저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 달러 체제가 한계에 도달해 달러 약세와 인플레이션 압력이 커질 것이라고 본다. 중국 위안화 페그와 달러 예금 구조 중국 은행의 달러 예금 증가는 달러 수요를 늘리지만, 중국 정부가 위안화 페그를 유지하려 달러를 사들이면 달러가 하락을 막게 된다. 그는 시장이 자유롭게 달러 가치 하락을 받아들여야 한다고 주장한다. 중국의 외환보유고와 내수 전환 중국이 막대한 외환보유고를 쌓은 이유는 달러 하락 방지와 위안화 절상 억제 때문이었다. 앞으로는 내수 인구 부양과 원자재 확보가 더 중요해져 저평가 위안 유지 정책의 우선순위가 낮아진다고 본다. 미국 인플레이션과 수입 구조 연준이 돈을 찍어도 중국산 저가 상품 수입으로 물가가 억제되었고, 그 돈이 해외로 수출되는 구조였다. 그러나 서비스 물가는 정부 발표보다 훨씬 많이 올랐고, 상품 가격 제외 시 실제 인플레이션은 더 높다고 주장한다. 미국 국채와 외국인 수요 이탈 외국인의 미국 국채 매입이 금리를 인위적으로 낮게 유지해 재정적자 확대를 허용했다. 외국인이 이탈하면 연준이 국채를 매입(화폐화)해야 하고, 이는 추가 달러 발행과 인플레이션으로 이어진다고 본다. 파월은 이 위험을 이해하지 못한다고 평가한다. 리스크와 전망 달러 체제 신뢰 붕괴, 재정 적자 확대, 화폐화 압력이 겹치면 달러 가치 하락과 물가 상승이 심화될 수 있다는 것이 핵심 리스크다.
다듬은 글
Peter Schiff said that it is clear that Moe's foreign currency deposits in China are in the US dollars so when Chinese Banks take deposits in US dollars they can give Val as many loans because they have to hold more dollars than they did before so the idea is that this will increase the demand for dollars in China because the banks will have to buy or hold on to more dollars so they don't have to sell as many dollars however he doesn't think this move will do much to help the dollar this means that the bank will do more to try to stop the dollar from falling which he thinks would be a bad idea he thinks that the government should let the market work and let the value of the dollar fall the yuan is not the only currency that will lose value against the dollar but if the goal of this policy is to make the dollar stronger this could backfire if Chinese Banks which now have to keep more dollars in reserve and can't lend out as many cut the interest they pay their depositors on US dollars because they can't make as much money lending out those dollars and if they do the difference between what you can earn on your Yuan deposits and what you can earn on your dollar deposits will get bigger this could make more Chinese people decide they'd rather bang their Yuan than their dollars so they end up selling their dollars so they can turn their deposits into Yuan and earn more interest now this is going to happen anyway because when the dollar really starts to fall and people in China realize how risky it is to hold dollars they will choose the safety of holding their own currency instead but there also have been a lot of people who have said that the Chinese Yuan would fall if it weren't for the Chinese currency pack that somehow by tying the currency to the dollar they are making the currency stronger than it would be otherwise if it weren't for that point the Yuan would fall obviously that's not true when the Central Bank steps in to help the dollar if China pulls the peg the dollar will crash not that you want in fact the main reason China has so many foreign exchange reserves is that they had to buy that many dollars to keep the dollar from falling and to keep their own currency from rising so he thinks that the ability to buy things inside the country is becoming much more important than exports to the US so trying to keep the value of their own currency artificially low is no longer a top priority they will have to feed and take care of a lot more people so they want more money to buy things they want to find out how much raw materials will cost and what else people will need they want these things to be taken down and they'll care more about meeting the needs of their own population which is now going to really start to grow then meeting the needs of the American population which is in a lot of trouble because we're going to have to take care of ourselves more and more and we lack the ability to do so because we have become overly reliant on countries such as China causing our economy to crumble our industrial capability is no longer available we've seen the economy shift towards the service sector economy where consumers borrow money to buy things they didn't buy but all of this is based on the Dollar's Reserve status and our capacity to import things we didn't create and borrow money we didn't save consider the basic Milton Friedman inflation which is what inflation is because there is too much money chasing too few Commodities you print more money which raises the quantity of goods and what is the state of the American economy the FED brings so much money but it doesn't lose any value examine the Dollar's exchange rate against different currencies we've seen a significant increase in money printing despite a significant expansion in the fed's balance sheet the dollar has not lost much value relative to other currencies despite the fact that supply has been considerably expanded consider the United States to be an island we had no trade with any other country so any money imprinted by the Federal Reserve stayed within our boundaries and never left so the only thing you could buy with the money issued by the Fed was items made in the United States because that was the only source of products obviously the outcome would have been very different because if the FED brings a bunch of money and we don't have anything we are not producing we don't have companies generating Goods prices will surely Skyrocket however there existed an escape valve that permitted the FED to print a large amount of money while not raising the price of products and that was the fact that there was an entire Globe out they're capable of producing items that the US economy couldn't we were able to take all of the money that the Federal Reserve printed and use it to buy all of the Commodities manufactured outside of the United States so the FED creates money the government receives it and distributes it to Americans Americans spend their money on Chinese items and now the Chinese are sending us their things while we are sending the Chinese our money as a result the money created by the FED is exported the chinese-made goods are now being delivered to the United States so now we have all of those extra Commodities to keep costs under control and if you look at the breakdown of the CPI between goods and services you will notice that prices have risen significantly even with the government fixing the CPI because the cost of the services has risen by more than the government admits but if Commodities are excluded the price increase is much more there is no foreign alternative because we cannot easily import those services that stuff cannot be outsourced because the services must be performed locally however when it comes to products more and more things are being outsourced to cheaper manufacturing economies such as China which has put the lid on Goods costs and as a result when the prices of goods are average with the prices of services the measured rate of inflation is lower consider the low production cost of a country like China which was just getting started 20 years ago they went through a long period of time where they had a Communist Regime not just a name but in practice so you had a lot of extremely poor people and as they began to embrace capitalism wages began at a very low level and they didn't have many of the rules and regulations that we did because they did not have all of these environmental safeguards the cost of manufacturing and labor capital in a place like China was significantly lower so even though the Federal Reserve was printing money we were able to Outsource production and maintain costs slow we were printing money and shipping it elsewhere this would ordinarily not function because if you have a large straight imbalance like the United States your currency will plummet because their trading partners would have all this currency but nothing to buy because the whole point of Commerce is to export in order to import you understand the principle of comparative advantage and as a nation you can manufacture certain items efficiently while not producing others rather than producing everything you produce only what you can efficiently produce and then trade it for what you cannot efficiently produce however the purpose of your exports is to pay for your Imports you don't export to merely export it would be a waste of resources you export in order to pay for your Imports but what about America you have China and other countries sending to the US they don't get Imports they get dollars because the US is the reserved currency and those dollars are worth something so our trading partners are willing to have been in the past to adjust the items they make in exchange for the money we print now their willingness to continue to do that and pursue this Arrangement he thinks is coming to an end and he thinks the world is going to Tire of exchanging real goods for our paper especially when they understand how much less that paper is going to be worth in the future that it is now when they realize the box that the FED is in with respect to its ability to control inflation and the fact that government deficits are going to keep on getting bigger and bigger and bigger putting more and more pressure on the Federal Reserve to monetize those deficits and in fact the reason that the deficits were able to get so big in the first place was because of this arrangement because foreigners were willing to hold on to our U.S treasuries and keep interest rates artificially low which emboldened the government to go even deeper into debt because normally a government that was this profile would be punished by higher interest rates and that punishment would change their behavior and cost more fiscal responsibility we were never punished for our recklessness so we keep doing it foreigners encouraged this and now they are put on the brakes because dlc's allowing all this debt the Federal Reserve will replace foreign treasury buyers foreigners buying U.S treasuries don't create additional dollars treasuries are bought using existing dollars when the FED buys treasuries it must issue more dollars to finance it which causes inflation if those dollars stay here and aren't exported they'll bid up prices Powell doesn't grasp that we can keep exporting inflation at the same rate thus Goods prices will rise what are your reactions to the ideas that Peter Schiff has presented here is this information useful for you we look forward to reading your responses in the comment box down below and that is located further down on this page we are grateful that you have chosen to subscribe to this channel stay tuned for additional engaging articles pertaining to the handling of finances thank you
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