and read it the opening lines of it if you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs is one of the most important features you can do regards and he wasn't writing about capital markets the fact is over and over you get these people telling you the truth legendary investor one of the most legendary of all time uh sir john templeton who was a marvelous human being i got to know him a little bit late very late in his life i would say the four most dangerous words in english language are it's different this time and it's always different but it's also never really different all of the features have always been done before in some other similar form that we maybe don't quite fully see it's a great piece of wisdom from john templeton but there are many others benjamin graham himself was a little bit of a odd duck and also he was still around uh in southern california as an old man when i was very young again legendary the father of security analysis and he would say the investor's principal problem is likely to be himself how your investments behave is a lot less crucial than how you behave that's a very hard lesson for people to learn as it comes to investments because it's self-behavior and self-control in times of emotion that are so critical peter lynch in a sarcastic sort of way again a legendary investor that ran fidelity's magellan fund with very high returns for 13 years until he retired said the 13 years that i ran magellan there were nine times when the market was down 10 or more and i had a perfect record i lagged the market every single one of those times the fact of the matter is that being true didn't stop peter lynch from beating the market overall during that time and having a spectacular return it's a point that people don't get because going back to ben graham's comment he also knew how to control himself and that those things that were going down so much at that point in time would come back that much and more when the market bounced back eventually and he held to his convictions and he did not let his behaviors get changed by the market behavior fear is an interesting feature in that whenever we have the market do a sharp break or a sustained break either one the fear builds and it motivates people into doing things that hurt themselves selling out at the bottom before the rebound waiting for so-called clarity we'll talk about that in a minute but melody hobson uh president of uh aerial america's arguably a leading african-american uh own firm uh would say that bravery is not the absence of fear it's overcoming it and the fact of the matter is that goes back to the ben graham line about it's not how your investments behave it's how you behave you can extend that uh in this way and you know there's so many marvelous quotes from warren buffett that i'm not going to begin to ripple through them in fact i encourage you just to go online and look at warren buffett quotes but one that comes to mind is face up to two important facts the future is never clear and you pay a very high price in the market for a cheery consensus but also uncertainty is absolutely the friend of the long-term investor so you may or may not know that uh in the 32 and a half years that i wrote for forbes magazine on a monthly basis portfolio strategy column i was the longest-running columnist in forbes history which slowly i became by outlasting people who had come before me i will have that stature the rest of my life because they stopped running up actual columnists in print which is why i quit at the end of 2016.
but the senior columnist when i was there who i alternated with issued an issue for years was david dreamen who became the seventh longest running columnist in the magazine's history and was a value investor and he would say fear sells newspapers but it doesn't make money in the capital markets in the late 19th century early 20th century bernard baruch was a spectacular traitor later he turned himself into a sort of a lesser political statesman but in his prime days he would say the fundamental problem with uh the stock market is that the information always comes to us through the framework of human emotions and everything that i've been saying to you is about the fact that in times like 2022 how you handle your emotions is more actually important than how you handle your stocks downside creates fear which before too long tends to be replaced with the bounce back that comes eventually but the fear makes so many of us think it will never bounce back or it won't be anything more than a dead decade ahead so i better get out and the fact is it is not the downturn that gets you it's getting out before the rebound that gets you finally one of a contemporary commentators that i like a lot michelle singletary likes to say that getting out as i just described before the rebound after the market has fallen and then waiting for clarity and getting back in when clarity comes which of course is after you get to higher prices it's a lot like waiting for the sale to be over at the department store before you go to buy that jacket that you've had your eye on for quite some time it's a nice quote because it's apt it's true stocks are one of the few things that people like them less when they are lower than they do when they're higher whereas they should be the other way around like the more when they've fallen knowing that they will come back and be higher i encourage you to look for more great quotes from investors and long-time market commentators because they provide you wisdom that will help you get through tumultuous times like 2022 has been
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