저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
스몰·미드캡 중 '작지만 성장 여력 큰(SMILE)' 기업, 경영진 경험(15~20년)·야망을 보는 투자 철학을 설명. 약세장이 부를 만든다며 과열 시 방어, 위기 시 공격적으로 움직인다고 함. 기업 스토리가 유효하면 가격과 무관하게 보유하고 가격목표·기간목표는 두지 않는다고 강조. 세라 사례(장기 수익)를 들며 인도 장기 성장(인구·생산성·주택·관광)을 낙관. 최근 PSU 소형 은행이 싸 보여 매수 관심을 언급.
다듬은 글
So first of all let me tell you that what you talk about luck and skill, of course luck is what you should understand, skill is what I understand, many times you do some work wrongly, you do it without skill, you do not have experience, still you do some work, then you get benefit from it or you escape death in it, that is your luck that saves you, but every time luck saves you, it teaches you a lesson.
That lesson becomes your skill or your experience. Next time luck wo n't save you. That skill will save you which you learned for the first time through luck or you can say that you failed and narrowly escaped falling, then next time that thing will teach you. First of all this has happened and the second question was that of course the smile which I follow is that I feel that the small cap and mid cap companies do not take time to become multibaggers, just like an elephant, if it turns around, it will take time.
Ok? But if you understand, one deer wants to roam around and another small cheetah wants to roam around. Even an ant, if it wants to move, can do so quickly. So from the beginning I had this idea that I had to work quickly in life. I do n't have much time. I felt as if I was already far behind others.
So I understood that small cap and mid cap are risky. Of course it is also illiquid. But I felt that these multiplies are too much. So my inclination towards this term was that whatever work I do, I will do it in small and mid caps. The second question you asked was, tell me the full form of SMILE, meaning for the viewers who do not know your framework, then for them, SMILE means small in size, so I work in this small and mid cap and small in size means here, the mid cap which I have at one place, I mean the market cap of 30-35000 crores, that also comes under mid cap.
Technically, as per SEBI law or the law of the exchanges, my small in size means that in whichever sector I want to invest, the small company which is not necessary, be it number three, number four, number six or number eight, be it small in size, so I see which companies within it fit my parameters and medium in experience or whatever management is there because I feel that management plays a variant role, so I feel that the management which should be there should be in medium in Experience means he should have 15-20 years of experience in the market, so in 15-20 years he must have seen three-four big and small cycles and must have faced a lot of difficulties, so he must have got the experience of how to go through the storm, so generally I do not invest in the new companies of this country till now, that is why their experience is very important here and the large in aspiration, the aspiration of the management is amazing, that is very important, he should have fire in the belly hunger that today I am a small company.
Today I am a company worth Rs 1000 crore. I want to become 5000. The aim is to become a company worth Rs 5000 to 10,000 crore. Then we have to become a national company. It has to become international. So it is very important that he has hunger inside him. In this and lastly there is extra large market potential.
But that size should be the size of its product or the size of its sector. So I speak in short lines one by one and I feel like I don't hunt for the crocodile in the bond. I hunt for the fish in the ocean that has the entire ocean to swim around, so I use this formula and with this my investment becomes big, my mind is very clear ma'am, I think that this bull market or bear market is not something like that, so I also have a code that we are neither in a bull market nor in a bear market, we are in the stock market, it is to understand the Indian economy, if the economy is running then the stock market is its reflection, this stock market does not have any existence of its own, whatever is happening in the economy also gets reflected, if it increases a lot here then it connects itself to it.
This is the phenomenon of the market. So this ball does not make any difference to me whether it is a bull market or a bear market. Rather, what happens is that when the market becomes very hyped or goes high, then I withdraw from the market. I get subdued. I come in to play defense. And when the market is in crisis, I become offensive.
So I work in reverse. So, I also have a quote, madam, that whatever money people in the world have earned, they have earned it by investing in the bear market. You wo n't create much wealth by investing in a bull market. There is a difference between making money and creating wealth. The wealth that is created in the market is also created during a crisis.
Whether you take the crisis of Lebanon Brothers or the crisis of Covid or any other crisis. In that, the person who bought the shares, by showing courage or by adjusting his portfolio in any way, earned money here. So for me, this bull market and bear market, first of all, just to say something since we are talking, so I can give you some references about bull market and bear market, but actually mentally I am not worried about it, of course that does not mean that my stock price falls, so of course I am worried about it, not worried means it draws my attention that it has fallen, then he says what was mine, it has fallen, your demat statement belongs to the market, your bank statement belongs to you, it is very simple, so this bull market and bear market does not matter much to me, the lesson is that right now after Covid, the market is falling and these new people who have come, this will create a structure of life for them.
If these people learn such a big lesson from this, then it is a big lesson for them. This is Blessing and Disguise. These people come to the stock market first, they come to speculate. First of all, this and that market supports you in earning money immediately. Because if you push a moving train, you will feel as if you are pushing it.
Earlier, the bull market used to end within 9 months and the bear market used to last for two-three years. After 2003, it happened that the bull market lasted for 5 years and when the bear market came, a big crisis occurred, within 10 months the market made a bottom and came into revival mode. If a new high comes after 3 years or 4 years, it doesn't matter.
But the stocks that were supposed to make big lows did so and the crisis that was about to come ended and the market started stabilizing. The same situation happened with us during Covid. So, if you look at this Covid, the bigger crisis than this was the biggest crisis of the century. Even after that, if you look at the market, it had come into recovery mode within 9 months.
A market should not be mistaken for a bull market or a bear market just because it reaches a new high. It is a big myth that a bull market will happen only if a new high is reached. Nothing like this happens. Coming to a new high is a rather dangerous sign. That could mean he's preparing to fall. So I don't believe in that thing.
Bull Market Bear Market Rather I will tell you that between 2008 to 2012, these four years went by in which the shares that I had bought earlier, at that time, increased by 50-50, 100-100 times between 8 to 14 and people think that the bull market came after 2014, people think like this, then these people should not think like this, I feel that bull markets are getting bigger, bear markets are getting smaller and the coming of bear market is like a filter, what is it with me, yes I have a lot of patience.
So one of my quotes is, chase the story behind the stock, not money on the table. Money will make you rich but stories will make you wealthy. So this applies to both things. This applies both when the market is falling and when the market is rising. Many times it happens that you bought shares for ₹50.
You think that ₹100 becomes ₹150. You leave and later find out that it becomes ₹2000. It becomes ₹5000. So you missed that story. It also happens that you bought shares within ₹50 and it became ₹500. According to the formula that I have just told you, according to what I think, I would not have sold it even for Rs 500 or even Rs 200.
But after that it fell to ₹50. For 5 years it kept oscillating between ₹50 and ₹100 which you are talking about. This also happens. So you will have to choose a formula. You are not so smart that you will apply this formula to this, you will apply that formula to that. You do n't have that ball. A crystal ball will tell you this.
You will have to follow only one principal. So my principle is that I remain in the shares as long as the story is intact. Till then, whether it performs or does not perform in numbers or performs in the market or does not perform in the market. I remain within him. When the story changes, I can leave even when he is performing.
I simply do not pay attention to the share market prices. I pay attention to the company's activities. What about me, I don't even have a fixed time to take it. If I buy shares and you ask me when will I sell them, I don't know. It may be after 6 months, it may be after 12 years, and at what price will you sell me, I have no price.
Because here shares of ₹50 are worth ₹00. We have seen this. As you may have heard, I have a share. If I add dividend to it, the stock is sanitary and gives a return of ₹16,000 times. 16,000 times. If I calculate dividend in it then I get ₹1 costing. So one idea can change your life. So here your work can be done within one stock only.
So by saying this, I do not have any price target, this thing teaches me that I do not have a price target. I do n't have a time target. As long as it's working, it's working. Lal is the period, even then Lal see what it is, what I understand. If you look at your portfolio in the stock market individually, all the shares, all the athletes are not going to cross 100 meters in 8.9 seconds, you have to see the entire bouquet, how many flowers are there in the bouquet, some will give more fragrance, some will last longer, some are more artistic, some portfolio will give you percentage wise return, some will give multiple times return, some will not perform, you should look at it overall.
If you see it single, you may regret that it did not perform for me. It is not necessary that all the shares will perform. So if he doesn't perform and the management isn't making any mistakes or doing anything stupid, I'll stick with him. The thing was that at that time only three companies were listed in the sanitary ware category.
One was Cera Sanitary Ware and there was Hindustan ID AID Pahari and one was Hindustan Se Ware, these three companies were listed, rest of the other unorganized sectors which were manufactured in Morbi, all of them were manufactured in it, so there were only three companies and the market size of India is definitely growing.
We are seeing that growth is continuously taking place within India. So there is bound to be growth in housing also. This means that any person will just say after seeing it, you do not need to study much about it that India will grow. As long as there is growth in productivity, there is growth in population.
Every country expands. Every country grows. So these were two things in India. There was growth in productivity and also in population. So there will be growth in housing. Will come to housing. So understand that it will come inside sanitary ware. So something happened there that the shares were cheap.
These shares were very cheap compared to others. So all I understood was that all the other ones are available in 10-12 KP and in Sera Centre it is available in 5 KP. And I asked a developer who is my cousin and a real estate developer, he said we use Cera and generally developers use Cera more because it is cheaper than others, so I thought there is a boom in housing, all this is coming, so then I bought Cera, at the same time one more thing happened that EID Parry sold its division, its sanitary division, to Roca, so when it was sold to Roca, they paid double the sales price and Cera was available at half the sales price at that time.
I had four times leverage, understand that if the turnover was of Rs 500 crore, it is available for Rs 500 crore and Roka bought a company worth Rs 1000 crore for Rs 2000 crore, then I thought that if there is Rs 500 crore and Rs 2000 crore, then I have leverage, so I made my investment there and my confidence increased and I kept it, okay, so this is a small thing, it is a very simple thing, if you observe it then it is a very simple thing, so accordingly I just took Sera and then the housing boom continued and all that and population growth was also not happening in India, so I kept reading about it.
I sell a little bit in between and I sold a little bit. Whatever last 1.15% was left, I got one to one bonus last year on September 23 at the price of Rs 8200. So I sold it all at the price of Rs 16400. Look at the trends, what I feel is that we are currently in the Amrit Kaal, I feel that India is going through adolescence phase, which is called India entering adulthood from childhood and the next 5 years, 7 years are so important for India or you can understand that this decade is so important, in this the structure of India for this century will be ready, in this decade, within the next 5 to 8 years, you can understand that the structure of what India is going to do in the next 50 to 100 years will be ready.
So these are very fragile and very important and should have high growth potential. So this does not mean that I feel that all the sectors are going to boom, but if you compare everything with any parameter. We speak like per capita income. We speak but we speak per capita consumption which is the formula used.
Let's compare it with China and other countries. So Mini Skulm is nowhere to be found. Correct. We do not have any role in anything. If we have any comparison, I think all the sectors are going to do well. So, but there are some sectors which I like, I always think negatively about the ones which are not working, my attention goes towards them.
Whatever becomes fashionable, I leave that sector. I become conscious that this is a big tradition. Everybody is saying the same thing. So I talk about that and I do n't pay attention to that. I don't even sell it. I keep it big. So I think Sir, tourism is for example, India is still under penetrated for tourism.
Look, I like banks in the current market. PSUS banks: The small banks within PSUs seem cheaper to me. You look so cheap that I feel like buying that bank.
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