Michael BURRY, Warren BUFFETT, Ray DALIO : mise à jour portefeuilles des grands investisseurs 2022 🧐

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2022년 3분기 13F 공시를 바탕으로 유명 투자자들의 포트폴리오 변화를 분석한 영상이다. 마이클 버리(Scion)는 과거 대규모 매도 후 최근 소규모 매수를 재개했으나 자산 규모가 작아 확신으로 보기 어렵고, 마케팅 목적일 수 있다고 평가한다. 워런 버핏(버크셔)은 TSMC를 약 40억 달러 신규 매수했으며 평균 매입가는 약 80달러 수준이다. 옥시덴털 페트롤리엄을 약 20억 달러 추가 매수했고, 액티비전 블리자드 매도와 미국 은행주(US Bancorp, BNY멜론) 축소도 언급된다. 브리지워터는 장기간 분산 포트폴리오를 유지하며, 유럽 50 지수 대상 공매도를 6월 중순부터 늘렸다가 8월 중순 대부분 청산했다. 이는 지수 상승 국면에서 청산한 타이밍 실패 사례로 제시된다. 조지 소로스(Rivian) 매수 후 큰 손실, 빌 애크먼 넷플릭스 매도 후 주가 상승, 캐시 우드 ARK 펀드의 대폭 하락 등 유명 투자자들의 타이밍 실패 사례도 소개된다. 결론적으로 유명 투자자의 포트폴리오는 참고만 하고 맹목적으로 따라 사지 말며, 개인 투자자는 장기 보유에 집중해야 한다는 메시지다. 특히 버핏의 장기 보유 방식이 가장 본받을 만하다고 강조한다. 대상 자산 중 개별 목표가나 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 거의 없다. TSMC는 대만 리스크에도 불구하고 버핏이 매수했다는 점이 긍정적 신호로 언급되나 직접적인 방향 예측은 아니다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Hello everyone, so here it is: the Hedgerow 13F forms are out! These are quarterly reports that hedgerows are required to publish, and they allow us to see the movements in their portfolios between June 30th and September 30th. It's important to remember that these forms are released about a month and a half after Q3 2022, so there's a gap between the end of the quarter (and therefore the information we have) and the publication date of the 13F forms.

02. So it doesn't reflect what they're doing at that precise moment, but rather what they did during that period, from June 30th to September 30th. This period shows a slight rise followed by a fall. Therefore, these forms don't tell us whether these famous H1s bought at the peak of this period or at the very bottom.

03. In this video, we'll see, among other things, that Michael Berry has resumed buying stocks, particularly in In the prison environment, we'll also see that Warren Buffett has set his sights on a brand new stock, adding it to his portfolio, and he didn't hold back. He seems to have fallen in love with this new stock.

04. We'll also see what the Bridgewater fund and the Raid Dalio fund have done, and whether they've made some mistakes. We'll also quickly review the movements of hedge funds and other major investors. We'll analyze all of this, and at the end, we'll give our opinion on what to do with all this information.

05. So, let's get started. As you can see, we're on the official website of the Society, and a 13F report looks a bit like this, with some information such as the number of lines and the value of all the lines. Then we have the details of all the stocks that the hedge funds hold. For example, we've taken Bridgewater, which holds 866 shares.

06. But fortunately, there are some great websites that allow you to analyze all of this in more detail and make the data much easier to understand. So, in addition, most of the sites are free. The first site we can recommend if you want to do your own research is EdgeFollow. Then there's DataRoma, then there's 13f.info, which we also found great.

07. And for specific information, there's waywithdom.com. So, that makes four sites in total. Anyway, you'll see how we use them. We personally prefer EdgeFollow and 13f.com. So, we'll start right away with the one everyone's talking about, but who isn't actually the biggest fish: Michael Berry of the Sion fund.

08. Michael Berry, who was of course known for the film "The Big Short" and for also being involved in the subprime mortgage crisis, has finally started buying stocks again. In the last quarter, he only had one stock in his portfolio, and now he's added five more. There's also the Geo stock, which is actually prisons in the United States.

09. We can see he's added a little something to the pot; he's increased his position of... 300% in this company to reach a value of 15 million. Currently in 2nd position, he bought shares in Curay Triple for 10 million dollars. We looked into what Curay Triple was because we didn't know anything about it, and apparently it's a stock in home shopping since they apparently own 14 television channels.

10. They also run e-commerce sites, and as they say, they also include video reseller shopping, e-commerce, and video commerce. In any case, it's better to do your own research if you want to invest in this kind of company, which is completely unknown. In third place, we see that he bought shares in a civic body incorporation, so these are still American prisons.

11. Apparently, Michael Berry likes the prison business in the United States. Then, it's a bit more anecdotal, but we have this fourth line in the aerospace sector for 5 million, and then we have these last two lines in the telecommunications sector, so the same. These are companies that we personally don't know at all, so there's another way to look at it.

12. On the website 13f.info, we see that his portfolio was worth $3 million at the end of 2022 and $41 million at the end of Q3 2022, and that he went from holding one share to six shares. As usual, we see media headlines saying that Michael Berry is starting to buy shares again, etc. That's exactly what we just did in this video, but we need to add a lot of nuance, and we'll see why right away.

13. On this website, we can see the evolution over time of the value of Sion's portfolio under this management, so Michael Berry's fund. Here we have the graph, so we can see that at the end of 2021, Michael Berry had $2 billion in assets under management, and that at the end of Q3 2021, he had already chosen to sell almost everything.

14. So at the end of Q3 2021, he had 40 million in assets under management, primarily in the form of stocks. He also has a significant amount of cash from investors who invested in his fund, which is currently idle. All of this is to say that his recent purchases are very insignificant. They don't really demonstrate any real conviction; we can't really deduce from this whether he strongly believes in American prisons, for example.

15. Personally, we think that if he's buying shares in American prisons, it's mainly to generate publicity again and to send a kind of message, to play the rebel a little, since, as we see in one of his recent tweets, he tells the truth and data is a deadly weapon in this country, and you will be judged accordingly.

16. So, all of this is, in our opinion, part of a marketing strategy on Michael Berry's part. In each of these tweets, he makes a lot of insinuations. Personally, we don't always understand everything. Michael Berry seems to be in his own little world; it's like something we wouldn't necessarily think of.

17. With the idea of entrusting him with our money in mind, we continue with the second piece of information, which seems much more important in terms of impact and concerns Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fund. So, we'll see which famous stock he added to his portfolio. We're not talking about tens of millions of dollars here, but billions of dollars.

18. These are amounts that reflect a real conviction on the part of the investor in question, Mr. Buffett. These are operations that were certainly much more carefully considered and that have a real message behind them that needs to be analyzed, a message that has much more value. As we can see in this chart, there was little movement in Mr.

19. Buffett's fund in Q3 2022, and the most important piece of information that immediately stands out is the purchase of Taiwan Semiconductor stock. He had $0 worth of this position in Q2 2022, and now he has $4 billion worth. That's significant, and it immediately enters the top 10 stocks in his portfolio.

20. So, this shows Warren Buffett has a very strong belief in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), so we made a video about this company when we analyzed its Q2 2022 results. TSMC stands for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, and as we mentioned, it's what we call a semiconductor company.

21. It's based in Taiwan and specializes in semiconductor manufacturing. It's the largest semiconductor company in the world, holding over 50% of the market capitalization. So, it buys large machines from ASML and then produces semiconductors that it sells to companies like AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, etc. Without going into detail, we said more or less that these figures were excellent, but that there was a major drawback: the potential conflict between China and Taiwan.

22. If it weren't for this potential conflict, it would be a fantastic company. So, feel free to check out this article on our website, "Money That Sleeps," or our video on our YouTube channel. We'd be very pleased to see some visits from this very large purchase of Taiwan Semiconductor shares. It shows that Warren Buffett isn't too worried about the Taiwan- Shin Taiwan conflict, or perhaps he thinks the risk premium is worthwhile.

23. This large purchase sends a message that it's becoming okay to buy this type of company in Taiwan or China. We also know that Apple, which is the largest holding in his portfolio, is also heavily exposed to China with its factories. It's true that by making this public, Buffett is essentially saying, "I'm going in, so those who want to can follow me." The TSMC purchases took place during this period, between June 30th and September 30th, resulting in an average purchase price of approximately $80.

24. As you can see, the share price is currently around $80, meaning that if you buy it now, you'll be buying it at almost the same price Warren Buffett bought it at. This information sends a very positive message. Moreover, we see that TSMC stock has risen by more than 10% in pre-market trading. Well, you shouldn't blindly copy Warren Buffett by buying the stock just because he did.

25. You should first try to do your own research, in our opinion, to convince yourself that the Shin-Taiwan situation is worthwhile and that you're comfortable buying a stock right in the middle of this conflict. Otherwise, the risk is having TSMC, a Taiwan-based company, in your portfolio, and with every major media headline about the potential Shin- Taiwan conflict, getting scared and wondering, "Was it right to buy this stock?" and ending up selling it haphazardly.

26. Speaking of the Shin-Taiwan conflict, there has been new information since, as you know, Joe Biden attended this meeting. They discussed various conflicts, including the one in Shin-Taiwan, and at the end of this meeting, Joe Biden said during a press conference... He didn't foresee China invading Taiwan anytime soon, and their meeting was more amicable than expected, which also boosted the market.

27. We've seen a strong rebound in Chinese stocks recently. Another observation is that Warren Buffett's portfolio value hasn't changed much since the last quarter, and the number of stocks he holds has increased from 47 to 49. We can see here that he sold one stock (in red) and bought three new stocks (in glass), including TSMC, which we just discussed.

28. Regarding other significant movements, he added approximately $2 billion to his Occidental Petroleum position, increasing it by 23%. Furthermore, the stock price has risen slightly since then. We discussed Occidental Petroleum in our previous video on the 13 fun FDGs. What seemed to interest Warren Buffett about Occidental Petroleum...

29. The thing is, they apparently have real CO2 credit factories, and they found that particularly interesting in today's increasingly polluting world. Then we see that he also sold about a billion dollars' worth of Activision stock—odd, we talked about that in our previous video. He actually bought Activision stock before Microsoft acquired the company and tried to make money on this arbitrage of the risk premium.

30. Another interesting piece of information is that he seems to be selling off some American banks, notably US Bangkor and Bank of New York. In this case, he sold 35% of his position, which we see is equivalent to almost 2 billion dollars. And for Bangkok New York, he sold about 500 million dollars' worth.

31. Then we can talk about another well-known fund called Bridgewater, which was created by Redalio. The Bridgewater fund is so diversified that we can't really extract much from it in the end. So, he has With almost 1000 stocks in his portfolio, we figured we might as well buy the SNP 500 rather than put our money into that fund.

32. Well, if you look into it a bit, you see that he's bought quite a few Visa stocks, quite a few Johnson & Johnson stocks, quite a few Alphabet stocks, and quite a few Microsoft stocks. But all of that ultimately represents very small movements compared to the total value of the fund. What we can note here is a small sale of his SNP 500 ETF.

33. We found it really improbable for an actively managed fund to buy an SNP 500 ETF. Frankly, they might as well tell their clients to buy the SNP 500 themselves rather than getting paid to do it for them. This adds another layer of fees on top of the already low fees on the SNP 500 ETF. So, not much to take away from this, but there is one amusing anecdote we found: Bridgewater, like As you may know, they had short positions on European companies.

34. When you have a short position, it means you're betting on a drop in the stock price. For those who don't know, they announced they started taking these positions around mid-June, for $1.5 billion, which is still quite a sum. Then, this short position increased throughout July to around $10 billion across 50 European stocks.

35. And then we have this news from Reuters, which announced on August 17th that they had almost completely closed their short positions in Europe and that they had maintained short positions on more than two European stocks: Banco Santander and ING, two smaller European banks, for a total of €475 million.

36. We'll see that it's quite interesting if we look at a chart of the Euro 50, since we can see that they started their short position around June 14th, after a very sharp drop, a bit like a beginner, and that throughout this recovery, they... They strengthened their short position, ultimately deciding to sell it around August 17th, almost at its peak, while the Resox 50 had risen by over 8% during that period.

37. It's true that if you had perfectly copied this short position from Ray Dalio, you would surely have paid a bit more. So, a small short entry at a lower point, reinforcement up to the peak, then closing at the peak. We find this magnificent, and it earns him a place in our ranking of timing champions.

38. All this to say that even the big names in hedge funds, like Ray Dalio, still make mistakes from time to time. And we tell ourselves that it's perhaps easier when they're doing it with other people's money. It's also important to note that Ray Dalio is no longer the manager of the Bridgewater fund; in fact, he has handed it over to the two other co-managers of the fund, called Nirvana and Marc Bartolini.

39. There is also another duo, Bob Print and Greg Jensen, who are apparently in charge of the investments. In fact, it's perhaps because of this change that the number of positions decreased, since the new investors wanted to do a bit of tidying up. We talked about the small mistake Redalio made by shorting European stocks, but we mustn't forget the exploits of some great timing champions, notably George Soros with his purchases of Riviant stock.

40. As you can see, the first position in his portfolio has a unit cost of around $104. Looking at the stock chart, you can see that he bought here shortly after the company's IPO, so he bought a total FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) purchase. Since then, the stock hasn't stopped falling; it's currently at around $34, representing a loss of approximately $1 billion for George Soros.

41. And, importantly, he's apparently selling some shares. So, there you have it, a good example of buying high and selling low. Then, as a second champion, we have Bill Ekman, who was supposed to be the next Warren Buffett. And who, as we recall, bought Netflix around 2000 for about $360 and decided to sell it for around $210 right after the drop?

42. We see that Netflix is ​​now around $300, so here we have a kind of short-term move by an investor who claims to be very long-term. He bought Netflix 20 years ago, all this while saying that streaming would become the next big thing, etc. And in the end, we see that he sells the stock 3 months after buying it, and we can see that since his sale, the stock has actually risen by almost 40%.

43. By the way, if this might interest some, we see that he made a small change in his portfolio; he sold all of his Domino's Pizza shares to buy CP shares instead. CP stands for Canadian Pacific, and it's actually the railway company in Canada. So, if you decide to follow Bill Hackman's investments, it's at your own risk.

44. And finally, we have the undisputed champion. Katywood, with her Arc Invest fund—you've probably heard of it—well, it's not just one stock that's problematic; it's practically the entire fund's strategy. She mainly buys stocks that don't generate a positive net income, and she does this in a rising interest rate environment.

45. Here we can see the chart of her Archinovation ETF, and it went from around $120 to about $40, a loss of approximately 66% in one year. All this to say that fund managers like Katywood, Beckman, and George Soro are often seen in the media giving analyses, investment advice, etc., and yet they still spread a lot of nonsense.

46. So the conclusion is that we can perhaps glean some ideas from what major investors do, but we shouldn't necessarily copy them blindly. Furthermore, as an individual investor, we have a significant advantage over fund managers: we don't need to dress up our portfolios. As the date approaches... September 30th, and well, investors do pretty much what they want with their funds; they try to buy and sell the shares they want to highlight on their Form 13F so they can then sell it to potential future investors, since, as we recall, the purpose of the funds The goal of investing is to attract more and more capital so that people can pay themselves more and more commissions.

47. As individuals, we don't need to please everyone, we don't need to constantly adjust our portfolios, we don't need to trade back and forth, we don't need to change our strategy every six months. All we have to do is buy stocks we strongly believe in and hold them as long as possible. As we've seen with professionals, there's a high turnover of assets, so ultimately, there's little conviction.

48. And if there's one person who really stands out, it's Warren Buffett, since he's truly the only one who buys stocks and holds them for the very long term. So, if there's anyone we can take inspiration from, it's Warren Buffett, in our opinion. But that doesn't mean you shouldn't do your own research to be as convinced as he is when you buy a stock.

49. This is especially true when he bought Apple shares in the past, and currently when he buys Occidental Petroleum or TSMC shares. So, thank you all for sticking around this far. In our description, you'll find the two brokers we recommend and personally use to buy stocks or ETFs. We've also included a link to our website, Argent qui Dort (Sleeping Money), where we do a lot of stock analysis and provide a lot of information.

50. If you liked the video, please give it a big thumbs up and subscribe to the channel if you haven't already. We look forward to your comments, so please tell us what you think. We're eager to discuss it with you. We wish you good luck in the stock market and hope you only take positions when you're convinced. Goodbye!