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첫 줄: 하워드 막스는 금리 하락기 전략의 한계와 고금리 장기화, 그리고 시장의 심리 과열 위험을 경고하며 감정 통제와 펀더멘털 중심 투자를 강조했다. [시장 심리와 버블] 엔비디아 급락 시 다른 자산도 동반 하락했는데, 이는 펀더멘털이 아닌 심리 전염 때문이라고 설명. 버블은 가격 상승기가 아니라 일시적 광기이며, FOMO가 공포를 압도하는 시기라고 진단. 밸류에이션 과열 자체보다 그 과정의 객관성 상실이 핵심 문제라고 봄. [금리 환경 전망] 향후 10년은 금리 하락이나 초저금리 시대가 아닐 것으로 전망. 2009~2021년 초저금리에서 통했던 전략이 고금리 안정기에는 통하지 않는다고 경고. 연준 가이던스보다 장기 정책과 경제 환경이 중요하다고 강조. [자산별 기대수익] 주식(소유형 자산)은 과거 100년 평균 10%지만 현재 밸류에이션에서는 저조할 가능성. 골드만삭스 3%, JP모건 2~6% 인용. 하이일드 채권은 약 7.3% 수익률로 상대적으로 매력적이며 불확실성이 낮다고 평가. 월스트리트저널 인용: 주식 위험프리미엄이 2002년 이후 최저, 국채 대비 음수. [대체투자·부실채권·사모신용] 대체투자는 매니저 역량에 따른 알파 수익을 추구하고 시장 변동으로부터 고객을 격리해야 한다고 강조. 고금리 지속으로 저금리기에 과도하게 차입한 기업들의 부채 만기(2026~2027년) 도래 시 부실 기회가 늘어날 것으로 보고 대규모 펀드를 조성했다고 언급. 사모신용은 금융위기 같은 시스템 리스크 가능성은 낮지만 자본 유입 속 투자 기준 완화 여부가 관건이라고 봄. [비트코인] 아들의 권유로 발언을 자제한다고 하면서도 비트코인 가격(약 10만 2천 달러)을 언급. 버핏의 '쥐약 제곱' 비유를 인용하며 부정적 시각을 시사했으나 직접적 가격 전망은 제시하지 않음. [결론·조언] 단기 사건에 과도하게 신경 쓰지 말고 장기 펀더멘털 투자 원칙을 지킬 것, 감정 통제가 단기 성과의 핵심이라고 강조. 보유 자산이 강한 펀더멘털에 기반하는지 재점검할 것을 권고.
다듬은 글
you can't be a good investor if your emotions dominate you because then you'll make the same mistakes as everybody else in the market you'll buy too much when things get too exciting and prices are too high and you'll get depressed and sell when things are too low and everybody else is selling so you know control over one's emotions is is one of the most important things in the short run I don't believe that the next 10 years will be characterized by declining interest rates or ultra low interest rates and that's a major change in the environment and the things that worked the best in a period of declining and ultra low rates will not necessarily be the things that work best in a period of stable and generally higher rates and people have to accept that I've been interviewing Howard for 21 years before you were all born obviously all the same questions all the same questions today it be different though because if you don't research for Howard you're in serious trouble because he will challenge me most was on bloomo TV we've done a few conferences but I won't waste time because you want to hear about from him not me I think in the audience today particularly deep seek is front of Center as his interest rates because the FED meets today and of course announces tomorrow with no change expected it's 4.5% nevertheless tariffs and inflation is an uncertainty for the FED guidance but I want to just start how and go straight into it if I can let's just talk about deep seek let's talk about Nvidia the darling of the tech stocks have been rattled I think Monday fell by 16% it may have bounced back will bounce back this morning but nevertheless this Chinese chat bot cheaper version if you like has certainly rattled on Bloomberg this morning headlines ft what is the Howard Mark's take on the tech space now that deep Seekers arrived well I don't have a take on the tech space I don't know anything about tech and we practically don't do anything with with stocks for the most part but I think is a really important lesson to be learned from the action yesterday and you know I was busy yesterday and I came down here and took a look at my phone and it talked about Nvidia being down 600 billion dollars in value at the time but the interesting thing to me was that everything else was down big and you know unsurprisingly perhaps to you I keep the stock prices of the company in our industry on my phone and they were all down big including Brookfield which we're allied with and that's the interesting part and markets all around the world have reflected this action why development with regard to deep seek which put Nvidia down so much was very specific competitive threat to their activity and as the Brits would say full stop right so so why would anything else go down in sympathy why the investment manager stocks and so what's the connection what's the common thread and the answer is psychology and you know psychology is by far the dominant influence on investing in the short run it has very little to do in the short run with fundamentals how did yesterday's developments fundamentally affect all these other companies and industries and countries and the answer is they didn't the thread is psychology and you know I put out a memo earlier this month on the subject of bubbles because January 2nd was the 25th anniversary of the first memo I ever wrote that got any response called bubble.com about the what was going on in the tech space 25 years ago and I said in the memo this memo that that a bubble is not a period of rising prices it's a period of temporary insanity and if it were just objective clinical unemotional investors looking at Nidia there would be no reason why yesterday's news should knock all these other things down but it just shows you the pervasiveness of psychology and the irrationality of the markets in the short run but is it also valuations are very stretched I mean temporary inan well it's temporary insanity that leads to stretch valuations but to me the important thing is not the stretch valuations it's how they got there and it's through this loss of objectivity which then you have to then you have to say to yourself well how is that affecting every other part of the market including the parts I care about is that therefore the herd mentality that everyone follows Nvidia even though Shares are rising and rallying in fact you got to be in it or you lose out well that's what happens like that's what happens in a bubble people say you know basically everybody everything swe swings towards optimism and greed and risk tolerance but basically you know we're supposed to be afraid of losing money our own and our clients but in a bubble the bubbles go where they go because fomo takes over from the fear of losing money and people become petrified that somebody else will be in something and they won't be in it and they'll they'll have to kick themselves or they'll they'll lose out competitively you know kindleberger in the book bubbles Mania is panics man Mayes and crashes said there is nothing so injurious to your mental well-being as to watch your friend get rich and that statement typifies the sentiment that takes over in a bubble but for those in the audience who are waking up this morning extremely nervous highly exposed what's your advice at this current moment how do you deal with the situation well first of all you know with your approach to it not first of all I mean yesterday's what happened yesterday the reality affected Nvidia AI Tech the impact the carry-on impact into other sectors should go away you would think because it had no fundamental import except that it connoted elevated psychology and so everybody should look at their Holdings and try to make sure that the things they own they own based on strong and improving fundamentals and not just it don't hold them just because they think they're going up now of course nobody in this room would ever hold anything just cuz they think it's going up they would have to have reasons but I think it's time to double check hey everyone just wanted to quickly say I hope you are enjoying this video and thank you for supporting the channel to show my appreciation I compiled 17 years worth of Howard Marx's legendary investment memos that you can download for completely free at the link in the description of this video make sure to get your copy because legendary investor Buffett has said that Marx's memos are the first thing he reads whenever he gets a copy in the mail let's get back to the video let's talk about Market dislocation yes and navigating Market uncertainty I w't go into Politics on this because there's uncertainty about what's going to happen regarding tariffs obviously that's going to weigh on the FED guidance tomorrow guidance probably more important than the actual raid decision we all all agree on that but I mean how do you navigate I mean you've well the question really is sorry how should investors position themselves for the coming months I'm not asking you to forecast I know you don't like that question I wouldn't do that but how do you position yourselves now in the alts alternative classes well I think that one of the characteristics of alternative Investments is these are everybody makes these Investments because they're supposedly Alpha Investments there are supposed to be Al Investments where the return will be primarily a function of the skill and judgments made by the managers of the Investments that's as opposed to Beta Investments where most of the return is a function of what goes on in the market so I think you know we should be the the alternative managers and their investors should be relatively isolated from so-called Market developments and what what should be well there should be but sometimes psychology takes over and becomes this overarching trend not supposed to be the case but I think you know we just have to we should be able to isolate our clients from Market developments because they should not be at the heart of our returns and you know if we what I say at oak tree is that we try to find companies we try to invest in companies that will grow and companies who will repay the money we lend them that's the important thing not what the FED does or what the market does or what the administration does or something like that so you know one of of the features of alternative investing should be that we diversify our clients from Market developments and but of course we have to constantly make sure that we've made our investment decisions for good fundamental reasons do you feel a wall of uncertainty coming at you from your 35 years or is it longer of being in the markets well 55 you're kind how it is I shouldn't say this but I will say this if you don't mind how it is 18 next year he's actually 78 now but he's 79 in April and he's still flying around the world he has an incredible energy also in know survived cancer two years ago and he's and he's just standing strong so it's just an extraordinary power it's a question of how do you push through this well you personally just general yeah I mean you know you can't be a good investor if your emotions dominate you because then you'll make the same mistakes as everybody else in the market you'll buy too much when things get too exciting and prices are too high and you'll get depressed and sell when things are too low and everybody else is selling so you know control over one's emotions is is one of the most important things in the short run you know you asked about uncertainty I think that uncertainty you know and what do you do about developments in the political Arena today you know uncertainty is the word of the day with in normal circumstances you try to figure out what you think will happen that's important in the long run in let's say the political Arena and you maybe bias your plans a little bit toward that although again what should matter is the specifics of your companies and industries and not what goes on in the socalled big picture but you have to admit today that we know less than usual about what the future holds in that regard and this Administration is less predictable than that's the problem isn't it it's unpredictable and uncertain there's two there's two yeah leadings to it yeah well I don't know if the members of the administration could predict what they're going to do a year from now I said l no I can't I don't think you could enunciate a Common Thread that runs through these activities other than dislike of the establishment but exactly how it's going to manifest itself we don't know and we want uh tax cuts and smaller deficits and we want to discourage Imports and control inflation and there are many ways in which the individual manifestations of the attitude are in conflict with each other it's hard to find the common logic so most people you have a very strong view of what they stand for and what they're going to do in consequence and I think today we have to just watch to see how this administration's predels determine its actions we've I will go to in detail AIC classes after this question not hopefully not interest rates we must tackle that yeah it's really about the guidance tomorrow when the FED announces 4.5% but I think the question for the audience really is how do you see you talked about facts right see changing rates back in 2022 your memo 2029 2021 was that period who talked about the SE change in rates how does the rate environment affect asset prices Howard well how they now now you're talking because interest rates constitute our environment just like water is to fish you know and they determine whether the rate of in economic activity and they determine the value of assets because among other things the value of an asset is the discounted present value of the future cash flows and when you decrease the interest rate you increase the discounted present value so it's a direct relationship however I will take issue when you say it's all about the FED guidance tomorrow because I try to dissuade people from caring too much about short-term events and I wrote a memo in November of 22 which got relatively little attention called what really matters and I talked in there about five things that don't matter in my opinion short-term events short-term performance short-term trading hyperactivity and volatility should not matter to a long-term fundamental investor and I mentioned in there that in 2017 for example the only question I ever got was what month is the Fed going to start raising interest rates and I would say well why do you care if I tell you march what will you do and if I tell you oh no no it's not March it's May what will you do different and people ask about these things in my opinion have no importance the day an interest rate action is announced that may influence prices that day and maybe the next day but it doesn't in influence the course of events that will determine on long-term based on long-term policy and on the larger economic environment that materializes so I don't care about the guidance I made the case in late 22 which I called the sea change that in 1980 I had a loan outstanding from a bank personally and I got a slip in mail that said the rate on your loan is now 22 and a quarter and 40 years later in 2020 I was able to borrow at two and a quarter and so rates came down by 2,000 basis points over 40 years and anybody who came into this business since 1980 which I imagine includes most of you have only seen declining interest rates or ultra low interest rates or both and I don't believe that the next 10 years will be characterized by declining interest rates or ultra low interest rates and that's a major change in the environment and you know the declining interest rates over that period and the ultra low interest rates were like a moving walkway at the airport and you get on the walkway and you walk at your normal speed and you make great progress over the ground and you say boy I'm fit but it's not you you know and in the same way people made certain decisions and companies made a lot of money over the period you mentioned 09 to 21 which was really the easy time cuz the FED funds rate was Zero most of the time and average to half a percent and the people who made those decisions say boy I'm a decision maker but it was the rates and if Eisenhower said no Einstein said that the definition of insanity is doing something over and over and expecting a different result I think another version of insanity is doing the same thing in an entirely different environment and expecting the same result so the things that worked the best in a period of declining and ultra low rates will not necessarily be the things that work best in a period of stable and generally higher rates and people have to accept that and so I look at the FED to try to figure out which it's going to be and I have my conclusion you have confidence in J own pal I do yeah I haven't taken issue with the are you relieved that he's staying as Fed chair when you heard yeah I would not take out any multi-year subscriptions at this point but I I'm relieved that I be I believe he'll be there until May of 26 and I think that's a great thing for the country before we when we were talking about what to discuss Howard said please can you point out my Memo from October for those who read the memos I'm sure you all do ruminating on asset allocation the only asset classes are ownership and debt differ enormously in terms of their fundamental nature and to me ownership is stocks and debt is fixed income or bonds but I want to kind of just because you got time has always against us always against us Howard but I want to ask in the capacity for this audience in alternative you are the probably the largest global investment of alternative classes 200 million I believe yeah 200 billion excuse me AUM and you know the roots are in private credit yes so it's distressed debt and private credit here real estate even crypto they're all Alternatives so with that memo in mind ownership debt can you just I won't talk anymore just talk about the Alternatives that excite you that you're nervous about well you know if you take what I call ownership assets which are stocks companies properties for the most part their probability distribution governing their future returns or future developments looks something like this your standard bell-shaped curve and historically of course for the last 100 years the S&P has averaged 10% return so quite good but sometimes 20 and sometimes zero for maybe a decade zero in the decade of the Arts in 20 in the decade of the 90s then you look at lending strategies fixed income strategies and the distribution of returns looks like this it's very tall and very narrow there's a very little uncertainty with regard to what the long-term return on an 8% bond is going to be there's no upside you're not going to make 10 here's a shocker but you're also likely if you put together a portfolio of 8% bonds you're probably not going to make less than seven so very little uncertainty but a lower expected return because it's more reliable ownership assets have a wider range of possible outcomes but a higher expected return because you're asked to shoulder uncertainty so what I said at the better which is better and in a market which is intelligent or efficient there is no better or worse it's only your personal choice and your predilections and the the application to your situ situation so and by the way it's not all one or all the other you mix them so you get a progression of curves that the more uncertainty you shoulder you normally expect a higher expected return but with increased uncertainty but you look today and the things that we do are typified by high ill bonds for example and I was really lucky because I was asked to start City bank's highi Bond activities in 1978 when it when that business started so today higho bonds offer 7.3% which is a pretty good return in the absolute and you know more than most institutions need but then you look at the S&P which historically has returned 10 for the last century and Goldman Sachs came out at the beginning of November and said over the next decade stocks will make three and JP Morgan published a table at the very end of the year which showed that if you bought the S&P at today's p e ratio anytime between 88 and 2014 you made betweenus 2% and 2% so slightly different but same zip code low singled digigit returns so if you can get low singled digigit returns from the S&P with great uncertainty and 7.3 from high your bonds contractually isn't it better that's all and the Wall Street Journal had a story yesterday the first sentence said that by one measure stocks offer the lowest Equity risk premium since 2002 and in fact it was a negative relative to treasuries so you know you have to you can't say well stocks are better stocks are great stocks have returned 10% a year for 100 years you have to say what are they likely to return from where they're priced today and I think that the outlook for ownership returns is not as good as it usually is relative to the risks entailed with that in mind then because time is against us I keep saying that you are a Pioneer in distress debt and in private credit there is a boom in credit private credit can it be sustained and distress debt is often as you was told me it's catching falling knives John yeah often within a crisis situation yeah which of those areas excites you and which of those would you think like for example private credit there's a a boom people are concerned about it can it be sustained so well look distress nervous not nervous the only thing that ever makes me nervous is we we won't have great things to buy I'm never worried that they're going to be negative developments in the macro environment that's what we make our money for especially if we can approach them on emotional because you have appetite for risk right a strong epist but you know one of the everything has been so Placid the momentary exception of the pandemic in 2020 everything has been so Placid in the investment environment from let's say 2010 to date really that you know there hasn't been much distress and there hasn't been much for the bargain hunter or the opportunist to do in the last 15 years you know I do believe that in the period of ultra low interest rates a lot of companies were saddled with capital structures that they will not be able to sustain given rates four or 500 basis points higher which I think will prevail and where credit is not quite as easy to get and when those debts start coming due mostly in 26 and 27 some percentage of them will not be easily rolled over and then we'll have more to do so I'm excited about that and we've raised a big fund to do it which is only half invested but you know you talk about private credit it's such a broad thing and I think you know the question we get is whether that is the next systemic risk area I don't think so because I don't think there's the interconnectedness and the high level of Leverage that we saw for example in the banks during the global financial crisis but I think what you have to think about is whether the managers who benefited from the onrush of capital into the sector wisely were patient applied high standards and demanded good quality underlying assets during this Gold Rush how do you view two more questions how do you view crypto 109,000 that my my son Andrew has convinced me not to say anything about it okay but you he says Dad it's not a good idea to talk about things you don't know anything about you talk about only your son can say that to you of course you talk about uh temper Mania that fall into the okay who knows we'll see War Buffett okay it was back in 2018 likened it to rat poison squared and predicted a band Bad end what Andrew uh lived with us during the pandemic and he bought it at 4,000 and today it's 102,000 so it's hard for me to tell him he's wrong okay that's a good line final question for you are you going to slow down at all why right that's a good answer I'll slow down when you slow down okay I'm not going to slow down I mean what would I do what would you do well I'm not a golfer and I don't you know it's stimulating what I do and I'm blessed with good jeans and I can keep going so why would not traveling relentlessly yeah why would flying you flowing in last night fly out you know what Bill Graham who ran a club called The Filmore which was a rock Club in San Francisco in the' 60s said one said it's only work if you'd rather be doing something else on that note thank you very much I hope you found this video both entertaining and informative if you're interested in learning more about Howard marks make sure to download this completely free investing guide at the second link in the description of this video marks has become a billionaire thereby mastering the art of avoiding losing money the ultimate Howard Mark's risk management guide shows exactly how you can follow Mark's investment strategy to help reduce risk when investing make sure to check it out because it is my free gift to you for supporting the channel also if you enjoyed this video check out Howard Mark's 78 years of investing wisdom in 60 minutes here because with over 1.2 million views this video is having a huge impact on people I'll see you over there
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