Nicki Leaks is BACK with More Fed Leaks.

요약 보기

연준 관련 Nicki Leaks 정보 및 최근 경제지표(GDI-GDP 격차 축소, 개인저축률 상향 수정, PCE 물가 하락)를 근거로 경기침체 우려가 완화되었다고 보나, 금리 인하의 실질 효과는 늦게 나타나고 점진적 둔화가 진행 중이라고 진단. 일부 대형주 PEG가 높아 고평가 우려를 제기하며, 대선 이후 4분기 실적과 향후 몇 달이 중요하다고 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hey everyone me Kevin here so I'm about to leave DC and I want to give you a breakdown of what the heck just happened with some of these numbers because we got a hint from Nick T Nikki leaks over at the Wall Street Journal we got a little bit of data and a recession revised away this is this is crazy uh so let's go through some of this data I'm I'm unfortunately still on the iPhone 15 so uh hopefully we're able to reduce some of the sound here but let's get this done before I take off so I can upload and go um but first of all GDI that's gross domestic income was suggesting that in 22 and 23 maybe we should have been in a recession because gross domestic income was so low but uh compared to GDP because GDP was still doing well well that Gap was just revised Away by the Bureau of economic analysis along with the decline in the personal savings rate which was as low as 2.9% uh just uh uh in July and all of a sudden it's revised up to 4 .9% now it's still above the 5% level uh or sorry it's still below the 4% level God I can't even speak correctly right now uh it's still below the 5% level that people like to look at as like all right now we're starting to get into this like really low personal savings environment which isn't good because usually when you see personal savings come down so much it's a lead into a recession because people spend the rest of the money they have and it imp that they've already gone through their household savings buffers now this is actually good news that it's revised up if we believe the numbers now I'm I'm slightly jaded I'm not heavily jaded so I actually lean towards saying this is good news that hopefully there's some truth to this data it should help us with our GDP estimate or the Atlanta fed GDP numbers which will get revised today maybe but it all depends on how much the pce numbers weigh in this morning the pce uh uh personal consumption expenditures inflation gauge F preferred measure this basically came in at expectations so there's something really important here even though personal income missed by 20 basis points and personal spending missed by 10 basis points which isn't good there is actually a bigger warning is that plane going to start up now too oh it's going to get way too noisy over here okay uh there was a bigger warning the bigger warning was that you were in a POS oh this is actually better anyway uh I didn't know the AC was on the AC's on this is great uh the bigger warning that came was that you actually had Nick T post a story this morning saying I uh that that I personally think Drome Powell may have had some you know little nudge nudge Winks Winks involved in and he says the question now is how much weakness is under the hood Bank lending has slowed to a crawl over the past year something usually not seen outside of recession and even though the Topline Mor uh interest rates will come down it'll take a while for people to actually get a benefit from higher or lower interest rates because the average mortgage today is 3.9% a lot of Corporations and household balance sheets have lower interest rates so even if you drop interest rates 1 or 2% now you still have cheaper debt in the bank or in your household than what you could be getting in the market today and that means that stimulative effect that you're hoping to get from the fed's cuts may come way later than expected which is not good here's just an example oh yeah this guy's starting up big oh man uh here's just another way to think about this so uh last year inflation PC sat at about 3.4% man all it's getting so noisy boys and girls um that guy's starting up I don't know if you can see him see the lights over there it's kind of cool but anyway uh in all the curtains are on the way over here I'm trying to move through with my laptop I'm going to hit the parking brake I'm going to screw stuff up over here there we go so um what's Wild here is that uh the 2.9% uh oh sorry uh we're talking about the inflation number so a year ago we were sitting at pce inflation of about 3.4% well today the 3month annual PC inflation report is sitting at 1.9% Nick T talked about this morning uh about this this morning and what's remarkable about that is that means that we've actually tightened by keeping interest rates stable by 190 basis points now we're going to minus 50 basis points off of that because we just cut by 50 basis points but in plain English the FED just crimp down on the economy more by 140 basis points 1.4% of BAS basally effective interest rate hikes over the last year and so now the question is hurry up fed can you cut quickly enough to prevent the r word Nobody Knows the problem with recessions we talked about this yesterday is they come suddenly right it's no recession no recession no recession no recession oh my gosh we're in a recession and so it's really hard what what what drives me nuts though right now is that stocks are pricing in an 88% chance of a soft land listen to some of these Peg ratios and and and I've got them written out over here they're just absolutely crazy you've got uh Costco at a 4.4 PEG ratio right now with a 50p that's insane and the way I do this is I take the end of the year EPS uh divide that into the price to get PE obviously and then I go uh divide in the forward four years of average growth so Costco is at a 4.4 Peg price to earnings growth that's very high they should be at like under a two pal teers at a 4.65 they should be at like 2 and 1/2 so they're they're at least two Peg too high which is very bad uh they're almost almost twice as high as they should be uh Tesla's at a 3.38 they should be at like a 1.67 that's way too high uh n phase is low Nvidia is decently low as long as their growth holds up uity is doing okay Wing Stops at a 5.17 that's insane Microsoft's at a two Peg a 2.17 that's actually pretty good for Microsoft because their margins are so high a three peg on wall walart is Rich and I know super micro is only on 1.74 Peg but I don't trust that company not because of the accounting issues but because their margins are so low and then they kind of deceive us on how they're giving away AI server racks I think it's a cooky dookie so anyway uh this is interesting this is all these are all things to that sort of evidence that there's a gradual slowing going on out there and it's not good uh now of course the University of Michigan sentiment the final read today came in a little bit better than expected uh which is good compared to the preliminary 2 weeks ago uh as as sentiment is improving a little bit uh which is fantastic you know potentially the best that we've had in the last four or five months which is great and it suggests that maybe there's some hope now after the 50 basis point cut that maybe we can actually start going in an upward trajectory we'll see and that's the tough part here is where do we go from here my positioning is that we'll have a lot more information by the election and then we evaluate do we think that uh the Q4 sales are going to lead to layoffs in q1 or did we Dodge the recession the next few months are the tell in my opinion by the way if you want actual we're now taking on clients starting October 1st so we're super excited to see you there go to stack.com to learn more about how we can actually help you give you real Financial Insight this is not about you know I mean you could be all in S&P 500 this is all about evaluating how do you balance that with real estate with crypto uh with bonds how do you balance that with do you have a trust a will how are you setting up your retirement how are you setting up your children's future how are you setting up your financing your debt your jobs your business all of that learn more at stock.com we'll see you soon