Fisher Investments' Founder Ken Fisher Explains How to Position Your Portfolio for a Rebound

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결론: 현재는 장기 약세장 후반의 조정 국면이며, 반등 시 성장주(기술주)가 주도하고 가치·방어주는 상대적으로 뒤처질 가능성이 크다는 견해. 시장 움직임과 업종 관계: 시장이 하락하는 날에는 기술주 등 성장주가 더 크게 밀리고, 상승하는 날에는 그 반대로 움직이는 패턴이 올해 내내 반복됐다고 설명. 과거 조정 사례 비교: 2011년 조정은 약 6개월간 지속되며 장중 약세장 기준(-20%) 아래로 내려갔으나 종가 기준으로는 버텼고, 6개월 시점 이후 강하게 반등했다. 현재 시장의 집합적 움직임이 당시와 유사하다고 봄. 반등기 전략: 반등 초기에는 하락기에 가장 많이 빠진 범주가 가장 크게 오르는 경향이 있으므로, 시장이 계속 하락한다고 믿지 않는다면 가치주보다 성장주에 대한 비중 확대가 맞다고 주장. 가치주·방어주 전망: 현재 언론이 말하는 '지금은 가치주의 시기'라는 견해에 반대하며, 연초 이후 가장 선방한 방어주와 가치주는 반등 국면에서 상대적으로 뒤처질 것으로 봄. 리스크 및 단서: 본인이 틀릴 수 있으며, 앞으로 시장이 과거 패턴대로 움직이지 않을 수도 있다고 명시. 출연자 전망 종합: 단기 조정 후 반등 가능성에 무게를 두고, 반등을 주도할 섹터는 성장·기술주라는 입장.

다듬은 글

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01. this year more than most people struggle with how to posture portfolio and they're mostly i think getting it very wrong looking forward because they're seeing the entanglement of two things that keep them from seeing the real thing and what do i mean by that what i mean by that is we have a feature going on which is almost perfect on days where the market is down fairly much i don't mean 10 20 basis points but down a notch it's the same categories regularly that are doing better and worse on the days when the market's up a good notch we have this reverse the categories that are doing worse on the downside are doing better on the upside the simplest and easiest one to see is tech which is all year long lag markedly on down days a hundred percent perfectly so no but the correlation there is very high on may 26 i did a visual scattergram with some data on this on my twitter feed and you can look that up from may 26th but the fact of the matter is all this year the data points reinforce simple notion said very simply that if the market was going up tech would be doing better than the market if the market was going down tech would be doing worse but you could extrapolate that much more broadly the extrapolation that's more broad and still fully valid is when the market's going up growth stocks are leading when the market's going down growth stocks are lagging the inverses when the market's going down value stocks defined as cheap relative to earnings or book value or dividends or some other valuation criteria ebitda or whatever value companies do better when the market's going down they're doing worse when the market goes up now here's the point that i want you to see when you have either a standard correction or the back end of a bear market either one the categories that lag the most on the downside not a hundred percent but close to bounce the most in the first few months when you get to the rebound so right now if you listen to media if you read so many sources they'll tell you this is the time for value well that's true if you believe the market's going to keep going down if you believe the market's going to go up this is exactly the time not to do value but instead to do growth because the categories that get pummeled the most on the downside as categories again not every single stock i'm talking categories here do the best on the upside my view is has been that this is a correction very elongated in time and fairly steep a lot like the 2011 correction that lasted six months got intraday down below 20 percent the official demarcation of a bear market but couldn't close there played with 20 for a good long time back and forth up to about 14 and back down to almost 20.

02. and then boom exploded on the upside after the six months right after the six month point and that the market behaved then in its aggregates like it's behaving now and i think for a lot of the same reasons and i may be wrong about all of that i may be wrong and it may not act that way moving forward but that's what i think we are having and in that i would expect that the parts that should lead on the way back up are growth tech the parts that should lag are value and the defensive stocks all the ones that have done the very best so far year to date as i speak