Fisher Investments' Founder Ken Fisher Explains the Dangers of Breakevenitis

요약 보기

이번 조정은 전형적인 조정장(correction)이지 약세장(bear market)의 시작이 아니라는 주장. 약세장은 광범위한 시장(MSCI World 등)이 20% 이상 하락하고 상당 기간 지속되는 것이며, 특정 업종 하락은 약세장으로 보지 않는다. 10~20% 하락은 조정, 10% 미만은 정상적 변동성으로 본다. 1925년 이후 S&P 500의 조정 패턴과 비교하면 이번 하락은 전형적 패턴에 부합한다. 보통 2~3개월 지속되며 평균 약 14% 하락하는데, 이번 저점 낙폭은 약 13%다. 약 3분의 2는 V자 회복, 약 3분의 1은 W자 회복 패턴을 보였다. 조정 때 시장 타이밍을 노리는 것은 대부분 실패한다. 조정은 어떤 이유로든, 혹은 이유 없이 발생하며, 그때마다 '최악이다, 사상 처음이다, 재앙이다' 같은 공포 서사가 뒤따르지만 결국 강세장이 재개되는 경우가 많다고 설명. 가장 나쁜 행동은 저점이나 강세장 재개 직후 본전(breakeven)에 도달했을 때 파는 것이다. 이를 '본전병(breakevenitis)'이라 부르며, 본전에서 팔면 장부상 손실은 없지만 이후 6·12·24개월 수익률이 대체로 매우 긍정적이어서 기회비용 손실이 크다고 강조. 결론: 조정 후 반등 시 '다시 떨어질까 봐' 파는 것은 주식을 보유하는 이유 자체를 해치는 행동이며, 신고점 이후의 상승 기회를 놓치는 것이 실제 가장 큰 손실이라는 취지.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. you may have heard me say before and i know i could be wrong that i think that what's been going on in the stock market this year is an almost archetypal stock market correction not the beginnings of bear market and of course the definition of a bear market traditionally is a decline with some good duration of more than 20 percent off of the very broad stock market i like to think of that off of the global stock market msci world you may prefer to think of it as the s p 500 but it's not off of some little narrow sector going down a lot people say that a lot i always get a little annoyed by that when they say something like the steel stocks are in a bear market you know there's something that's always falling apart that doesn't tell you much about the broad market a drop of 10 to 20 is traditionally thought of as a correction is faster uh and ends quicker and reverts to new highs within a bull market and a drop of less than 10 percent is just kind of thought of as normal volatility uh this one based on all of the corrections that have existed for the s p 500 since 1925 uh just fits into the pattern of an archetypal one in terms of the way it's acted from the very beginning they typically depending on whether you're looking at mean or median average last two to three months they drop on average about 14 this one at its bottom so far it's been about 13 percent uh they about two-thirds of the time recover the v-shaped pattern and about a third of the time recover at a w shaped pattern uh and and and and people try to time them and i've always said they come for any reason or no reason they've always got scary worst and first stories oh my god it's terrible it's the worst it's the first this has never happened before this is going to be a catastrophic event but in fact those fears end up being false and the bull market resumes trying to avoid these things is something that no one's ever done very well but when they try they're often in the process once one started of saying i think it's going to be a real bear market and i want to get out i want to get out to sidestep the bear market and if they're right that's perfectly valid thing to do but the worst thing you can actually do is to get out at the bottom of the bee or right after the resumption of the bull market just as it started as you get to break even which is often referred to as brachiavinitis brachivonitis is the desire to get out where you got in so you haven't on paper dollar to dollar lost any money and the problem with breakeven itis is that when you have a correction and you get back to the top the history of that is that the next 6 12 and 24 months is very positive and you miss out on the opportunity costs that had you in stocks in the first place at the moment that the corrections started and that loss of opportunity cost is a bigger draw a bigger real loss for you not a loss in dollars that you lose but a loss in dollars that you should have had than anything that happens within the correction so it's very important when you see a correction rebounding not to say boy oh boy now that it's rebounding i ought to get out before it goes back down for fear that it might because the reality is that once you get to the new high you're going for a nice long ride for a good long time and to miss that is actually a huge opportunity cost and detrimental to why you own stocks in the first place