저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 발언을 바탕으로 인플레이션 현황을 분석. 최근 물가 상승은 공급 부족과 수요 변화(코로나)에 기인하며 일시적일 가능성이 크다고 봄. 역사적으로 미국 인플레이션은 전쟁·금본위 이탈·가격통제 같은 인위적 충격 외에는 장기 고착되지 않았다고 주장. 연준 위원들은 완화 정책을 당분간 유지할 것으로 보이며, 10년물 금리가 다시 급등하는지와 인플레이션 기대치가 핵심 신호라고 설명. 본인은 3~5개월간 가격 상승 후 점진적 하락을 전망.
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hey everyone in this video i'm going to talk about what the fed said today and what it has to do with inflation and some research i've been working on okay let's get right into this right after mentioning that coupon code for the amazing programs does expire tonight it is cinco de mayo happy cinco de mayo so check out that program or all of the programs because you can bundle them together and get an even better deal link down below use that coupon code and i'm super excited to have you in the programs all right folks let's get into this so first things first inflation is obviously massively debated right now how we measure inflation is massively debated uh the fact is we've printed a lot of money but the velocity of money has gone down so it makes sense that money is circulating less but it is also a fact that lumber prices hit a record high today uh when they've consistently been hitting record high that uh record highs that copper prices are uh up like crazy we're talking 50 60 wheat prices are up i mean you look around used cars new cars everything is up with the exception of maybe like apparel okay apparel's down big deal but a lot of prices today are up substantially and they're increasing substantially and the fed's argument is obviously that these increases are due to supply shortages and total shifts in demand and expectations all brought on by covin and in some sense it makes sense when you get a pandemic and it totally changes the way we do business and even think about doing business we need less of some things and much more of other things and it totally changes and screws up everything instead of people needing work computers they now need more computers at home which changes chip dynamics when we think oh the pandemic's gonna stop people from buying cars and people are going to be spending less because there's going to be this big long recession and people stop producing chips but then all of a sudden we get the larry cutler v-shaped recovery we start buying chips again really fast and potentially even more than we had before because cryptocurrencies are going to the moon you know it kind of makes you go oh yeah that's definitely going to screw up some supply chains because well that's pretty much exactly what's been happening so what i wanted to do is digest a little bit of what the fed said today but then also try to look at history a little bit uh the easiest way to look at history is kind of just look at what inflation has done over the last 100 years so uh take a look at this right here this is the last 100 years sort of a chart of of inflation here uh this is from tradingeconomics.com they've got a really nice long chart here one of the neat things about this is it really shows us that at the turn of the century we actually had deflation this line right here is sort of a deflationary period of time and that we were really struggling to even see inflation we had uh spikes and bouts of inflation especially after uh world war ii uh we saw this massive dip during the great depression we also saw a really massive peak over here around 1948 49 as we had a recession but what's fascinating is with the exception of this sort of 1948-49 peak and the exception of what happened after 1970 when we left the gold standard we really haven't seen hyper inflation in the united states so for example if we take out the gold standard mess up over here and these wage and price controls that were implemented by nixon if we take that out over here and uh we you know we take even if we leave this spike in over here whatever leave this out remove the gold standard removal here and the nixon error remove that for a moment what we notice is that inflation historically stays pretty dang on average low you know folks like to say oh this is the great moderation right here since the 80s that inflation only recently has had this phenomenon of being low and that lately we're all freaking out and complaining about this this this little line right here this movement up and then maybe that line will go to oh no three percent or maybe three and a half percent for a couple months and maybe it'll maybe it'll stay three or four percent uh i'm not sure if it'll actually go to four percent but maybe maybe we'll stay high for for a few months consistently uh and then then the big question is which way is it gonna go well if history has any guide it tends to vacillate and tends to go up and down but it tends to rotate down after even temporary peaks in fact when we look at any of the peaks of inflation we've had we've never had consistently high inflation we've had very very short-term bouts of high inflation high inflation with elevated inflation over here right i mean these these are potentially years right here where you've got inflation sitting around six seven eight percent but the peaks over ten percent relatively short in duration something that i did find very interesting as well that somewhat relates to the burst in spending that we've had here with uh temporary spending which is very much what we have right now we have temporary let's spend big on a stimulus let's spend big on infrastructure and then ideally stop spending right we get this short-term bout of spending fix what's broken uh and then ideally we stop spending if we keep spending spending it becomes a problem but a period of time in history where i found we had a burst of spending not necessarily something crazy like getting off the gold standard or a war but a period of time where we had a burst in spending and it was a short term it was a temporary boost in spending uh what happened afterwards was sort of a little strategy that i was looking for and so what i found was uh right here it was a in a period of around 1948 49 after that recession after the korean war ended 51 52 we actually saw uh this very very moderate period of inflation over here uh inflation bobbing around short term deflation right here inflation around two three percent dropping to one one and a quarter percent for almost a decade here and really not rising again until 1969 where inflation ran up to about five percent and so we had this really a period this period here of low inflation and uh the question was okay well why why did we have a period of low inflation in the 1950s and the research that i was doing at the time was mostly we had this period of low inflation because of globalization uh better partnerships with the world after war able to develop in other countries or export our goods to other countries or reduce costs by working with other parts of the world technology and technological deflation the start of tvs and radios and things that reduce expenses in our life to make things easier and we really saw this burst of spending followed by a period of of real calm uh so bursts of spending from korean war followed by a period of extreme calm in inflation and it really wasn't until what happened in 69 to 71 when we started having wage price controls where prices were artificially limited uh and when those limits were removed we saw a surge in inflation then we left the gold standard another surge in inflation because these artificial limitations were that were imposed in the late 60s were all of a sudden removed and so we saw this sort of unleashing of this great inflation and really this was the result of a manipulation a manipulation of leaving the gold standard a manipulation of having purposely tried to keep prices down over here in this late 60s era but short of these manipulations when we remove these manipulations we we had a really incredible period of no inflation where we didn't have a war and this war ended the korean war ended so we had the inflation sort of driven by war going away and then we really got to this period of normalcy and inflation which is very much similar to what we've seen for the last 30 to 40 years and so this belief that oh my gosh there's going to be this hyper rampant inflation is a little bit challenged by history that sure is it possible we're going to see some elevated numbers that that go high on this chart four or five percent we see a spike here yeah but history shows it will tend to go back down short of crazy manipulation in in prices like things purposely trying to keep prices down now in an interesting way some might say hey well we have manipulation and the fact that the government is printing but this isn't trying to manipulate by keeping prices down this is just the government's printing money and that's one of the things well the government does very very well we know that uh and so looking at this chart yeah we might say hey well it's all the money printing that's happening that's what's going to cause massive rampant inflation we're going to see one of these spikes again well even if we were to see one of these spikes and we saw you know a 10 15 inflation or even the inflation that we saw in the 70s which was a period of time where the federal reserve was very passive they were very very slow at reacting to inflation we don't expect them to be slow at reacting to actual inflation again or or persist in inflation i should say not actual inflation we expect that the fed has has hopefully learned we wouldn't actually expect these spikes to last long if we had them so so history gives us that bottom line history gives us the bottom line that absent artificial and massive changes like purposefully trying to limit price growth uh and then seeing the balloon pop on that or purposely getting off the gold standard or war short of those things we didn't really see massive inflation even when we've been doing insane money printing from 2010 before the covet pandemic we didn't get massive inflation qe1 qe2 qe3 qe infinity we haven't seen massive inflation it's bizarre it's very very bizarre and so this kind of brings up some of the things that the federal reserve said today and i'm trying to put this all together here and decide okay so what what the heck is actually happening here so the federal reserve today multiple members had a few things to say charles evans for example charles evans he's the chicago bank president of the federal reserve uh something else that's unique about him is he is also a voting member of the federal open market committee which helps set interest rates uh and he said today quote the fed still has quote some ways to go before we reach our dual mandate goals of maximum and inclusive employment and inflation averages two percent for now the policies are likely to hold for some time so usually sometimes it's three to six months aka no taper announcement yeah not even thinking about it but he also goes on to say and this was another step further here he goes on to say i personally think that the achievement of sustainable inflation averaging two percent is a lot harder than people think okay so let's try to register that for a moment the achievement he's saying inflation is an achievement if we can get inflation it's an achievement the achievement of sustainable inflation averaging two percent is a lot harder than people think and he goes on to say and so i'm not in a hurry in any way to have that discussion about pulling back on asset buying it's really weird it's counter-intuitive but when we look at the chart it kind of also makes sense it's been hard to consistently remain at two percent even back in the 1950s and 60s we had a very hard time having persistent inflation in america even back in the world war era we had massive spikes in prices due to war and shortages caused by war guns and butter right but they were short-lived very short-lived periods let's go on to some additional quotes here we have charles evans going on to say that when that there are fears that when the economy reopens and begins to work again that inflation might spiral out of control even as we get through those inflation or those supply shortages he says quote i would not be concerned about inflation moving persistently too high unless we saw quite outsized movements in financial market pricing at the longer maturities or in survey-based measures of inflation expectations okay so that's complicated basically in in plain english what he's saying is yo when you really got to start worrying and this is a nice heads-up for you to actually pay attention to okay but when you start worrying is when the 10-year treasury yield which shot up flattened and is now trending down what he's saying is when you start seeing that skyrocket again that's when you want to be more concerned or when you start seeing people's inflation expectations for 2023 and 4 and 5 come in at 3 4 over and over again that's maybe when we're going to start having problems but we're not seeing those in right now because inflation and this is something that's so weird about inflation so much about inflation has to do with our expectations let me ask you this and this might be a more simple way to think about it because it helped me think about it a lot more is do we actually think that real estate prices are going to go up 15 a year like they did over the last 12 months forever no that'd be insane right i mean like already real estate prices went up 15 percent of people like bubble that's it it's getting ready to burst because prices going up is not very normal it's it's kind of abnormal to see those sorts of growth numbers it's weird it's abnormal to see the growth we saw in the stock market last year and that's why we're having such such pullbacks now in stocks despite amazing and smashing earnings we're having pullbacks in stocks because so much growth has already been priced into one year and it's weird it's kind of like do we think that we're always going to be gay we're always going to have to buy cars at sticker because prices are going up for cars no do we always think that we're going to be able to get a used car for two or three years drive it around and then in a year sell a toyota camry back to the dealership for four thousand dollars more than what we paid you know a year or two later no we don't expect those prices to continue to go up we realize that the prices of housing are high right now because there's no inventory we realize the prices of cars are up right now because there's no inventory we realize the prices of chips are up right now because there's no inventory we realize the price of lumber is up right now because there's a potentially a lack of inventory okay i don't know that much about the the lumber markets and there there are anecdotes of people going oh i see plenty of lumber at the yards no we don't know how many of those are dedicated to contracts or already i should say designated to contracts in that right so it's very interesting kind of makes sense uh when we look at it from that point of view that oh yeah i guess we probably wouldn't really expect year over year persistent inflation over and over and over again fed loretta mester she's part of the cleveland fed she says she expects six to seven percent economic growth over the term of this year and falling unemployment this year uh but she says that her positive baseline outlook depends on appropriate monetary policy which in her view will be basically being very accommodative for quote some time to support the broadening of the recovery this is an interesting argument broadening of the recovery we want to support the broadening of the recovery so we don't just care that stock market's gotten back or that hedge funds are doing well or that tech companies are doing great even though their stock price is not that much going up the companies are doing great they want to see that broaden out they still want to see hotels doing well and restaurants doing well got time to go now uh she also responds uh with uh concern over a jump inflation she does say that she expects to see a notable jump her words notable jump in inflation over the next couple months with an overshoot of the fed's 2 target but she believes that will be temporary and that the fed will remain highly accommodative because that'll be temporary notice so far all these people are very much echoing what jerome powell has said which is a little bit different from what kaplan over at the dallas fed has said that maybe we should taper earlier but everybody else especially the voting members because kaplan's not even a voting member the voting members are like no we're on the right path we're gonna wait we're gonna wait uh boston fed eric rosengren he says that uh the implications in the market that we see right now are that our policy is going to remain accommodative until the labor market consistently can consistently help deliver the fed's two percent inflation goal again we look at that chart it's been a little bit difficult to see two percent inflation so we'll see i think a lot of this is in a weird way going to come down to our expectations of inflation as society and what's crazy is our expectations of inflation in society are actually dictated well not dictated by but they're they show up in they're evidenced by trends in the treasury yield curve this is why every single day we do market open market close you see me talk about the 10-year treasury because when that thing spikes that means the market broadly is like oh we got to be worried about this for inflation purposes lately the market's been digesting data that hasn't even been like mega hot it's just been like okay i mean those are good numbers but they're not like overblown numbers they're not overly hot numbers all right treasury yield's been falling it's weird it's crazy something to pay attention to and i know how counterintuitive it feels that maybe maybe we will go back to normal levels of inflation but that's the way i'm investing right now and i know that might sound crazy but i strongly believe with uh over 70 to 80 conviction that we're gonna have these crazy price increases for the next three to four or five months and then we're slowly going to inflect back to the downside at least for the next two three four years thereafter and who knows maybe some other black swan comes up during that time or after and screws things up but so far i'm not seeing the long-term persistent inflation that a lot of uh youtube videos sort of uh fear-monger right now anyway these are just some of the observations that i'm making i'd like to hear from you remember to use that coupon code expiring today and folks we'll see in the next one
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