저자: Daniel · 외국인
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팔란티어는 AI 플랫폼 수요로 매출 성장률이 13%에서 30%대로 가속하고 영업이익도 개선됐지만, 시가총액 1500억달러·매출 대비 50배 이상의 밸류에이션은 과열로 판단. 희석 주식수를 반영하면 성장률은 약 23% 수준. 25~35% 성장과 마진 2배 확대를 가정해도 5년 후 40배 PER 기준 약 15% 손실 가능성을 제시하며 추격 매수는 비추천.
다듬은 글
Alex karp the founder of paler sure knows how to get his investors excited on the most recent call he talked about how this is still only the beginning a juggernaut is emerging this is the software century and we intend to take the entire Market the world is in the midst of a us-driven AI Revolution that is reshaping Industries and economies and we are at the center of it perhaps a touch of hyperbole here but there is a lot of Truth in terms of the AI Revolution and how paler pltr stock is trying to leverage this revolution to enable companies to deliver services and it better faster cheaper all around acceleration and Revolution so there's a lot of excitement going on with paler in this video we're going to talk about their latest results what Alex karp and palente what they're up to my thoughts on the valuation because the stock clearly has done quite well and where can paler go in the years ahead my quick jump to the conclusion takeaway is that a lot of investors have chased pal at this point and I think you are better served to be cautious versus looking to chase I would not advise that you chase let's Dive Right into understanding what's going on with paler my name is Daniel you're watching unrivaled investing looking at paler yes this is what makes investors Go Bananas is they see Revenue Accelerate from 133% growth to 17% growth all the way up to 30% growth in the most recent quarter investors generally when you're seeing a business a sizable business paler is $150 billion market cap right now generally you don't see acceleration in Revenue growth usually you see like hey this is the growth it's 30% this year then it's 25 and then it slows down to see that sort of acceleration going from 13 to 30% means there's something new going on with the business that's reinvigorating their growth there's something special here what's special as you sort of Peel back the layers is their commercial business is just going bananas driven by the AI platform Revolution you see 54% commercial Revenue growth 77% growth in the number of customers and so just all around the AI Revolution is not only in their historical government business but now it's really impacting us commercial businesses us Enterprises and you can see it across a lot of different customer referrals and quotes talking about how it's being implemented and it's saving time it's saving tens of millions of dollars you know one example they talk about how the AI platform has helped reduce reduce the length of stay in the hospital by 15% for patients with sepsis that's a big deal because you're talking about the cost not only to the hospital but also to the patients that are being hospitalized so this is talking about overall a huge Improvement leveraging AI this is a big deal and this translates into a huge acceleration in Revenue growth when when customers and businesses can say wow this is a big deal we can leverage our data leverage a second pair of eyes that scans all of it using AI to come to these conclusions come to you know better better products better Services better processes and so what was an initial boot camp for a bottled water manufacturer or an agricultural software provider where they see palente AI Solutions less than a couple months later you're talking about 50 days later this company signing a seven figure deal for this agricultural software provider less than two months later signning a seven figure deal this is what's driving the acceleration in the business is this AI Revolution where businesses are saying we need this to operate this is critical and keep in mind this is not just us commercial businesses the US government is still a bigger piece of their revenue that said over time it wouldn't surprise me if commercial becomes the Lion Share but this is still a key part of their business and they're still winning contracts for their AI machine learning Solutions across the US military Western alliances as well this growth is translating into improved profitability you can see how their operating income has gone from around 40 million just a few quarters ago to over a 100 million this is what investors like to see top this off with getting admitted to the S&P 500 so now you start having the index inclusion you have forced buyers that if you buy the ETF passive flows you're going to be buying Palante your stock as well since then you also have one of the board members of paler and and this this tweet was subsequently deleted I think he even deleted his whole Pro profile maybe you're so ashamed about it he tweeted we are moving paler to NASDAQ because it'll Force billions in ETF buyer buying and deliver tendies to our retail investors I think he's talking about profits by tendies players hate be player haters player haters he should have at least said like player haters player haters be aware that we've been hated for decades plural everything we do is to reward and support our Retail Diamond hands following so the retailers that's that's who we really trying to reward it's not himself uh you know who just sold $800,000 worth it's certainly not Alex caroo just this past month sold a billion dollars worth of paler stock those those aren't the people that are getting the rewards it's not Peter teal selling you know over a billion dollars uh you know in the last couple of months these aren't the people getting the rewards we're we're doing it for Diamond hands baby Diamond hands that's that's what we're doing it for looking at the stock prices past year up around two 100% over 200% and so I think it is important to reflect where does paler stock go from here I think it's important to you know bring some reality to this conversation you know gravity still applies and as always this is not Financial advice also last week Matthew a premium member of the unrivaled investing Community shared the following Netflix Spotify and unrivaled are the only subscriptions I'll never cancel an incredible value that's a direct quote Richard also last week commented he said one of my investments one of my best investments when I started the subscription he's talking about unrivaled investing by the way the prices for unrivaled investing are going up at the end of this month so now is the time to lock in the favorable rates looking at palen here you're having a stock that now trades back effectively where it was trading prior at the peak of the valuations prior bubble Peak around 50 times sales you can see it's trading north of 50 times sales currently that is incredible that is a a lot of hopium a lot of excitement for that investors are giving palente here at this point some of it's Justified some of it's you know investors looking at you know the growth the you know the how they're talking us commercial revenue is you know expecting 50% growth rate talking about 1 billion of adjusted free cash flow for 2024 you know so investors like to see this the problem is that you're talking at $61 a share around $150 billion market cap so you're talking 150 times free cash flow now you might say okay there's lot more growth coming maybe margins will approve a lot in the years ahead the challenge is that even that growth rate oh yeah yeah yeah 30% growth everyone's o oo it's accelerated from 133% to 30% I mean maybe it'll be 35% hold your horses hold your horses for a second because it's important to actually look at what's going on here I think there's a lot of hopium and excitement you need to you need to fact check yourself check yourself before you wreck yourself may maybe the the board one of the board of directors would tweet something like that because sales growth if you factor in the share count you can see this at AI ticker chat this is the diluted share count quarter year-over-year it's still growing at a pretty sizable clip and they've talked about how this will moderate over time the most recent quarter is just shy of 6% year over your growth you need to factor in that share count growth because when you do sales growth drops from 30% to 23% when you consider that so not quite as enticing still I think there's a lot of Promise a lot of excitement that investors should be mindful of but let's factor in this reality let's assume 25 to 30% growth in the years ahead and that's on a per share basis that's faster than where they're currently growing currently growing closer to 23% let's say 25 to 30% 30% being sort of The Upside let's assume 25 to 35% profit margins in the years ahead that's they're not there yet they're at closer to 15% so a more than doubling of their profit margins let's just look at the High scenario let's just look at this bull scenario let's assume 30% so significantly faster than where they currently are let's assume margins more than double where they currently are and let's assume a 40 times earnings multiple 5 years from now in that case you're underwater you've lost money by roughly 15% over the next 5 years this is hypothetical valuation framework stock price go way higher way lower it depends on sentiment it depends on exogenous factors it depends on you know what do you know what what do Wall Street what is what what what's the sentiment what do investors what type of multiples do they want to assign also the execution of the business does management deliver I look at this and think wow in this High scenario you're still underwater over the next five years if you get anything more conservative which by the way they're not near this low scenario right now they're they're at 15% versus 25 and they're at 23% versus 25 so you know I'd say they they need to get better in order to justify this low scenario this low scenario gets to more than 50% loss so I I think it's super important for investors to be mindful that long-term three things drive your returns it's the fundamentals of the business that's number one number two it's the cash flow that can get returned to you as a shareholder they're generating around a billion dollars a year in free cash flow a lot of that stock-based compensation let's say it all gets returned to you at a $150 billion market cap even assume you know continues to sell off you're still talking about less than 1% that can go to you so then the third Factor so we talked about fundamentals we talked about the cash flow that can go to you third factor is valuation and I think investors have gone ahead of themselves here so I would not Chase paler stock because I think valuation could be a significant hit a a significant headwind for shareholders over the next five years as they go wait a second I I I thought that screen said 50 times earnings it's 50 times sales oh my goodness that's bananas wouldn't surprise me if you have that sort of development over the next five years may maybe not quite like that but I think you get the picture it this this I frankly there are just much better plays out there you know there are much better plays where you can say hey here's a company growing at x% even a comparable growth rate just trading at a fraction of what you see with paler so the better plays out there and I hope this video has been helpful for you if so please make a point of hitting that Thumbs Up Hit That subscribe button thanks so much for tuning in to unrivaled investing
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