저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
빌 애크먼의 투자 기준 8가지와 그의 포트폴리오를 소개하는 영상이다. 애크먼은 넷플릭스 주식을 10억 달러에 매입했고, 이 과정에서 금리 상승 헤지를 줄여 자금을 마련했다는 점이 소개된다. 코로나 위기 때 그가 수익을 낸 헤지 거래(약 2,700만 달러 비용으로 26억 달러 수익)를 자세히 설명한다. 포트폴리오 구성(OSDH, 치폴레, 힐튼, 버거킹 계열, 도미노피자, 넷플릭스, 유니버설뮤직 등)과 집중 투자 방식을 설명한다. 애크먼의 8가지 기준(단순한 사업, 예측 가능성, 지배적 지위, 진입장벽, 잉여현금흐름, 높은 투하자본이익률, 외부 위험 노출 제한, 견고한 재무구조와 우수한 경영진)을 넷플릭스 등 사례로 설명한다. 진행자가 제시한 4가지 개인 기준(순이익 흑자, 매출 성장, 기업에 대한 강한 확신, 혁신 의지)도 소개한다. 영상은 특정 자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 거의 없고, 투자 철학과 종목 선정 방법론 설명이 중심이다.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone and welcome to this new video. Today we're going to talk about Bill Ackman and, more specifically, his eight investment criteria that he uses to select the stocks he invests in. He's the man who bought $1 billion worth of Netflix shares after the company's earnings release and the stock's subsequent 20% drop.
So, he jumped at the opportunity. Could we call him the new Warren Buffett? In any case, we're going to introduce him and his method in this video, so stay tuned until the end. Before anything else, let's take a quick look at our YouTube channel. In our last video, you asked us to reach 500 subscribers, and you succeeded!
Congratulations to you all! You presented yourselves well, and thank you to all the new subscribers. If you're not yet subscribed, please click the appropriate button and watch the video as well. Since we were introducing Bill Ackman, there's nothing better than checking Wikipedia. This is a man born in 1966, who is 55 years old and currently manages his hedge fund, Pershing Square Capital.
He comes from a rather wealthy New York family. He studied at Harvard and in 1992, immediately after graduating, he founded his first investment fund, Gotham Partners, with his classmates. It went quite well. Then, in 2004, he founded his second investment fund, Pershing Square Capital, which he currently manages, with $54 million of his own money plus funds from his former partner, Leucadia National.
Since then, things have continued. He's had his ups and downs. He's been the subject of debate, and Noah has gone into more detail about important events that have happened to him. Before that, let's talk about what he's done recently, namely the purchase of Netflix. He bought Netflix for $1 billion, which is no small thing.
In this letter to investors, he explains that he's happy to have been able to take advantage of the opportunity to buy Netflix at its attractive price. One of the company's 20 largest shareholders, he then explains further down in the letter the characteristics that led him to choose to invest in tricks, specifically those that meet eight investment criteria he still uses to select the stocks he invests in, which we'll see later in this video.
In addition to mentioning the criteria that led him to buy Netflix, he also tells us that he recently bought Versailles Music Group, and that with these two companies, he's leaning into streaming because he likes this business model and the context of this industry. What we found interesting in this letter is that he also tells us that to be able to buy Netflix, he reduced a hedge that protected him against a sharp interest rate hike.
This reduction in hedging allowed him to withdraw $1.25 billion, which is the amount he used to buy a Leaf X1. To put it simply, they thought the Fed was going to raise its rates more sharply, and so they They had hedged against this risk, but now they think this risk is lower, and so they 've reduced their hedge and are even buying fixed net income with the money.
So this could potentially send a positive signal for a market rebound, knowing that Bill Ackman has been very good at handling crises, especially the subprime mortgage crisis and the Covid crisis. Speaking of good friends, we have this article that explains in detail the trade he made during the Covid crisis with his investment fund.
The article is headlined as the best trade in history, quite frankly. There's a lot to say, so we'll put it in the description, but we'll try to summarize it very simply. In January 2020, he saw that the crisis in China with the virus was starting to become a little worrying, so he thought that the financial markets were very likely to fall.
So he wanted to hedge against this risk. In this article, he says that at first he thought about selling stocks, but that ultimately he opted for derivatives. His hedging strategy, and therefore his derivatives, cost him $27 million in premiums, like insurance, and he turned them into $2.6 billion in profits.
This very strong performance can be explained by the fact that he was very early in buying these hedging products. At that time, they weren't worth much, since the markets were rising steadily, and everyone else was thinking about hedging, except him. So these products cost him nothing, and they were incredibly profitable because everyone wanted to hedge with them, and he sold them at a much higher price, a bit like in the movie "The Big Short," if you've followed the story.
In fact, maybe they'll make a movie about his trade, and if they do it on Netflix now that he's just bought back in, it would mean the circle is complete. That would be great. So he made $2.6 billion during the market downturn, and the timing was perfect because he had his hedge in place for the three to four weeks of the decline.
It closed almost at the bottom, so during the decline in the COC (Central African Republic stock market), the stocks in his portfolio inevitably fell as well. However, he was hedged, and with the money he made from the hedge, he was able to reinvest in his stocks and even buy more right at the bottom of the crisis.
So, all this to say that it makes him a truly legitimate investor. So perhaps we should listen to what he has to say about the eight investment criteria he uses to buy stocks; it certainly won't hurt. Now that we've talked about the investor and his skills, we wanted to present the hedge fund. What immediately stands out is that there are only six stocks, so it's a very concentrated portfolio.
In fact, these six stocks date back to September 30, 2021, so we don't have the newer stocks, but we already know that we can add Netflix and Universal Music Group. Axel actually holds eight. Okay, so we 'll give you a quick overview of these six companies, so you can perhaps use them as inspiration for looking for new companies to buy.
We have OSDH, which is the American equivalent of Bricomarché, Castorama, and all that. We have Chip Hotel Mexican Grill, which is a fast-food chain in the United States. Then we have Hilton Hotels. Next, we have a company that groups together several restaurant chains, but it's mainly Burger King. We'll see if there's a real estate company involved.
We have Domino's Pizza, which everyone knows. And then there's Netflix, and Universal Music Group has been added. So, right away, we can see that there are several organic restaurants, streaming services, and hotels. It's also interesting to note that he holds, for example, 2% of Lowe's capital, and after all these companies, he holds between 5 and 20% of the capital.
So, it's still a fund that can have an impact on the management of the company. He sits on the board of several of these companies to contribute his What we found interesting is that, in his letter to investors, he says that the companies he currently holds in his portfolio—the ones we just saw— are companies that can withstand inflation because he says the products and services they offer are highly desirable, and therefore they can easily raise prices to counteract inflation.
Having a very concentrated portfolio like this immediately brings to mind Warren Buffett's portfolio, which is also very concentrated. He's somewhat inspired by the Oracle of Omaha's strategy, and what's more, the student has beaten his master over the last three years. As we can see here, Bill Ackman's performance over the last three years, with his agent, has been 74%, while Warren Buffett's hedge fund has only achieved a 56% return over the same period.
This strong performance of Pershing Square Capital is due in particular to the magnificent insights Bill Ackman gained during the crisis, which allowed him to... to protect the interests of his investors and to add to the bottom of the crisis, and so, as we'll see right away, Bill Ackman is also inspired by seeing a goal set in terms of criteria for choosing the stocks he buys.
He spoke in particular about these criteria during this Bloomberg interview, which lasts about twenty minutes. We invite you to watch it if you're interested. And we have this article that summarizes the question about life criteria. Bill Ackman tells us that he has eight principles to allow him to make good investments, and that every time he deviates from them, it ends badly.
As a nice little anecdote, he tells us that he had his eight criteria engraved on small stone tablets, like the Ten Commandments of Moses, and that he placed these tablets on each of his employees' desks. So, we'll first list the eight criteria, and then we'll come back to them later to give some examples.
The first criterion is that the business must be simple to understand, and The second criterion is predictability: the company must have a dominant position in its market. The third criterion is that it must have barriers to entry, also called a "tu" (a word often used by Warren Buffett), and the translation is actually 12, which protects castles.
The fourth criterion is that it must generate free cash flow. The fifth criterion is that the company must have a high rate of return on invested capital. The sixth criterion is that the company must have limited exposure to external risks that are not controllable. The seventh criterion is that it must have a solid balance sheet and therefore not need to resort to external funds such as capital increases.
And the eighth criterion is that the company's management must be of high quality, with good managers in particular. Now we will try to give examples with the case of Netflix, for example, or the other companies in Bill Ackman's portfolio. My first criterion for a simple, predictable business is therefore, in Africa, it's going very well.
It's simple to understand: they sell subscriptions to their customers and offer them content in the form of streaming movie series or even video games. Now, it's the same thing for Domino's Pizza; they build restaurants and sell pizzas, plain and simple. And predictable, in a way, is something you do n't know.
A gold mining company, for example, might find a gold mine one year and make a lot of money, and then the following year not find two gold mines. The second criterion is dominant market position. A company like Netflix is among the dominant companies in its market. Our dominant positions don't necessarily mean being number one.
In the streaming field, it might be Netflix, Disney+, and Amazon Prime. In fast food in France, it might be Burger King, McDonald's, and KFC, for example. So, Netflix also has the characteristic of having barriers to entry. Not just any company can arrive and compete with Netflix in a few months because it holds, in particular, a portfolio of content.
Highly developed, it also has its own streaming technology that allows for good quality streaming. There's also this network effect where more and more people are subscribing to Netflix, and where it's really become part of everyday language. The fourth criterion is that they must generate free cash flow.
So, if it's noted in the investor letter, here Netflix's free cash flow is 5 billion per year, their team of analysts must have done the research, so we'll trust that. Now, to explain the fifth criterion a little, which is a good return on invested capital, when Bill Ackman is looking for a good hero, in fact, these are companies that will provide profitability to shareholders without necessarily resorting to leverage and therefore without having to take on excessive debt.
They are not dependent on leverage. So, to put it simply, Bill Ackman doesn't really like companies that are over-indebted because they have a riskier, more unpredictable profile. So, for the sixth criterion, the company must not have too much exposure to risk. External factors that it cannot control, and therefore a company that does not meet this criterion, for example, Total, which is exposed to fluctuations in oil prices, and mining companies, which would be exposed to fluctuations in metal prices.
We could also think of companies that are exposed to significant climate change or natural disasters, for example. In any case, the companies in its portfolio have very little exposure to this risk, unfairly so because, for example, restaurants have very little risk that they cannot control, but they have external risks.
So we could say that restaurants can close a camp, there are lockdowns with COVID, but here the restaurants it has, like Chipotel or Domino's Pizza, deliver meals. Rather well thought out by Mr. Bill Ackman. So the seventh criterion: they look for companies that have a solid balance sheet and that do not need to raise capital or take on excessive debt.
Therefore, with this seventh criterion, it will notably avoid small caps that need to raise money through capital increases or... Debt borrower, for example. So, in fact, he invests in fairly mature companies that no longer need to raise money, or simply... Then we have the eighth and final criterion, which is quite obvious: it's about having good management within the company, quality leadership.
Netflix fits perfectly into this criterion since its founder notably wrote a book on management, the CEO and Reed Hastings, and his book is called "Naurouze," which in French means " The Rule: No Rule." They believe there shouldn't be any rules. So, this criterion of having good management within the company is quite obvious, but it 's still rather difficult for individuals like us to assess.
So, we've finished with Bill Ackman's eight criteria. We also hope that seeing the companies he holds in his portfolio has inspired you. We look forward to your criteria in the comments, so don't hesitate to share them with us. And we also had to share our criteria, just to discuss them. There would be four: the first would be that the company must have a positive net income.
The second is... The third criterion is that the company must demonstrate revenue growth. We simply need to have a strong belief in the values we're buying into. So, we must like the brand, we must like the product, and we must have a positive opinion of the company in general. This third criterion allows us to hold onto the company's shares even when they fall sharply.
Therefore, it's very important to have a strong belief in the companies we own in order to hold them in the long term; otherwise, it's difficult and stressful. The fourth criterion is that the company must have a drive to innovate, and the discourse, particularly from management and SEO, must be optimistic.
The leadership must be visionary, and the company must be able to project itself well into the future. So, these are our four simple and appealing criteria that we personally use well. They are based primarily on psychology and also on our vision of the future. So, if you enjoyed this video, please give it a thumbs up below and don't hesitate to subscribe.
If you enjoyed the content we offered, we hope you all don't stray too far from the rules you set for yourselves, and that's just chaos.
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