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슈퍼투자자 13F(3분기 기준) 포트폴리오를 분석하는 영상. 버핏의 버크셔는 현금 3천억 달러 이상을 보유하며 Domino's 소량 매수, 애플·BofA 축소 언급. 도미노피자는 프랜차이즈·공급망 모델로 안정적 현금흐름이 강점이나 부채가 많고 주가 상승여력은 제한적이라고 평가. 브룩필드는 부동산 장부가치 대비 현금흐름이 낮아 보수적이지 않다며 보유 중단. 드러켄밀러의 신규 대형 매수 NTRA(유전자진단)는 반복매출 사업으로 관심 있다고 언급. 마이클 버리의 알리바바·JD 확대 및 풋옵션 헤지, Shift4·Molina 언급. 결론적으로 특정 종목 단기 방향 예측은 없고 장기 관점의 분석 위주.
다듬은 글
yesterday I did a video on deep value investors monish PAB and Prem wat talking about very interesting commodity bets that they were making potentially seeing a lot of deep value in various different commodity companies since then you have various super investors also reporting their third quarter uh Investment Portfolio updates including Warren buffets burshire hathway Bill Amman Michael bur from The Big Short Fame and Stan dren Miller 30% for 30 years not a single down year Stanley dren Miller so you're talking about the SE are the great investors uh the greatest of all times the goats uh the challenge is that the data is as of September 30th so ideally you're looking for more Buy and Hold type of investors so that way the data is more of a signal versus noise that said there is some interesting sort of golden nuggets I think that can be revealed by looking at their portfolio holding so let's talk about that now if this is your first time tuning et's go right into Warren Buffett's Burkshire hathway I previously did a video on how he's holding record cash if you're interested in learning how to Value Burkshire hathway that prior video does go sort of through it walking through how I think about the valuation broadly I like it holding over $300 billion in cash largely from selling over $ 100 billion do worth of Apple stock this past year you know going back to the screen you're not really seeing a lot of purchases here reducing Bank of America reducing you know Apple you did have some Teensy weeny purchases is with hio dominoes and pool of which Domino's was the bigger purchase I suspect this is from his lieutenants Todd Colmes and Ted wesler Overall less than a percentage of the total portfolio so what's the sort of thesis for dominoes you're talking about the number one pizza company in the world it's really a franchise model and there's a lot you can learn in 10 seconds or less just by looking at the income statement so you can see here wait a second this isn't really a pizza company it's really a franchise company where it's benefiting from you know yes it is a pizza company but it's it's really benefiting from the franchise model you can see the biggest Revenue line item is supply chain that's not what you would expect from a pizza companies you know from a pizza company you'd expect to see hey how many pizzas did you sell what's the volume of the pizza what's the price of the pizza no this is about the ingredients the equipment that they're selling to the franchise owners that own the the Domino's franchises around the world both domestically and internationally you can see that Us company-owned store revenue is actually just a small fraction of their total revenue you can see it's under 10% of their sales a lot of it comes from the that supply chain a lot from the royalties and fees I.E the revenue off the top from the franchise you know sales so they get a you know percentage couple percentage straight off the top so that pure profit a great business model uh you can also see the international royalties and fees and they're taking they do get these uh franchise advertising fees but then they take it and they spend it straight onto you know spreading the words that way people know about the Domino's Pizza that said they do have a lot of debt I think somewhere between four and five times that's a little bit more more than I'm usually comfortable with so a sizable interest expense of 120 million plus so far this year you can also see that they've been using their free cash flow to buyb stock going you know a couple percent each year reducing the share count so this is the business model steady Pizza growth steady opening up of new stores you know you get some inflation benefit as well and then you know buy back shares and so that type of business model it's very easy you know when you understand that there's only really three variables that drive a stock over time it's the fundamentals it's the change in valuation and it's the cash flow to shareholders so when you're saying okay the cash flow to shareholders is let's say 3 4% a year then the underlying growth of the business is maybe 5 six 7% a year now you're talking about a 10 maybe low teens type of growth for this business over time so that's you know one way to think about it I go to AI ticker chat to get a quick review of you know how would how would AI think about the potential returns for dominoes in the years ahead and it's respectively saying yeah maybe 100% upside over time assuming a little bit of a premium multiple 34 times that does come from the fact that this a very stable business and you know sort of consistent growth a lot of free cash flow a lot of profitability and so you know I that that sort of upside doesn't really scream out to me as deeply compelling but you know I can understand why why some you know value investors would would would like it looking at Bill Amman recently his big new ad was in Brookfield Corporation BN I've previously did a video on Brookfield and Brookfield Asset Management he also increased his position in Nike also did a video on that I didn't like that Nike has been losing market share to various new you know startups that are clearly growing much faster so that does turn me off of Nike Brookfield is an interesting one I've owned it in the past I don't own it now the main reason why is when the the core thesis with with Brookfield is you're like oh my goodness this this asset manager it's so great and it has a great dividend and you know clearly management has articulated this fantastic growth that they're going to have in the years ahead and how management thinks they're deeply undervalued and I get all that but there is one sort of yellow flag red flag that just bothers me and so I I it's not something that I want to think about on a daily basis so I said you know what it's just not right for my journey which is that part of the Brookfield corporation uh they say look look at this huge portfolio of properties and we're known for real estate investment and how smart we are with it and we have $1 15 billion of property that's in our core property book another 8.4 billion in transitional and development so that's still you know sort of figuring it out so roughly let's say $25 billion the challenge is that the annualized cash flow let's just look at the core so not even you know transitional suggests it can improve a lot but at The Core Business you're sort of saying this is presumably closer to a stable free cash flow profile you're saying half a billion dollars in annualized free cash flow versus a $15 billion mark on their property book so that implies a sub 4% yield you know 3 point something per yield that's a cap rate for their property and I just don't quite get why they're marketing it as such you know saying hey our real estate portfolio which has a lot of debt on top of it should be marked at you know sub 4% when US Treasury yields are yielding closer to four and a half% you know so that sort of that disconnect between where Market rates are are versus where they're marking their book does make me think uh it just it doesn't make me comfortable and it's not something that you know I I don't think it's a particularly conservative uh way of accounting I think in a conservative way of accounting would be to say hey what what's what's the appropriate Mark if we were to assume that this is a 6 7% yield type of environment and there are you know businesses that make it very clear hey this is a conservative way of doing business um you know one example is with an insurance company where they say hey each year we're going to assume our losses are this and then each year you end up saying you know what the prior year assumptions of our losses didn't turn out to be as bad as we thought and so it's resulting in a favorable development and you have years and years of favorable developments that's an example of conservative underwriting and conservative practices what I'm seeing with Brookfield isn't exactly conservative and so it does make me a little uncomfortable and so that's why it's no longer part of my investment Journey looking at Stanley dren Miller 30% for 30 years not a single down year I mean this is just he's I I don't know of any other invest that's that's as good as he is and so recently he made this sizable bet in NTR stock I'm not even familiar with what they do this was an 80% change this is now uh his top position so I want to look into that now he does trade around things a bit more looking at NT so this is a tera this is a biotech and so automatically I have a little bit of a gager flex biotech but you quickly realize it's not like um a drug development company with you know a hit or miss sort of business model it's about genetic testing and diagnostic so this means you know easily recurring Revenue talking about their Panorama test which is a non-invasive prenatal test and they you know have they also have tests to understand your various different genetic risks and whether or not you'll pass it on to your kids or testing for potential uh tumors or monitoring for cancer recurrence so this is interesting because this is I could easily see this as a recurring Revenue type of business versus hey we're just going to mark up a drug thousand of perent on a very limited audience so this strikes me as interesting and keep in mind dren Miller you know is a philanthropist has donated hundreds of millions of dollars to various different you know causes one of which is the memorial slone ketering you know which focuses on oncology cancer so he knows what's working what's not working so he does have this sort of Inside Edge I'd say natara is definitely one worth following up on because you know you could see this track record grow the quarterly volumes of their tests going from 200,000 000 just a few years ago to 776 th000 this suggests you know you're doing something special here so I I frankly I need to learn more about this business and seeing dren Miller buying it gets my interest what about Michael bur any sort of new buys from the famous big short investor first in full disclosure this is not Financial advice Also earlier this week Michael E or excuse me Matthew e he said worth every penny Netflix Spotify and unrivaled are the only subscriptions I'll never cancel an incredible value this also follows Richard M also commented this week this is a direct quote one of my best investments when I started the subscription he's talking about unrivaled investing by the way rates for unrivaled are going up at the end of this month so now is the time to lock in the favorable pricing for unrivaled looking at Michael bur's Holdings a lot of people talking about his stake in Alibaba and JD looks like he increased it quite a bit with JD increasing by 100% you know this is sizable part of his portfolio 21 million 20 million broadly it's worth understanding that michaelb probably has a net worth that's multiples of this so you know you're either he's either sitting in on cash or it's International Investments that you're just not seeing so it is worth understanding that 16% is not in Baba it's likely a smaller fraction but it's 16% of his us portfolio that you can see you know as SEC requirements doesn't force him to file his International Holdings or all of his cash it's just showing hey what what do you hold right now in terms of US Stocks but it is interesting that he's hedging his bets he also bought sizable amount of puts that sort of offset these positions in JD and Baba maybe suspecting hey I I I think they're dirt cheap but there's also a chance that they go to zero because it's a Chinese you know situation and there's inherent risks there so that's that is important to reflect on that he's hedging his bets uh maybe not surprising given michaelb you know after he often calling out the sky is falling type of developments and I'm sure you know he's he's right periodically I mean it is important to call that out from from time to time you know he he gets it right that said look I I don't want to make fun of Michael bur I personally I've done very well aligning myself with some of his stock picks in the past where I personally think he's one of the greatest analysts out there because he has a nose for finding deep value stocks and it this is an example where his largest US company is shift for payments that's actually a stock that I called out to my unrivaled investing subscribers a couple of months ago before michaelb even disclosed it uh so it came out as a pleasant surprise for me so in full disclosure I own Shi four payments you talk about a Payment Processing Company that's just disrupting the payment space rapidly outgrowing some of its competitors has a Founder you know type of mentality Founders largest investor so that it it easily meets my personal checklist I'm going to talk more about it with my community at unraveled investing we'll probably write about their latest earnings in an upcoming letter and so you know I'll skip shift four just because you know brief overview just now but Molina Healthcare you know this is also situation that he was increasing uh during the third quarter so what is Molina Healthcare that they're focusing on the government sponsored Health Care programs in particular Focus Medicaid uh over 5 million members across 20 different states so this is health insurance Marketplace so you're talking about health insurance Medicaid um so generally the the loow income brackets uh for given that it's Medicaid and looking at the historic free cash flow you're talking about you know a business that's doing around somewhere between let's say1 and2 billion dollar a year you can see a few years ago is over $2 billion recently it's been bouncing around closer to Let's say1 a.
half billion dollar of free cash flow and and looking at the market cap it's around 15 16 17 billion do so you can quickly see why this would get Michael bur excited which is that hey you know if you can get a business for $16 billion in terms of market cap and it's generating two billion in free cash flow well now you're talking about you know an eight times sort of multiple so that once again you know Michael bre his deep value no sniffing out you know these these types of situations that are trading at very interesting or compelling you know rock bottom evaluation so I I find it to be very interesting personally I I'm less inclined to go the path of looking at Malina just because when you have the heavily government controlled or subsidized or prices are driven by the government you know you you're you're sort of at the behest you're at the control of what does the government what can the government Finance Long Term and what are the policies that they have long term so I'd rather find things that are more Market forces oriented so overall I hope this video talk you about you know what some of the super investors have been up to you're talking about Michael bur Warren Buffett Bill lman uh Stanley dren Miller you I think there's a lot of interesting ideas here I think you can balance it out with some of the aggressive ideas NATA from Stanley dren Miller with the more conservative portfolio orientation with you know with Warren Buffett sitting on $300 billion in cash as interest rates move higher he's in a great position because you can have a dynamic where if interest rates move high enough everything all asset price will could reset if that were to happen and then by the way he's getting a nicer yield on his cash I personally keep my cash at interactive brokers you can see the link below and so you know Warren Buffett would get that nicer yield on that cash getting a higher income and then by the way you get this reset and asset prices he can then redeploy it at much lower valuation so I you know that is one type of scenario the other scenario is you're finding you know the Stanley druen Millers of the world you know turning over rocks finding these hypergrowth businesses or you have the Michael bur say saying hey what's the stock that's trading at 5 10 you know maybe 12 times free cash flow where it's very obvious it's either stable or going to be growing over time and a lot of that cash flow can go to you as a shareholder because the math is fairly simple if you're penciling out something that's very let's say flat at 10 times free cash flow well if they can just return that free cash flow to you that's 10% a year before any change in valuation before any sort of impact and sort of growth so hey if you can find those things at you know 10 times fre cash flow that might be intriguing if you can find something at 15 times free cash flow but growing 15% that's a lot more interesting at least for me personally on my own investment Journey I'd rather you know pay up a little bit but get that growth I hope this video has been helpful for you talking about the super investors and what they're finding interesting thanks so much for tuning in to unrivaled investing
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