Fisher Investments' Founder Ken Fisher Shares His Thoughts on Central Bank Policies

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중앙은행 정책에 대한 Ken Fisher의 견해: 중앙은행은 원인보다 반응하는 주체이며 시장을 압도하지 못하므로 중앙은행에 과도하게 집착하지 않는 것이 투자에 낫다. 중앙은행 평가: 중앙은행은 AI 시스템으로 대체 가능하며, 경제 성장과 허용 가능한 인플레이션에 맞춰 통화량만 기계적으로 늘리면 충분하다고 주장한다. 그 외 대부분의 정책은 선의에서 나왔더라도 어리석다고 본다. 역대 연준 의장: 중앙은행장은 되기 전후에 더 유능한 경우가 많다. 윌리엄 체즈니 마틴은 1950~60년대 최장기 의장으로 그나마 잘했으나, '의장이 되면 모든 것을 잊게 하는 알약을 먹는다'는 농담을 남겼다. 후임 아서 번스는 역대 최고 준비된 인물이었지만 큰 실패를 했고, 그도 '마틴의 알약을 먹었다'고 답했다. 시장 영향력: 2009~2020년 강세장 동안 사람들은 연준 때문에 상승한다고 반복했으나 이는 틀린 주장이었다. 지금도 연준 때문에 시장이 나빠진다는 말은 과장이며, 시장이 중앙은행 행동을 압도한다. 투자 조언: 중앙은행 공포에 빠지지 말고 무시할수록 투자 미래가 나아진다. 중앙은행은 원인이 아니라 반응자라고 이해하라. 리스크/조건: 특정 자산에 대한 가격 예측은 제시되지 않았으며, 금리·환율 등 대상 자산에 대한 구체적 방향 발언은 없다. 출연자 전망: 금리 인상기 중앙은행 정책 논쟁에 대해 중앙은행의 영향력을 낮게 보며 장기적으로 시장 중심 관점을 유지한다.

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01. been an awful lot of inks built recently over uh federal reserve and other central banks raising interest rates and that causes people to ask me my thoughts uh on central bank policies i'd really much rather prefer to talk about something much more pleasant than that would be almost anything i have almost nothing good to say about central banks i think central banks could easily be replaced mechanically by an ai system that would be programmed to just simply grow the quantity of money as appropriately defined at a rate consistent with the growth of the economy and whatever social level of inflation is deemed to be acceptable and otherwise stop doing all the rest of the nonsense that they do because almost everything that they do with good intent is in my opinion stupid stuff uh central bankers have never been very good uh they're usually better before they become central bankers and they're usually better after they leave the central bank the the longest-serving head of the u.s fed ever was william chesney martin from 1950s into 1968 uh who uh didn't do very well didn't do terribly as heads of the fed go he did pretty well actually uh but people asked him you know why he did this and that and the other was stupid and he said well you know when you become head of the fed you take a little pill and it makes you forget everything you ever knew and it lasts just as long as your head of the fed he was succeeded by arthur burns in 1969 best prepared person ever up to that point in time to become head of the fed and he was a bloody disaster and afterwards you know he was asked why you did all these things you said you'd never do and he said because i took martin's pill and the reality is i think they all take martin's pill and so if i were you i would recognize the following features about central banks they tend to be more reactors than causers we tend to think they're causers there's so many people in particularly the last decade the last 15 years that don't get that the fed is really a lot less than central banks big central banks are a lot less powerful than people think they are and they're much more reactive to what's going on than causal that's a really hard one throughout the course of the 2009-2020 paul market you heard people repeatedly say that it only was going on because of the fed as i've articulated and written about and documented in lots of ways that was always nonsense at a time like this they say oh it's all going to be bad because of the fed central banks don't have that power they really don't markets overwhelm what they do so i really encourage you not to get too carried away with the phobia that is focusing on central banks actually for most everyone the more you ignore central banks the better off your investing future will be because mostly what stup central banks do is stupid stuff a lot of you don't want to hear that i do understand that but i do think you're better if you come to think through how it is that central banks really are more reactors than causers and in that regard aren't really able to do much