저자: Kevin · 외국인
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암호화폐 하락 원인으로 청산 규모, 인플레이션 기대 하락(월가 2.8%), 기술주 로테이션, 옴미크론 우려 완화 후 회복주 이동을 꼽음. 장기적으로 블록체인 기술은 유망하나 토큰 가치는 압박받을 수 있음. 2022~2023년 규제 호재로 신고점 기대하며 매수 스탠스이고 현재 암호화폐 비중 약 3%를 8~10%까지 늘릴 의향 표명.
다듬은 글
why i believe that cryptocurrencies are falling their trajectory for 2022 is this a buy the dip opportunity and remember folks there's never just one reason why things fall with that disclaimer out of the way and to mention that you could get four actually five totally free stocks with weeble via the link in the description and down below click that get five totally free stocks with weeble folks let's get into the video okay first as part of a multitude of reasons why cryptocurrencies are falling we can start with going to coinglass.com and taking a peek at the total liquidations we do have a slightly elevated amount of liquidations right now we're sitting at about 271.8 million in liquidations this is actually ticked up slightly since the last time i checked here the last time we saw liquidations around this uh were around december 16th and december 12th and what i like doing is taking a peek at what kind of price action we had on december 12th and december 16th just to get an idea of what liquidations can do to the market so if we go on over to december 12th we will see that on december 12th bitcoin was actually up 3 so liquidations do not necessarily have to drive selling pressure if we go to the 16th we see that bitcoin was a 0.07 percent so on both of those recent liquidation spikes we actually didn't see a substantial decline actually any decline in bitcoin's price now we did see a lot of liquidations here see this sort of longer candlestick right here this wick coming way down to 42 300 this was december 4th and if i remember correctly december 4th ah yeah look at this we had substantial liquidations now this chart here shows uh 4 p.m december 3rd liquidations and then that price action on weeble shows on december 4th right here this is just because of the way they measure the 24-hour differences when they reset the 24-hour gain and candlesticks so to speak but this is essentially the same period of pain right here and you could see the same thing even if you go a day before the 12th you're still up on btc and the day before the 16th uh the 15th you're also up on btc so on the smaller liquidation days where you're somewhere around two to three hundred million like what we saw again on the 12th and the 16th or really today you usually don't see a large downtrend in cryptocurrencies there's usually something larger at play that's either bringing the trend for cryptocurrency up or down if you get a substantial liquidation like in excess of a billion dollars oh yeah absolutely you are seeing a candle wick fly way down now those could be nice by the dip opportunities but they do not tend to last long as you can see they're usually a reason why you'll break past support and then you come back to support this is pretty typical right now despite this beautiful inflection point that we had coming off of support we lost momentum we got rejected at 52 000 on btc and we've fallen down why are we potentially getting rejected at btc why did ethereum never really inflict up and why is it that all of a sudden we're seeing other coins also get rejected like ada getting rejected off that 150 not able to close a full day candlestick above 150.
what's happening okay the only thing that i could find and then we're going to get into longer term thesis the only thing that i could find this morning was fear over inflation actually going down now i thought this was quite interesting because i've run surveys on twitter before and of my followers it seems that about 50 of you invest or used to invest in cryptocurrency because of inflation and looking for an inflation hedge when i re-ran that survey about 40 percent of you and i added enough a third option about 40 percent of you chose that third option which is you invest in cryptocurrencies because they trend up in the long term that was the quote i invested in crypto because they trend up in the long term and 40 chose that and then the next highest amount uh somewhere around 30 was that you invest in cryptocurrencies because of inflation as an inflation hedge so we know that when cryptocurrencies are going up and inflation is going up crypto tends to continue to trend up and people use cryptocurrencies as an inflation hedge now it's much more than that we know that cryptocurrencies are much more than that but what happened this morning well the suits lowered their inflation expectations and this is combined with the second thing that happened so number one inflation expectations got lowered we're expecting only 2.8 well wall street wall street is only expecting 2.8 percent inflation by the end of 2022 and 2.5 inflation at the beginning of 2023.
that's a substantial decline from the 6.9 percent cpi reads where we are now and we believe that cpi is grossly understating how much inflation we actually have to to see a substantial downtrend in uh the cpi read while at the same time we expect wages to go up and rents to finally show up as increasing in uh the uh owner's equivalent rents in the cpi data and we're still expecting inflation to rotate down and now lower than expected or this wall street is that could be one of the reasons we're seeing a little bit of selling pressure in cryptocurrencies because if expectations for inflation are going down then maybe the need for a hedge via cryptocurrencies is going down so that is a potential rationale now keep in mind many of us in the cryptocurrency space and i don't blame you believe that the cpi is rigged in fact i've watched other creators talk about how rigged the cpi is that it's not fair that the basket of goods changes every so often to adjust to different products now this i actually and trust me i agree that a lot of things are rigged but this i actually agree with the data collectors for cpi on you've got to change the basket of goods regularly when you've got constant technological innovations otherwise you're comparing things that don't make sense anymore like you can't constantly compare the price of a 20-inch tv year after year after year for year because consumers aren't only buying 20-inch tvs anymore in fact i don't remember anyone ever buying a 20-inch tv recently but anyway so so that makes sense but i will say i agree that owner's equivalent rent is a fraud maybe i shouldn't say it's a fraud but it's ridiculous basically the cpi lags in rent inflation by about six months the reason it lags by about six months is because it takes time for rents to go up for property managers to essentially either raise rents or to find new tenants and then recognize those higher rents and then for owners to go okay the rental values have gone up own the cpi data does not just measure the very last most recent comparable sale or comparable rental comp even though that's actually what they probably should do to properly measure uh what actual rental inflation is so this now all this what i just talked about with cpi combine this with the fact that if we're expecting owner's equivalent rent to go up why is inflation still expected to go down when housing or shelter costs make up one-third of cpi like if we're expecting owner's equivalent rent and shelter costs to skyrocket in 2022 via cpi because they already have skyrocketed then shouldn't inflation go up and that's the argument that yeah but we might actually or at least the market is expecting substantial deflation in certain prices whether it's supply chains finally uh getting back together or autos chips whatever interestingly we actually haven't seen that much inflation in chips part of that however could be due to the fact that a lot of companies lock in 12 to 24 month contracts for chip supplies so we might still see that chip inflation so there's still things that could push inflation up chip inflation after contracts were off wages and and housing shelter which again makes up one-third of cpi so there could still be reason to see inflation go up which i think is one of the reasons why it still makes sense to maintain a cryptocurrency hedge uh but uh there's another thing to consider and that is that wall street conducts about 70 of cryptocurrency trading whether that's through algorithms or or institutionals manually conducting these trades institutions believe that inflation is going to be lower than what consumers expect consumers expect that in a year inflation's going to be closer to 4.3 percent notice that divergence if institutions are doing most of the trading and they believe that inflation expectations are going to be lower consumers believe inflation expectations are going to be higher it means consumers are going to be much more likely to buy the dip and huddle on crypto where institutions might be some of the first to go now is that justified should you be the first to go well here's the thing cryptocurrencies tend to trade with at least lately or lately and this did not used to be true but they tend to trade a little bit more closely with tech stocks and when we notice a tech rotation or a rotation away from tech we do sometimes notice that cryptocurrencies fall now this does not mean that the indices have to be down we've learned this hardcore already we're seeing recovery stocks pumped today and as recovery stocks are pumping today like carnival cruise lines and disney and american airlines the indices are higher this is one of the crazy things about the indices but anyway if you look at some of our larger uh tech stocks in the s p you'll see that uh nvidia is down you'll pull up tesla so we're almost down three percent on nvidia we're down about point nine percent on tesla down about one percent on rk uh i do wonder if apple and microsoft are up no apple's actually down as well msft is also down so you're seeing some of our bigger tech players down uh and then of course the fintech space is continuing to get obliterated as well as uh software businesses adobe has recovered from some of its bottom though but it is not uncommon for you to see a sell-off in cryptocurrencies either come before a tech sell-off or after or with a tax sell-off not uncommon at all and so it is entirely possible that some of the institutional traders are taking money that they've actually parked in tech or in cryptocurrencies and they're moving them over to recovery stocks which are at a decent discount right now as we're noticing that omicron is continuing to prove to be more of a nothing burger now i i have to say that very sensitively if anybody is severely sick or hospitalized or dying with omicron my heart goes out to you and your family the reason i say this no is because for the vast majority of folks it appears knock on wood that omicron is severely minor or substantially uh mild i should say markets initially overreacted sold off recoveries traded into cryptocurrencies and some of the big mega caps like apple now we're seeing a little bit of a rotation back to recoveries as omicron is proving to be less severe so so far we've got a few different things here okay we've got inflation expectations very important then we've got attack and potentially rotation into recoveries tech sell-off pushes down kryptos crypto sell-off also can push down tech but anyway rotation from these over into recoveries makes sense what else folks well this is a longer run belief and most people say this is just pure fud and it's totally fine i agree that what i'm about to say is just fud and it's not stopping me from investing in fact what i'm going to do just because i want to prove it to you is i'm going to show you my coin base right now which is where i keep all my crypto with the exception of about 40 or 50 well maybe like 35 000 uh of axe infinity uh and that's because we have actually teams uh oh gosh everything's red but anyway i will just go ahead and show my total holdings just so i can be transparent i like to be as transparent as possible so i've got about uh 271 in ada 222 eth 213 solana btc 161 polygon 116 polka dot 111 uh tazos 92 um uh avax 32.3 a luna uh 28 and then like six thousand dollars here and leftover dollars uh anyway i'm still working on on balancing this out because i've been re creating this portfolio that's because i sold like 95 of the crypto that i had while bitcoin was sitting at about 58 000.
i saw a larger downtrend coming and i've been rebuying really between forty eight thousand and about fifty thousand five hundred that's been kind of my rebuy target which is essentially where we are now we're roughly at about forty nine thousand right now in btc okay so full transparency out there i still believe in this but now what is the fun that i'm gonna say okay i gotta get the out of the way so look the fud uh is that a i believe blockchain technology uh is uh and uh the uh asymmetric uh cryptography that we use for uh for encrypting blockchain technology is absolutely incredible i also believe that we are going to evolve to a new form of cryptography when uh quantum computers start becoming more of a thing and so i believe that blockchain technology is going to remain quite immutable and essentially irreversible for a very very long time into the future uh i'm very very bullish on blockchain technology for that aspect i'm also very diff bullish on various different types of blockchains which i love not just layer two solutions built on top of let's say ethereum uh but also the advances that we're seeing within cardano ethereum going to 2.0 uh and btc going over to lightning these very much excite me but i do have concerns that at some point in the future potentially 20 30 years down the road or sooner i don't know but will become a utility that is the best forms of utility will kind of be like your socal gas or your pg e or your socal edison or your comcast versus your att where basically you're paying a utility bill for blockchain as your uh essential backbone for all financial transactions whether that's your quickbooks transactions or your mint.com stuff for your bank stuff whatever somehow i do think that blockchain technology is going to underlie all of this unfortunately and this happens a lot in the cryptocurrency space as much as we can love a technology there is a very very common disconnect between that that is overlooked i should say a very commonly overlooked disconnect between blockchain technology and tokenomics this is very important remember folks tokenomics are a slice of the market cap of a token but blockchain technology is different blockchain is what the token sits on top of so the token sits on top of blockchain okay most of you all already know this point is just because the blockchain does very well does not necessarily mean that in 20 or 30 years the token has to do well so i do have a longer term concern that token values with the exception of purely deflationary tokens are going to come under pressure and this is where i do think that btc has a longer run edge now i also really really believe in ethereum i think in the short term like temporarily you could potentially even see a flipping where you see ethereum surpass the the price of bitcoin where you get this sort of inflection point but i do think at some point in the future that would rotate down if we ever did see that kind of flipping because of particularly this reason here that e tokens that ride on it have to maintain their value especially if they're slightly inflationary which ethereum still is i'm i'm bullish on bitcoin but then again bitcoin is very important as an inflation hedge for a lot of individuals and if inflation rotates back down more substantially and quicker than we believe then we could see some pain for btc pricing in 2022 now personally i'm still bullish on cryptocurrency tokens for 2022 and i want to make this clear oop that's a different video there you go so the reason i'm bullish is specifically because of regulation i believe that regulation is going to be a massive positive catalyst for cryptocurrencies going into 2022 and well i mean we're going into 22 right now so throughout 2022 i think it's going to be a positive catalyst that is going to open up a lot of new money to cryptocurrencies whether we get excitement over spot etfs or whatever it is going to happen in my opinion we're going to get spot etfs in either 2022 or 2023 and i do believe that we're going to see all-time new highs so new all-time highs for a lot of the coins that we're investing in this is why as a trader in cryptocurrencies i'm bullish on cryptos for 2022 and i personally see selloffs like this as buying opportunities i did a little bit of buying yesterday i plan to do a little bit more buying today unfortunately yesterday i bought a little bit right before things started selling off but sometimes that happens fortunately before that i bought the dip very nicely so hey you get sometimes you do perfectly sometimes you don't that's just the nature of trading you try to be right 80 of the time and i'm hodling these i've not sold any cryptocurrencies uh i believe at least for the last month but anyway at least last month uh because i've been buying i've been rebuilding the portfolio and that's because i believe that regulation is going to push us to new all-time highs positive regulation is going to push us to new all-time highs in 2022 and 2023 i'm very optimistic about that i might be overly optimistic though and this is where i have to caution that a lot of the regulation that we're waiting for is an act of congress one of the issues that i foresee is that if cryptocurrencies become a campaign issue of 2022 then we might not see any cryptocurrency legislation from congress with the exception of minor amendments to some of the disasters that we saw for example in the bipartisan infrastructure package with the kyc rules potentially affecting minors which is completely moronic uh but that aside if uh cryptocurrencies become a political issue going into 2022 uh or in 2022 since again we're going into 2022 already there and it becomes a political uh talking point for the november 2022 election we might not end up seeing any regulatory progress until 2023 so in my opinion as long as you are comfortable hauling until 2023 end of 22 2023 uh then then cryptocurrencies are something that could make sense as part of a diversified portfolio i can't give you financial advice but i keep cryptocurrencies at about three to four percent right now i'm willing to increase this to a max of about eight to ten percent if we get a larger substantial sell-off i'm willing to double uh maybe even slightly more than double my cryptocurrency position as a portion of my portfolio again right now sitting around uh three-ish percent so this gives you a little bit of perspective now let's go ahead and reconcile all of what i just talked about uh i believe number one cryptocurrency regulation is going to be very very bullish for cryptocurrency whether that comes in 2022 or 2023.
number two it's very important to separate blockchain technology from tokenomics and understand that in the very long term there could be a compression of token values but i believe that would only come after the positive regulatory catalyst that we would expect to see in 2022 or 2023. next i believe that inflation will go down i believe the suits are more likely to be right along with the fed then inflation is going to be somewhere around that 2.8 percent it's cbi inflation okay we're going with that still an inflection point to the downside even though real inflation's probably higher right but i believe that we're going to see inflation rotate down if inflation rotates down much more than expected there could be a headwind to uh cryptocurrencies but i think that would be offset by positive regulatory change and therefore i'm hodling and i'm actually recommend well i can't say recommend because i can't give financial advice but let's just say i'm buying today s consider getting your up to five free stocks with weeble via the link down below go to medkevin.com weebl bye
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