저자: Kevin · 외국인
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스태그플레이션 공포는 과장이며 CPI 발표에서 인플레이션이 예상보다 낮게 나오면 연준의 테이퍼링이 11월까지 늦춰져 9~10월 주식 랠리가 기대된다고 주장. 장기적으로 인플레이션은 2023년경 2~2.5%로 수렴할 것으로 보며, 10년물 금리의 최근 반등은 숏커버링에 따른 현상으로 해석. 테크·혁신주(FANG+, AMD, 엔비디아 등) 비중을 80% 이상으로 유지하는 전략을 제시.
다듬은 글
hey everyone kevin here there's been a lot of fear about a stagflation we've heard that tsa check-ins are going down that more airline tickets and travel are getting canceled and rescheduled to the future and hotel room reservations are declining we're starting to see this sort of delta slow down at the same time we are at peak levels of inflation and bond deals are going up but is there a secret truth to what's really going on here that might not be as bad as we expect especially coming up to the cpi data release tuesday at 5 30 am let's talk about this and some opportunities and how i am investing through all this madness folks first today though is 9 11.
and my heart goes out to everyone affected by 9 11 and i hope and pray that we never have such a horrific terrorist attack again let's now folks get into a talk on inflation and stagflation first this is a screenshot from the bloomberg terminal thank you very much to the bloomberg terminal for allowing me to post this here take a look at this this is a shot of news trends for references to the word stagflation through the bloomberg terminal which sort of consolidates old news what's crazy is it skyrocketed just recently within the last few weeks here even though we had a really high inflation over here uh and inflationary readings and fears of high inflation staying were really exploding over here in the february to march time frame in fact you could see that by looking at the 10-year treasury yield right 10-year treasury yield exploded under fear in february and march but we haven't gotten the stagflation fear until just recently the last few weeks and it's worth trying to figure out why would folks think that stagflation is a concern well a lot of it has to do in my opinion with delta it makes sense we're seeing those slowdowns again travel airlines hotels things are slowing down this makes sense that at the same time you would have a slow down because of delta and super high inflation that you might think the economy is starting to stagnate while maintaining high inflation but are these high inflation levels a real concern or is there something that we should specifically be paying attention to that might give us some more clarity for us being on a path to potential normalcy again well let's break that down so cpi data that comes out this tuesday 5 30 a.m california time i will be live streaming that so make sure to subscribe to watch that and if for some reason you're not getting all of the youtube notifications make sure to type into the apple or android app store meet kevin and download the free meet kevin app so that you always get notified every time a video is posted if that's what you want okay so this tuesday we're expecting month-over-month inflation to come in at 0.4 percent and year-over-year inflation to come in at 5.3 percent this is really really high and looking at this on the surface it's like oh my gosh this is crazy like we're at a slowing down market because of delta or economy at the same time as high inflation this is bad well now we've got to look at the details because as usual the devil is in the details things that have led to high inflation over the last few months have been things like wedding dresses i kid you not that's one of the categories used car prices airline tickets and uh lodging well we just we already know that lodging tsa travel airlines these are slowing down so we expect some pressure to be lifted off of these prices and these prices to stabilize because of delta we also know that used car prices have been skyrocketing but according to the manheim index of used car prices values we've actually seen a stabilization of used car prices you can see that right here we previously had been skyrocketing and this is why we had some crazy inflation here starting specifically in february right around here because this was really waiting inflation up up up up up up up up up up up up up up and that's really slow down here now there are two things that could make inflation continue to be bad but this right here so far we should be going into the cpi read the cpi print expecting it to come down because all of these things the travel lodging and used cars slowing down but the two things propping up inflation right now or the potential two things that are going to prop up inflation are wages especially in lower wage industries like local retail or local services it's a danger local service inflation and rents those are the two big things uh that is wages and rents that we're expecting to potentially prop up the cpi print an inflation print and how much of a prop up we get is going to be really really important to this market because everything related to this cpi print is going to give us answers on will the federal reserve begin their taper or not in other words this tuesday if we get a misuninflationary expectations inflation via the cpi comes in lower than expected whether we believe it or not the federal reserve is likely to pause on that taper until november and we hope hope hope to have a beautiful september and october rally in the stock market until the beginning of november doesn't mean we don't have other uncertainties going on we still have a debt ceiling debate we've got a big infrastructure debate all that's happening at the end of this month here in september so there's still going to be a lot plenty of room for uncertainty so to speak plenty of room for the market to go down and fluctuate up and so on but for me i'm hoping the cpi print comes in lower than expected so that way the fed delays their taper we do not get the taper this month we don't get a taper announced until at the earliest in november potentially we kick that can down the road and we start seeing inflation inflect to the downside but could this potentially lead to hyperinflation i don't think so and i'm going to prove to you why and then i'm going to show you a second piece of evidence that has to do with what the bond market is doing which is very very interesting so buckle up for that one by the way while i pull this chart up here if you like my analysis or you find my analysis unique i guarantee you you're going to find my analysis and perspectives in my courses linked down below extremely unique if you want to save money investing in real estate doing property management or rental renovations you want to be an agent and make more money you want to be a youtube content creator or you want to invest in the stock market learn about fundamental analysis ta options whatever check out the programs down below i regularly add content i'm finalizing some new lectures this weekend as well for stocks and psychology of money check out the coupon code link down below you could use that coupon code through september 24th and then the pricing will go up again pricing always goes up about 50 every single time a coupon changes all right folks take a look at this this here is a chart of forecasted inflation in the united states what i think is really neat about this chart and again shout out to the bloomberg terminal love this software what i think is really neat about this chart is it tells us that look we saw this high inflation this has already happened this was in the past we're right about here right now we're at peak inflation right now but because we've been on this recent roller coaster we feel like we're just on this perpetual up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up up of inflation and unless the fed tapers unless the fed slams on the brakes we are going to see hyperinflation but it's worth noting that the baseline forecast for inflation no matter how long this stays up or high or elevated or how fat this this bubble is right here of inflation the forecast is that by 2023 we will be back to a pretty stable inflationary time where inflation is sitting between two and two and a half percent that's symbolized by the solid white line but watch this what if kevin is right and inflation comes in lower than expected well if inflation comes in lower than expected then the dotted line right here might be a potential path that we would take where inflation basically we came hard came fast but then finally inflected down slowed down markets rallied and we were able to cheer that great inflation was indeed transitory okay but kevin's not always right i recognize this i acknowledge when i make my mistakes uh and as much as i still think i'm right about my inflation and i am long on tech and innovation because of this what if inflation comes in high then we'll get this fat red over here and inflation might last longer look at this we could have five percent five point five percent inflation basically lasting into halfway through quarter one twenty twenty two that would be like five percent inflation going to february march of 2022 be crazy right yes in the short term it'd be crazy but look at what the long term always does the long term in all forecasts and all economists and every researcher everybody seems to point to the same thing by 2023 we would expect inflation to be well under 3 percent and continue to converge to that two and a half percent level uh potentially even two percent in some cases but this is a long run expectation so what's important about this is if you are a long-term investor remember inflation is something that is going to be here for a period of time the question now is it going to be here for six more months or two more months at five percent levels uh or or not right that's the big question right now and so some people are looking at the 10-year treasury yield to try to predict what does the market believe and there's actually something very interesting happening in the 10-year treasury yield and this is worth talking about this is a little bit trickier to follow along but i believe you come to my channel to get insights that you're not getting anywhere else and that's why you subscribe to my channel and come back to these videos take a look at this folks when inflation expectations first skyrocketed we saw 10-year treasury yields skyrocket this makes sense if we think there's going to be high inflation then we see 10-year treasury yields go up and at the same time if we think there's going to be high inflation and 10-year treasury yields are going to go up then we're going to expect tech stocks to go down high valuation stocks to go down and things that print money today doing much better that is very well cash flowing companies now doing better maybe even like real estate or whatever uh industrials right anyway what's fascinating here is we've had this crazy uptrend then we've had this slow down trend but look at what's happening over here since about the beginning of august we've actually had another uptrend now why would we have an uptrend well ordinarily we might look at this and say well we're having this uptrend we're because we're expecting inflation to go up that's it the cpi print is going to miss inflation is going to go up that's it inflation's going to keep going back and the bond market is pricing it in again maybe not and this is the mind-blowing part wait kevin if the market is not expecting high inflation especially during this delta surge kind of stagflationary time stagnating time is better uh and maybe inflation expectations will inflict downward why would tenure treasury yields go up it could be because of something known as the shorts covering see when short sellers buy a treasury bonds they're covering their shorts because remember when you short something you sell it you dump it right well what if over the last few months short sellers realized crap inflation is going to be temporary it is going to be transitory now over the last few months they start buying back their treasuries okay so they buy back treasuries they close out their shorts now people who were buying treasury bonds like crazy don't have to buy treasury bonds anymore because they're covered okay so in other words where we saw yields going down right here this down path right here and this excessive sort of fall over here could have actually been treasury short sellers buying treasury bonds back because when people buy a bunch of bonds the yields fall now they don't have to be buyers anymore because they've already covered and now you have less buying pressure in the market and so yields are slowly trickling back up because the short sale covers the people covering their shorts aren't adding to buying pressure anymore and so the yields are slowly going up as treasury yields are slowly falling so in other words this sort of weird transition we've had in the bond market right here at least the research that i've done could actually be a natural indicator that the market is expecting lower inflation and while expecting lower inflation we're seeing this kind of slow trickle up in 10-year treasury yields kind of interesting a little bit of a mind twist and the reason it doesn't perfectly look that way in the chart is because you have to remember that when people buy treasury yields or buy treasury bonds prices go up and yields go down right it's that weird inversion thing and if none of that in the last minute made sense let me just give you a bottom line on this part of the last minute if shorts covered their short seller positions on treasury bonds then we could see exactly this happen where basically the market says yeah inflation's going to inflect down we're not going to short the market anymore let's just get out of this shorting the treasury market expecting inflation is going to slowly inflect down and eventually taper all the way back down like we saw in the forecast chart and we're going to get out of shorting this market that would lead to basically a plummet in yields and then a slow rise in yields which is exactly what's happening here so in other words even though we're seeing this trickle up super bottom line epic bottom line and then we're moving on from this epic bottom line is the slow trickle up could be a good thing for the market could be a good thing for tech and innovation okay now what do we invest in what the heck do we do so my belief has been very consistent i'm a big fan of being heavily exposed to tech and innovation i'm over 80 exposed to tech and innovation my the safest of them obviously fang t those are going to be facebook apple amazon netflix google tesla so there's a double a in there and the t at the end right it's expanding fang a little bit feng t uh then if you want to go out on on the risk curve a little bit you could go to like amd nvidia the chip suppliers these guys have been killing it want to go further down the risk curve we go to things like etsy and face further down the risk curve go to things like a firm lemonade hippo these these are more risky but other opportunities all of these in my opinion are innovative plays going from safest the fang t to least safe most risky potential highest risk highest reward like hippo lemonade a firm right all of these in my opinion are going to do very very well could be wrong but i think they're going to all do very very well in an in a deflationary time where we start getting that inflation inflecting downwards i believe that weaker inflation plays with inflation rotating down are going to be things like retail travel you know our usual recovery place i still think there's room for speculation in in these i think there are opportunities to buy the dip and sort of ride them up and then sell out of them i'm a big fan of this i did a big call option last week on dave buster's that was very profitable uh because of earnings so thank you dave busters for that that was an awesome one but things that you want to keep in mind here are what you want to invest where there is elasticity of demand elasticity of demand is basically am i going to buy a new iphone if it's a thousand dollars or eleven hundred dollars does that extra hundred dollars make a difference as to whether or not i'm going to buy this phone if the answer is no it doesn't make a difference i'm gonna buy it anyway you have more elasticity of demand than if you go on google flights right now and you're like oh flights to uh you know canada are four hundred dollars oh but if they're 500 i don't want to pay for it anymore right that would mean you'd have less elasticity and demand i believe travel has lower elasticity especially during delta whereas tech and tech related services software as a service these i think have very large elasticity of demand people are going to pay for higher prices and or how they're going to pay higher costs that is if we have some inflation that we have to pass on to consumers i think that's the place where people are going to pay it so that's why for me big fan of staying long on tech because eventually we're going to hit that curve of going down how long it lasts remains to be seen but remember folks the curve moves down in the long run and i think that is very very very important to remember so i will see you tuesday morning at 5 30 a.m i hope you subscribe to the channel if you like this kind of perspective always make sure to check out my programs linked down below go to medcamp.com join use that coupon code folks thank you very much for watching no matter what happens this tuesday i'm excited for my place but my options are going to fluctuate based on what happens but that's part of training in the market all right folks thanks so much for watching we'll see you the next one bye you
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