저자: Traders Reality · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 최근 증시 급락의 원인을 AI 우려가 아니라 정치적 요인에서 찾는다. 발표자는 J.D. 밴스 부통령의 발언을 인용하며 정치 상황이 시장 불안을 키웠다고 주장한다. 민주당이 내놓을 것으로 보이는 AI 관련 법안과 데이터센터 규제 계획이 투자자들 사이에 공포를 퍼뜨렸다는 것이다. 발표자는 트럼프 대통령이 법안 통과를 막을 것이라고 전망하면서, 데이터센터 건설이 다른 나라로 옮겨갈 경우 미국이 고용과 이익을 잃게 된다는 논리를 덧붙인다. 경제 지표에 대해서도 언급한다. 비농업 고용이 16만 5천 건 늘고 실업률이 4.1%라는 점을 들며 경제가 버티고 있다고 본다. 브렌트유가 소폭 내렸고 금값도 하락 흐름을 보인다고 설명한다. 이를 근거로 안전자산 수요가 줄었다고 해석한다. 기술주에 대해서는 고점 대비 약 20% 낮게 거래되는 엔비디아를 할인 상태로 묘사하며, 기술 자체와 사업 모델에는 변화가 없다고 주장한다. 변동성 지수(VIX)가 보험료처럼 작용해 시장 사건을 가격에 반영했다는 설명도 덧붙인다. 다만 영상은 유료 회원권과 거래 플랫폼 가입을 적극적으로 권유하는 내용을 포함하고 있다. 이 부분은 투자 판단의 근거로 보기 어렵고, 실제 시장 상황과 주요 주장은 독립적으로 검증이 필요하다.
다듬은 글
What we have in context and reason is that the trigger appears to be politics. Vice President J.D. Vance said it was clear why so many voters had turned away from the Republican Party. to win something without our approval. He wasn't the only one trying to appear strong. We are not backing down, and this is especially true now.
So, the collapse of AI happened because it was politics. Democrats have now put forward what looks like plans for these wonderful bills that are about to pass. Well, nothing can be pushed through until January 3rd, and Mr. Donald Trump is pulling out his old tricks to let them know that he won't let anything get through Congress.
So, let's take a look at this beautiful moment in the market. I thought Black Friday was just for retail. Go to your local grocery store, your local Tesco or Sainsbury's, they have little Black Friday deals there, or buy yourself a TV for a third of the price. But you just got your discount on the tech market.
Let's put this on the shelves. Oh, and I forgot. I didn't start this video with the old "well, well, well." So, things went downhill, and of course, headlines like: US tech stocks plummet as Democrats' data center plans shake up AI. With that in mind, they plan to flood Congress with a bunch of AI bills once they gain control.
This means that from now until then they will do nothing, but fear has already been sown among investors. But we have our old reliable Trump, who will make sure that these bills do not pass, because not so long ago Trump was saying: " Data centers, data centers, let's work on the program." And Trump will obviously argue and say, " If you're going to stop building these data centers here, they're going to be built somewhere else, and we're going to lose the potential profits that we could get from all these companies wanting to put these centers in and skyrocket employment." Given that today the unemployment rate is 4.1%.
Let's quickly move on and take a look at this handsome guy. Digging into the actual data, you can see that the number of jobs was 165,000. These analysts have no idea what is happening at all. I'm scrolling through Instagram, looking at what people are saying about gold and why they think its price will go up?
We've had a lot of geopolitical events that technically should have pushed gold up, but too much money is invested in technology, and the technology sector is not giving up, and we need to understand that. There are so many negative views on artificial intelligence . They say it's a "bubble," it's going to burst, it's a scam, and all that, but the technology itself remains the same.
Nothing changes, right? All these emerging AI models, all these ways to improve how AI works. The technology is fine, the service is fine too. Ultimately, if you want a quality product, you have to pay the appropriate price, and if it solves a problem, makes your job easier, or generates more interest in your company, you will make that payment.
Of course , we have had discussions with Qualcomm and ARM Holdings, who say, "yes, there are some problems with the chips," but they are only talking about what is happening within their sector. AI in general, ladies and gentlemen, does not stop, and now we will quickly analyze this logic to understand why now is potentially a very good time to buy shares of AI companies.
You've heard me say before: when the price is high, buy. Now let's see what happens. The volatility index is down a bit, and here's what you need to understand about the VIX. Market events are priced into the price as investors are effectively buying insurance against a large upward move . Considering that the stock market suffered a real crash yesterday.
We were so close to a trading halt, and this is the moment when the CME says, "no, enough of this." We are not allowing you to continue trading. Moving on to the NASDAQ, you see that the index is now holding up well after these lows. But, Tina, there's so much going on, man. For example, Democrats are going to introduce AI bills that would stop the construction of these data centers.
There's this story with interest rates. I mean, the story with unemployment claims. Look what happened there, Tina. See how many vacancies are available on the market. I mean, look at this. This is brilliant information. Here's what you need to understand . The market dropped significantly yesterday.
This means , according to the logic of buy and sell orders, that many people were actively buying assets yesterday. You can't sell if no one is buying. These are simple market facts. So when you have a large concentration of buyers, you have to look at it this way. Imagine you are a trader. And when you open a short, and you do it from the bottom of the movement, when you look up, say to yourself, "What's up there?
I'm down here, and I open a short. I look up and think, where are all these guys up there?" And these are the same guys who plan to sell. They wave to you, saying, "How are you doing, bro? You down there. You sell from there? We sell from here, and you sell from below. What does that say about your position?
Hmm. Of course, the art is to find the right spot, because you can open a short and the price will continue to go down. But look at what happened in the market. The Nasdaq just bled. Let's get back to that. Look, guys. I'll just give you an example. The Nasdaq just went through this absolute collapse.
It's down about 6%. The tech sector got hit. Nvidia, uh, but it's up 6%. When the price is high—buy. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the only time you buy on the highs—is when the volatility index comes in and paints you these great vector candles. You've heard me talk about them before . They love to overlap them.
The VIX is getting ready to overlap what looks like a nice little dip down. And now Here's a little multiplier. When you take the volatility index move, which is 26, which was the move up, and you divide it by 16, you get 1.3% to 1.4 %. That means that over the next 30 days, there could be a 1.3% to 1.4% move up or down.
So, based on the logic of the data that we have in front of us, when the NASDAQ is trading at these lows, we have a nice red vector candle down, which means that price has not continued to move lower , and now we see the vector candle come into play. Logic tells us that we expect an upward move. Let me open up an asset that you guys thought was inflated, and you're like, "Oh my God, it's collapsing." Let me just show you this good guy right here.
What do you think is going to happen to Google, ladies and gentlemen? Hmm? What do you think is going to happen to Google? What's going on here? They're getting ready to push this thing up. Just get ready for it, guys , because the technology hasn't changed, the business model hasn't changed, they've got the same customers.
I mean, why on earth is NVIDIA showing this 7% growth? Because you just got your discount, guys. They're down from their all- time highs. NVIDIA stock is trading about 20% off its all-time high right now. That, ladies and gentlemen, is a discount. To me, it's a discount across the board. So let's see where we are from a macroeconomic perspective.
Well, look at our guy here. Brent crude. Ah, look at that. Nice move down. What does that mean? But , you know, oil prices are still high. Yeah, for you guys, but they're down a little bit for the market because investors think they've already accepted the Iran war story and everything else. Yeah, that's because Donald Trump lost the war, Congress.
So what next? We're going to keep attacking until January, until the Democrats come in and say, enough of your war? Well, it all depends on what kind of conversations Donald Trump has with the Democrats. He says he's happy to work with them. But let's put aside for now where we are from a macroeconomic perspective with respect to the market regime.
They've taken into account all the events that have happened up to this point. The next major event, of course, what is it? It's interest rates. Unless the Democrats put forward this bill that will completely destroy AI, which I don't believe. It's not going to happen, they're not going to do it. And if they do, ladies and gentlemen, AI is going to keep growing anyway, because it's unstoppable.
It's not going to stop. The data centers are going to be there, they're just going to build them somewhere else. That's to the benefit of the United States. They're just going to build them in Japan, they're going to build them in China, they're going to build them in Europe. It doesn't matter, you know?
The US is just going to lose that revenue, or rather, it's like that. Now, you just got the non-farm payrolls data , which says, of course, 165,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate falling, what does that mean? Well, that means we're going to see interest rate hikes, right? That means the economy is supporting itself.
But wait a minute, Tino. Why is the market going up? Well, let me point you to something. So, if you want some free money, joining BTCC through Traders Reality will give you an exclusive 15% deposit bonus. Just for you, my friends. And if you do, that means you're ready to trade QQQ. Sure, you can trade SPX.
You can trade gold, you can trade silver, you can trade stocks. Heck, you can even trade Google and Nvidia when the news comes out next week. If you want to take advantage this, follow the link in the description below. Here's the setup that I've put together for platinum members. If you're not a platinum member, that's actually what you're missing.
They get this every morning , and that's what we do. They get this daily market review. It gives you an idea of where we are in the market. It breaks down the dealer positions. It breaks down the options traders and the trader commitments. It lays everything out so we understand where we are in the market.
Now, this morning we shared the nonfarm payrolls forecast . My expectation was that the market would go up regardless of the jobs data. Look at that. We have a couple of options. I mean, I was expecting the euro to move down, and it's already moving down . I wanted to see a little pullback. It didn't quite make it , but it did actually move down.
So the forecast was actually correct, and that's what's tricky about it, ladies and gentlemen. Gentlemen. I'm forecasting six asset classes, and they're moving differently. It's tough. When you forecast six different assets, that means there has to be some correlation. Positive correlation. When the dollar goes up, the euro goes down.
Gold goes down , right? Look at this. The euro is moving down. That's exactly what we expected this morning. Gold should be moving down. That's what we expected. Why? Because the data is going to show that jobs are doing well. Right? Okay. Go to the gold price, and you'll see here that gold is trading down, right?
It's not completely down yet, but you can see where it's likely to end up, gentlemen, if the day continues in this vein. And why do I predict gold will go down? Because investors no longer need to look for a safe haven. Why? They did yesterday. Can't you see the difference between the gold price action yesterday and the Nasdaq ?
Look, you can see that gold was down during the Asian overnight session . And yet, the Nasdaq was up . It's up. What does that tell you? It tells you that investors are no longer looking for safe havens. That's why the euro fell last night , and that's why I expect the euro to continue to move lower.
Now let's just look at the Nasdaq forecast. That's my forecast. Red vector candle. Watch yesterday's video. I gave you an example of that. There was a red vector candle that we were trading into. The Nasdaq has now found and held that low right here at 27,056. The entry point is activated. Go to the Nasdaq and you'll see it doing what we call a vector candle recovery.
It's on its way, gentlemen. So if you catch this video in time , you can take advantage of a little bit of that . That's what you get with platinum. membership. It's hard to predict assets that move in opposition to each other. It's hard to tell the difference between whether we're in a safe haven environment or not.
Right now, I have Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana, and they're all currently preparing for what could be a continuation of a small pullback . Of course, if you want to understand the entry points and the logic behind why I believe assets are going to move in a certain direction on a certain day , then the Platinum membership will give you that access, gentlemen.
But more importantly, it's the market insight that you get as a Platinum member. I'm not just throwing signals at people, I'm laying it all out there and giving everyone an understanding so that we're all on a level playing field as to what's going on in this chaotic market. But we have a hybrid system that gives us clues as to the direction that price is likely to go .
Remember, trading is about probabilities. There are no ifs, no buts, no guarantees. Everything It depends on whether it happens. I know what I said—no ifs or buts, but you get the point. We're putting ourselves in a position of probability: How likely is it that this will happen? So what do you think?
We have to do this damn deal to find out. When there's a big market event that forces investors to urgently reduce risk, they always turn to the volatility index. I keep saying this: when it's high, buy. And now that the VIX has actually priced in the event, the market is offering the assets for more because the insurance has been paid for.
They've taken out insurance, and that's why you're seeing the stock market move up. And now, moving forward, the only thing left to do is understand the dialogue between Donald Trump and the Democrats: what will be accepted and what won't. It's going to be a story that continues. But understand this: when the market was close to a halt and there was this rush of selling yesterday, everyone was worried selling, but nobody paid attention to buying.
So everyone who is short now is paying the price for it. Remember, you can't buy if nobody is selling, and you can't sell if nobody is buying. You want to understand this visually, through an analogy. Go into a store and ask the clerk, "Hey, sir, I'd like to buy whatever you're selling." And he says, "Well, look around, my friend, there's nothing behind me ." My shelves are empty." "Yes , but I really want to buy something." Sell me at least something.
"And he's like:" Dude, don't you understand? "'I have nothing to sell.' So you, as a buyer , think, 'Oh my God.' 'I have money and I want to spend it , but he won't give me anything.'" I can't buy anything." So what do we have as a result? You have zero market. And if there's no market, there's no movement.
That's why we trust market makers to provide liquidity. But if there's no buying or selling, you don't have a market. And if there's buying and selling, you'll find that when the price is going down, they're buying it all. And when the price is going up, they're selling it all . Just go back to all those dips, look at how many companies in their 13F reports, insider trading, etc., how many of them were selling stock when they were nearing their all-time highs.
Then you'll understand the buyer and seller story, because it's not what you think it is. If you've seen this far, I'd really appreciate a subscription if you enjoyed today's content. And more importantly, it's time to go shopping, ladies and gentlemen. All your big players got a discount before Nvidia's earnings report.
Isn't that no questions asked, huh? Makes sense, right? So, sending love and respect, see you all next week. Peace.
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