저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
케디아는 장기적인 성공을 이끄는 것은 지식이라고 주장하며, 강세장은 과신에 빠진 '천재'들을 만들어내고 이들이 결국 돈을 잃게 된다고 말합니다. 따라서 투자자는 겸손을 유지하고 시장에 인내심을 갖고 투자해야 한다고 강조합니다. 그는 기술적 분석은 사용하지 않는다고 밝히며, SMILE 프레임워크(Small size, Medium experience of management, Large aspiration, Extra-large market potential)에 따라 중소형주를 선호하고 주식을 15~25년간 보유한다고 합니다. 또한 외국인 투자자(FII)의 매도에 대해서는 크게 우려하지 않는다고 말합니다. 그에 따르면 FII는 3년간 약 500억 달러를 매도했지만, 이는 약 8,000~9,000억 달러 규모의 보유 물량에 비하면 적은 수준입니다. 반면 국내 뮤추얼펀드로 유입되는 자금(운용자산 70~75 lakh crore)은 늘어나고 있다고 설명합니다. 섹터 측면에서는 인프라와 항공을 유망 성장 산업(sunrise sector)으로 보고 선호하며, AI 순수 기업(pure-play)보다는 AI를 활용하는 기업에 투자하는 것이 좋다고 제안합니다.
다듬은 글
But to identify that stock is variant, you need to have a lot of knowledge [sound of clearing throat]. For this I have written another analogy of yours which I feel that the knowledge that you have is your luck. Whatever you know, whatever you understand, decides your destiny. They become your destiny through that.
Ok? So I wrote an analogy for that. I will read it out to you. Then We Will Take Q&A We Will Have Q&A Sessions Knowledge Fuels Practice and Practice Builds Experience and Experience Teaches Lessons and Lessons Shape Decisions and Decisions Drive Actions and Actions Deliver Results and Results Create Luck.
So ultimately the knowledge, as I told you, whatever you know, it directly decides in which direction your destiny is going to go in life. So you should know that luck is more important than money. You can lose money even after having it. But you cannot lose what you have learned. You should keep sharpening it.
So that's all I have to say for today. One last one, let me just tell you one. I have written another analogy that bull market creates stupid investors and stupid investors create bear market and bear market creates smart investors and smart investors create bull market and again bull market creates stupid investors in last three years and four years.
Never let this money go into your mind. Always remember, whenever any of my acquaintances, friends or anyone else meets me, they say that I did this. I made so much money. So at that time I tell him that never in your life should you use this word in the stock market that I did this. I never use it like that.
Whatever small place I am standing in today from my zero, I never think like this. It doesn't occur to me that I did that. I tell him to say that this happened to me. The market gave you this opportunity. This opportunity has been given to you by the bull market and this opportunity has been given to you by God.
So never forget this. Remember that everybody is a genius in a bull market. Ok? That's my song too. All geniuses are in a hurry. Everyone considers themselves heroes. The same geniuses who became zero again in the storm of recession. A new life begins in the making and breaking of things. Still, don't lose your senses.
Even if the party has started and secondly my song is such that if no one understands it then why should one fall while growing, why should these 90% people lose money, those who thought carefully should understand this, whatever they took while sitting is what they earned, these 90% people could not sit and sit, open your eyes brother, think a little brother, nine out of 10 people lose money in trading.
So all these things here are just 101 things which you should keep in mind, then I remembered one of my poems from the stock market that I had recited in front of Piyush ji and Fadnavis ji that remain steadfast in every situation. This is the law of time. Auto driver became CM. The tea seller is waist and take up the challenge.
Now it's your turn. So there are so many opportunities in the stock market. There is so much opportunity for everyone. Here the most important thing in the stock market is to stand on the pitch. If you don't want to play, then you just keep playing defense. There is no need to score runs. If it is not the right ball and the right pitch.
Do n't keep in your mind the thought of scoring runs. Stand on an empty pitch and just keep trying to see when a no ball will come and I will hit it for a six or when a loose ball will come and I will hit it for a six. Only when you stand still can you hit fours and sixes. If you go to the pavilion early in the game, your career is over.
Stick to this saying. The biggest guru mantra here is to stay here in the stock market. Stay focused means margin of safety as to how you are investing in which shares. Always keep one thing in mind, even if the market falls by 20%, keep one thing in mind before buying any shares that maybe I will buy it and it will fall by another 20% from here.
will fall by another 25%. The day your mindset is ready for what I am doing, the value here can become clear by 25-30%. This does not mean that a share has become five times more valuable and you should buy it again and give it 25% weight. Maybe that 2/3 of his value could be clear. This can also happen.
So the day you learn to look at your [sound of clearing throat] losses and not lose sleep at night, that day you will become a good investor. That day you will become a strong investor. So keep this thing in mind and good wishes to all the students and all the newcomers and everybody here. Thank you [appreciation] Vijay Sir, I have a question on my friends behalf.
He has a little bit of issue hearing. So I will translate the question answer letter on but here is his question in his own words. Your research on this sector: Do you think it will grow rapidly in the next two decades? And the second question is what do you think will win AI and the renewable sector?
What's your opinion on that? So, let me give you the answer to the first question only that which sectors are going to perform better in the last for 20 years. What I assume if India has really to become a what you call that 40 trillion economy and 30 trillion economy this is what amritkaal is going on inside that if we [sound of clearing throat] have to become a 30 trillion dollar economy then I think that every sector should do well just one sector can't take us to 30 trillion dollar economy and even about 20 trillion dollar economy to reach to that level it has to be an exponential rise in all the sectors of course there would be something some sectors will rise faster, some sectors will grow ah slower.
That could be the case and that will also happen. But one thing I have realised in life is always focus on the sectors where the government has is focused. Wherever the government focuses, you should focus on that sector. I think infrastructure is one sector looking at China, the kind of infrastructure we are having, we are still lagging behind.
So, I think infrastructure is one sector which is going to do well. Like this there are so many other sectors also one like airlines sector which I feel that airlines is also a sunrise sector there is a court of mind that stay invested in a sunrise sector at any cost and stay out of a sunset in a sector at any cost.
So I think infrastructure and I think could be like this airlines and similarly their host of sectors. But suppose if you can't understand if you can't find out which sectors are going to do well. The best way to remain invested in this market is to invest through mutual funds and I would appeal and I will request all these students, new comers, they should start their career by investing into mutual funds only, don't try to be adventurous and don't invest directly into this market because this market is very easy, stock market is a place to make easiest money in the hardest way, so first learn the trick, learn the trick of the edge, you should understand its little integrity, and after that you should start investing, now coming to your second question, that is AI, and all I don't know, I am, I don't get any AI company, especially only AI company, so one thing I have realized that I forgot about the AI, find out the company which is using AI, that is more important, I will give you one, ah, one data, I can give you, you know the [nasal sound] biggest rise of these coke companies Pepsi and Coke started happening after the invention of the refrigerator when the refrigerator was invented.
The biggest beneficiary of that invention was actually a take by Pepsi and Coke. Because today you see thousands of refrigerator manufacturing companies in India. There is no monopoly of one company. If I tell you which one company, every region, every country has different 10 seats of manufacturers in refrigerators.
Every country but Coke and Pepsi, there is no alternative to it till date in the entire world. Because of the refrigerator. Same thing is going to happen into AI also. So the company which is using AI efficiently and innovate innovatively will be the beneficiary of this. But I think today if you ask me I don't have any true story in my mind.
So it will take some time but you have to be always on the proud. Hello Hello Sir Good Afternoon So Sir Vijay Kedia The AS Investor So what is your investment strategy you prefer in such a highly volatile market to find multibagger stocks because your portfolio consist of those stocks which are small cap, mid cap and which has given an absolutely impossible returns can we have like list.
So what is your investment strategy considering both fundamental and technical? How do you see in your way that this company has a potential to rise in the upcoming years? I would like to have your opinion, sir. So, let me tell you, I don't follow any technicalities so far as investments are a concern.
I don't apply ah technicals in my investments. Of course, I understand little bit of technicalities, may be alphabets level, ah but and I don't want to learn more also. Because I am a long term investor. I don't sell my shares for 15 years, 20 years and may be some shares I am holding for 25 years also.
The strategy very simple strategy I am applying in the stock market and that is smile that is an ah ah ah my analogy smile as he stands for small in size. So I always invest in small caps and mid caps. And small and mid caps could be the smallest and could be the small company in that particular sector.
So this is what S stands for and M stands for medium in experience. I usually invest in the company where the management has an experience of 15-20 years. I generally I usually don't invest in new companies and all where the promoter is very new. So the idea behind this is the promoter must have seen or the management team must have seen at least 15 in their journey offer and in 15-20 years they must have seen at least four-five big rises and falls.
In the economy in the country and in their own you know products and on their company. So they must have learned the lesson from that and that is MI stands for medium and L stands for large in aspiration. So I usually buy in the company where management if management does not have any aspiration to become like from a regional company to national company I am from national to that fire in the belly that okay today I am just a 5000 crore company and may be in 10 years I want to become a 50000 crore company if management will not become ah means for example a lakhpati to crorepati then we investors which are buying just a fraction of the entire equity will not become from zero to lakhpati.
So for that, the pie has to become pie has to be very big. So that is why aspiration is the only thing which can really make the company big. So that's all that Aspiration is large in that Aspiration is variant and last e stands for extra large market potential. Even if a company wants to become from Rs 5000 crore to Rs 10,000 crore, Rs 15000 crore in the next five to ten years.
But if the market size is not that big. If the market size is not 50, it is not growing in the same fashion, if the market size is not 50,000 crores, then the company cannot become that big. So, all this, this very simple formula, this is what I am applying in almost all my investments. He does it since he started showing money in India, 3%, no no, say sorry, you have not put it on my sore hand [laughs] I should be sorry for you brother, no no, I am joking brother, first of all you should understand that the selling of FI that is happening, you are seeing it now, but FI has been selling for the last 3 years brother, this selling of FI is not new, at least FI goods worth $50 billion must have been sold here.
Ok? And what happened to the market in 3 years? You see this. Right now, the market has started and they have sold goods worth Rs 1 lakh crore within October. Sold in September or October. This has just come and by then the market has already become a little weak. After saying this, people started talking more about FIIs.
We have faced FI for 3 years. First of all, you should understand this. So where has the market reached in 3 years brother? Within 3 years, many shares increased 10 times, 20 times, 30 times in three years, four years after Covid. So after saying this, the FI slowly started to end. Today the corpus of mutual fund has become 70-75 lakh crore, sir, where was this corpus of mutual fund of 70-75 lakh crore, 3 years ago, ₹000 crore is coming every month, it is equal to the 5000 crore that used to come 4 years ago or 7000 crore, I said this in a TV interview, they said that 2000-17000 crore has come this month, they said 17000 crore, you are talking about a month, 17000 crore will come weekly and there will come a time when 17000 crore will come daily in India, whom are you talking about here, which country are you talking about?
When people get into the minds of this, then till now the shares were neglected because the people of the older generation worked with the shares without thinking and they wasted money in the share market. So in this sense, the new generation is coming and they are also starting in the same way, whatever they are doing within FAO FNO, their beginning is also like this.
But they wo n't recover until they fall. So what I meant to say was that I told you about this song earlier also. I wrote this song 2 years ago. I wrote this song when FI was selling. He has been selling it for the last 3 years. So understand one more thing about them, brother, the position of FI is 800-900 billion dollars in India.
So if they sold 50-60 billion dollars, what did they sell in total? If they sold it within 3 years, it is the same thing, sir. So there is no fraction at all, brother. Not even 10%. So 5% understand that they have sold this. Now it is a different matter that what will happen if they come to sell 95% of the father's property ?
Now I don't have an answer to this brother, what will happen? Hey, what will happen if the roof falls? It should not fall, friend. Hey, I'll just move a little away.
Comments 0