저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
신규 투자자는 자격·경험 없이 직접투자하면 안 되고 먼저 뮤추얼펀드로 시작해 3~4년 경험을 쌓아야 한다고 주장. 주식시장에서 학위보다 경험(약세장 경험)이 중요하다고 강조. 스몰·스레싱캡 종목의 위험과 고평가 종목의 하락 가능성을 언급하며 물타기 여부는 종목별로 판단해야 한다고 함. 최근 강세장이 길어지고 약세장이 짧아지는 구조적 변화가 있었다는 견해를 밝힘. 자산배분은 심리적 감내 능력과 2~3년 내 쓸 필요 없는 자금을 기준으로 해야 한다고 조언.
다듬은 글
So my belief is this, Sir, I am telling any investor who is a new investor without any qualification, without having done any course or without knowing their financial parameters, I am saying this just like that, I will not invest in them, you should know the success rate in the stock market, you yourself said that 40-50% profit has been cleared, what a big thing you are saying, try to understand, even after that you are saying that I will do average, you are not understanding the meaning of this, Sir, it is difficult for a new person to understand, people have spent their entire life here and by the time they know the solution answer, they say that life changes the question paper, the same is happening in the stock market, Sir, here new dimensions are created every day, you cannot understand them here and for this, what I explain here, Sir, education is not important for success here, I am important, I have a quote, Sir, no academic degree can get you success in stock market.
In my opinion, the most important thing for success is experience and unless you fall here, unless you have seen the bear market, unless you have lost sleep at night, you cannot succeed here. This is the Brahma Vakya, I think, what I understand is that it is written, you should test these things anytime.
So, any new person who comes to the stock market, sir, do not come with dreams, you think that I will come, I will break it, I will become a millionaire, I will win this, I will win that, this can never happen, this is not a Raj Kapoor movie, Shri will give you a house for Rs 420, so by saying this, my opinion is that every new person should start with mutual funds, sir, start with mutual funds and then keep weighing yourself, first do mock trading or mock investing or increase your knowledge, invest three to four years in the stock market, after that, slowly you can try to do that.
Try to do direct investment, first of all, secondly, I don't have the answer to your question, sir, whether one should do average or what should be done, because when we talk about the stock market, we talk about 5000 scripts, I have a quote, sir, that there is large cap, there is mid cap, there is small cap, there is another cap, which is called threshing cap, so within the threshing cap, out of the 5000 or 6000 shares that are listed, 90% of the shares are threshing cap, sir, if 5000 are listed, then 4000 shares are threshing cap, and the new people who come, they invest in threshing cap, they say tell me the lion of Rs., tell me the lion of Rs.
50, they will go to the thieves management only, they do not know, that is what attracts them, that maybe I will be ruined in this, I will become a billionaire in this, so there are so many myths, sir, within the stock market, so it is difficult for me to say this, I wanted to say that that script of yours Which one do you have or should you average or not?
I don't have a generic answer to this, you should average right now, I do n't know which shares you have, so it depends from share to share. There is a thumb rule that if any market falls by 50-60% from the top, whichever index may have fallen by 15%, mid-day it is now at 60, 60, 50%, 70%, here if you feel that its earnings will not decrease, its earnings growth is high, earnings will increase, only its value has adjusted, its high P or its phoria has adjusted, such shares should be good, this is the thumb rule sir, but this is a very fast answer, it depends script to script, better you take advice from a consultant sir, thank you or Mike please, hello Vijay sir, sir my name is Mel Chausi, not from Geetanjali, no sir, I meet him in London, then you sir, my question was this, recently in an interview you It was said on TV media that the bear market is getting complex and the bull market keeps getting bigger, that is, it keeps getting bigger.
So, on that front, if you could give some fruitful details, then Sir, I felt like this and look, this is my personal thing, whatever I have seen, whatever I have understood from it, I am sharing it with you. You all also know this, I am not very educated, like Shankar Bhai ji, Bharat Sir, you all also know it very well, so what I have understood is that sit down Sir, before 2003, in whatever bull market and bear market there were in the stock market, the bull markets were smaller and the bear markets were bigger.
After 2003, there was a dramatic change, there was a structural change in the bull market and for the first time in my life, as per the history I have read, that the bull market ran for 5 years from 2003 to 2007 or till 8 March or whatever it was, that was a long bull market and such a big crisis came that the crisis of Lehman Bridge will be written in history as golden.
In other words, such a big worldwide crisis occurred in India, within 9 months the bear market ended, that means the top which made the bottom and from there the market revived, it happened in 9 months, even after that you should understand that think about Covid, what can be bigger than Covid, it was the biggest tragedy of the century, that bear market ended within 9 months, so I have understood that this bull market season, this bull market has started getting longer and the bear market has started getting shorter, you should see this bull market also, the data from 2009 to 2014 will tell that this is not a bull market, 2000 people say that it started from 14, but you all will know, or go back and see your data, between 2008 to 14 also there are such shares which have increased 20 times, 30 times, 50 times, which according to technical data it is not called a bull market, in that also the shares have increased 50-50 times, so what I mean to say is that it is big It is a complicated matter, so I think I feel that the world has seen such a big crisis and within nine months the bull and bear markets have changed, hence I feel that bull markets are getting longer and bear markets are getting shorter.
This market which had made a top, it made a top in September, on September 21, October 23, something like September-October, this market made a top, but even after that some shares kept rising, but till March, April-June, as we have just discussed, there are many mid-caps which had already gone down by 50, 60, 70 by March, they have gone down by March 2022 and now with the markets which are falling, they are supporting them a little bit, so my personal view is that I may be wrong that perhaps this bear market should also end in a month and a half, I do n't know until less, because then it is difficult to speak confidently about everything, I do n't know, right now they talk about recession, they talk about station, everything is new.
Stations come and new things happen here, all this will continue here, I think I do n't put that much thought into it, I structure all my shares in this way that bear markets are short and bull markets are becoming anchor, here mic please doctor Kartik bhai, I also have a song, sometimes DI, sometimes FI, inflation, sometimes oil, sometimes dollar, sometimes rain, this is the game of all these, friend, there are many names of short term, just be careful in trading, my love is a simple earning here, if long term, only long term, my love, what is the matter, what is the matter, good evening sir, my question to you is that you see extra large opportunity in cotton textile manufacturing, going forward in the future, Indian cotton, cotton textile manufacturing, coat sir, it is a little difficult for me to say, what about cotton textile, I have not understood their game till date, I do n't know, I have not done anything in 203 years and sometimes this cotton also kills, I have understood one thing Sir, if you do direct investing, then in any sector which has a lot of moving parts, it is very difficult to catch a small investor like us in it, in which there are a lot of moving parts, like cotton textile or understand this is our metal sector, now in steel sometimes iron hits, sometimes coking coal hits, sometimes China hits, sometimes Brazil hits, sometimes whoever comes and hits them, similarly, there is cotton tax channel, sometimes sir, I don't know, sometimes European quota, sometimes Vietnam, Thailand, China, sometimes cotton prices are currently at an all-time high, so it is difficult for me to talk about them, sir, I had made an investment in small Ambika cotton, if you may talk about it, if you are talking about it, then after taking it, it gave me a very good return, it is 40-50% below the price for me, so by saying this, right now I lost so much money, it was fun, I am enjoying it right now, sir, I am in the internet sector, I do n't have any idea about it, cut the text in which there are many moving parts, Sir, there are many simple theories of not doing it in the stock market.
Good evening Sir, I want to ask one question, what is your biggest mistake, that is, not company wise, but investing mistake, what is that mistake that you keep in mind every time that I should not make, what is that in selecting the company and the second thing is how much stop loss do you put, like I have incurred this much loss, even if the company is very good, but I should withdraw this much from here and invest it in another company, till where can you admit, 15, 20, 50, 40, see sir, I believe this and I do this, I never put stop loss in investment because it is possible that my quantity may be more, for this I think the theory of stop loss should be in trading and not in investment, many people, many of my friends who manage funds, they say that when it falls to 20 or 30, I sell, so I say that when you sell, then I am there to buy.
I am coming sir, how do you place a stop loss in investment, I don't understand this mathematics, I should place a stop loss in trading, this is the first thing, what was your first question, I forgot yours, like investing mistake, investing mistake, mistake while selecting a company, if you have made any mistake in the past, like a mistake, yes why do you rectify it, hosting mistake, investing mistake, mistakes keep happening, friend, I do n't mean a mistake, a mistake is one from which you don't learn anything because you have to pay money here regularly, so in my opinion, we keep learning mistakes, we keep refining ourselves, okay, that is, when I was born, I used to consider myself Rajesh Karan, then I started considering myself Akshay Kumar, now I start considering myself Ranbir Singh, so I am grooming myself, my people automatically, so your mistake is an ongoing process, every person makes different mistakes, sir You have to understand your mistake yourself, you have to write it down, you should understand it and write it down yourself that I made this mistake and I am not giving it further, if I can answer this question here then yes yes perfect we can have one last question According to you, for a middle class investor, what percentage should be the ideal asset allocation, according to you, what should be the investment theory, what should be the right allocation, should the asset allocation be like this, sir, you should take your own risk, see sir, I have a quote, money is not earned with money in the stock market, people who think that money is earned with money in the stock market are wrong, money is needed, you need capital, but your mental capacity is more important than your financial capacity, I have seen people here that people can earn 500 crores from 5 lakhs, and I have also seen people with 500 crores failing here, it means with money Never try to earn, so the reason for this is that sir, your mental capacity, people are not able to understand their own mental capacity, if I go to the gym and lift a 50 kg dumbbell, if you lift a 50 kg dumbbell after seeing me, then it is possible that it may not suit you, you have to understand that yes, I will start with 15 kg today and gradually I will increase 15 kg to 20, 20 to 25, then I can lift 150 kg also, people do not do this, they try to copy people, that if he bought 5 lakh shares, then I will also buy 5 lakh shares, so they will buy 5 lakh shares, they will buy penny stock shares because they want quantity, that I have 5 lakh shares of a company in my demat, so this means this asset allocation, you have to understand yourself sir, till what extent your mind can bear that weight, till the time you are able to sleep at night, till you are not fighting with your wife, not slapping the children if there is a loss Till then you are going in the right direction but the moment your mind changes there, your behaviour changes after buying shares, it means you have bought more shares than your capacity, then asset allocation is directly related to your risk taking capacity and only that money should be invested in the share market which you do not need for at least two-three years.
If you invest thinking that should I invest today or I will take the money after three months or six months, then you are doing wrong. You have to keep the money here only for the long term, if you invest that money thinking that you do not need the money, then you will automatically get the answer of your asset allocation that I do not need this much money for 5 years, I allocate this much money asset. You will get this answer for equity from there sir
Comments 0