저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
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결론: 그랜섬은 현재 미국 주식시장이 버블 근처이며 인덱싱은 과대평가 종목까지 보유하게 만든다는 경고를 한다. 핵심 주장: 인덱싱은 아마존 같은 승자를 놓치지 않지만 버블 때 과대평가 주식을 함께 보유하게 되며, 버블 후 원금 회복에 1928~1929년 고점 기준 1955년, 1974년 고점 기준 1987년, 2000년 고점 후 2010년까지 걸렸다고 설명한다. 버블 특징: 버블은 상승이 가속되고, 뉴스 1면·라디오·TV 첫 소식에 등장하며 비트코인 같은 투기 자산과 함께 언급되는 경향이 있다고 본다. 과거 사례: 2000년에는 성장 둔화가 미국에 집중됐고 부동산은 건설비보다 쌌으며 물가연동채(TIPS)는 4.2% 수익률이었다. 일본 1989년 버블은 부동산 가치가 캘리포니아 주 전체보다 높다는 식이었고 이후 10년 이상 침체됐다. 현재 평가: 채권시장은 역사상 가장 고평가됐고 금리는 인류 역사상 가장 낮다고 주장한다(Jim Grant 인용). 미국 주식은 최고가 구간 가능성이 있으며 버블 전문가들은 올해를 2000년 다음으로 버블 상위권으로 본다. 부동산은 최근 1년 약 20% 상승했고, 가계소득 대비 집값은 1906년 부동산 붐 정점 수준에 도달했다. 자산가격 영향: 자산가격 상승은 자산이 없는 개인과 사회 전체에 피해를 준다. 자산수익률이 낮아지고 경제 복리 성장도 둔화된다. 이익률 관점: 기업 이익률은 평균회귀한다고 보며, 현재 이익률(미국 기업 이익률 30% 증가)은 할인해서 봐야 한다. 시장 PER은 과거 100년보다 약 70% 높다. 국가 성장: 고성장국이 주식 수익률에서 오히려 부진했고, 수익성이 성장 속도보다 중요하다. 중국은 교육 수준과 시험 성적이 미국보다 높다고 평가한다. 구조 리스크: 기후변화와 인구가 최대 위협이며, 기업권력 확대, 독과점, 노조 약화, 소득 불평등을 우려한다. 미국의 불평등은 선진국 중 상위권이라고 지적한다. 조건/리스크: 버블 붕괴 시 회복까지 10~20년이 걸릴 수 있어, 버블 구간에서 노출을 줄이는 것이 낫다고 제시한다. 출연자 전망: 현재 미국 주식과 채권, 부동산이 버블 또는 고평가 구간이며 장기적으로 큰 조정 위험이 있다는 입장이다. 단기 1~3개월 방향은 명시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
as his opening comment Jeremy Grantham stated that the beauty of indexing is that you never miss an Amazon or apple and the disadvantage of indexing is that you never miss having a lot of overvalued stocks in one of the relatively uncommon bubbles such as what we have presently so there's some good news and some negative news if you can stomach the occasional 50-point drop of course certain fundamentals 30 years ago the market is mildly comical from time to time and it is justified by the consistent flow of dividends and earnings but nevertheless occurs it could take for you up to 20 years to get back into the game if you were caught in 1929 everything works out okay but you will not receive your money until 1955.
if you are harmed in 1974 you will not receive your money until 1987. then after a month or two of having it back you'll give it up again and the same thing happened in the year 2000 by 2010 you were still losing money so you have to be willing to write it out and some people believe they won't live long enough to take 10 15 and 20 wipeouts so for those who feel Brave and eager to try he has always thought that avoiding part of the agony may be a good idea they're simple because they're usually so extreme it is similar to how you know it is the Himalayas when you're in Northern India he means that when they come out of the plane and Source Skyward you can't miss them from 1928 to 1929 there was a huge rally so you can't ignore the price increase second just to make things easy the major bubbles have always tended to rise quicker and faster as they approach their beat and it's also a distinguishing feature third they have all been accompanied by large public displays of blatant insane Kanda where the headlines move from the financial page to the front page where they become the first few sentences of the Nightly News on the radio or television and they discuss the Market's new highs as well as what the Bitcoins of the era have done when there is a bubble it is best to have the bubble in a single targeted location in the year 2000 for example it was U.S growth that slowed not Global growth and real estate was extremely cheap as in less than the cost of construction the bonds were extremely inexpensive and inflation-protected funds had just been released yielding 4.2 percent even inside the market the value stocks were not too bad and the small stocks were not too bad and the small value was actually low enough that after the s p had gone down 50 percent what you want to avoid is Japan's behavior in 1989 Japan experienced the biggest bubble in history bigger than the south sea bubble in London real estate and the ancient narrative is that the ground beneath the empress Palace was worth more than the entire State of California we must commend the Japanese for avoiding despair throughout the previous decade however that was the final decade in which Japan genuinely Advanced for the decade they did not even go backward when you accept that kind of wealth boss you're in big trouble the housing market had a perfect three sigmas to 100 Year outlier bubble that had been historically quite stable so to get to that level it just had to increase by around 40 percent in two to three years which it did the stock market was not sensationally expensive but it was a large overpriced bull market it was not a bubble in and off itself but the housing market was as a result you had lost a huge investment in the Housing Industry as a whole is considerably riskier now that so many bore people are involved in buying and selling homes the middle class in particular earns a lot of money from housing but very little stock According to Jim Grant the bond market is the most overvalued it has ever been and rapes have never been lower in the history of mankind going back some 4 000 years we have the potential to become the U.S Equity Market's highest priced period although some may disagree he claims that the vast majority of bubble experts now rank this year as second only to the historic year of the year 2000.
and then there's real estate which has been largely off screen until just now according to some databases it's jumped 20 in the past year before the bubble American Homes typically sold for three times the average family's annual income after the bursting of the bubble Prices rose to about four and a half times income before falling back down furthermore we have reached the multiple of family income scene in 1906 at the height of the real estate boom increasing asset prices hurt most individuals severely when you have one you can have a good time with it retirees with nothing to do but sell off their assets would benefit greatly from them but it's a catastrophe for those who doesn't have it and for society as a whole because the yield on assets has decreased as their prices increased over the past quarter Century even without including taxes it only takes 48 years to amass one quarter of the wealth that the ordinary person in the world at the turn of the 20th century would have had if they had invested their money at a rate of six percent for those without Financial Security this is a catastrophe there is a very Elementary mathematical argument here that no one seems to grasp and that's the society as a whole is compounding considerably more slowly it is a drag on the economy and the production of well and making it appear as though everyone is getting wealthy that's also true of the stock market it is the same old Stocks by the way stock market bubbles pose a unique threat because investors can easily stretch the truth to justify a higher price looking back though we don't see any kind of Quantum Leap in long-term earning power in the year 2000 ultimately it was all in good fun he often boasts that profit margins are the economics disciplines most demonstrably mean reverting series in this case it would be a terrible idea to spend more to have Rising profit values crushed profit margins always rebound therefore you should compensate for them because profit margins will decline it is prudent to Discount exceptional ones aside from the obvious fact that the Market's price earnings ratio during the past 20 years is 70 greater than it was over the previous 100 years he will likely struggle to find anything else that is indifferent this is certainly not around number like 15.
the digits here are much larger over the past two decades corporate profit margins in the United States have grown by a stunning 30 percent that means you've undergone some major changes you would assume there is if you read the newspaper or listen to the news but there isn't if you run a correlation between the countries that do well and the Personnel who work there past countries with rapid growth rates have underachieved to a small degree even though South Korea and China currently have the fastest growing economies in the world this does not necessarily translate to higher stock market returns indeed a modest negative link emerges when you plant them all together over the past Century slower growing countries tend to fare slightly better in international terrain how profitable you are is more important than how quickly you grow to provide a return specifically he believes that the rapid economic development in countries like China and India is an acceptable Criterion of economic sham have you been able to lift any of your country's destitute into the middle class how would you characterize that typical way of life where does one typically stand in terms of educational attainment the Chinese deserve credit for this the success the Chinese have had in educating their ordinary Workforce should give us pause they are not only one-third or one-fourth as expensive as the United States but they are also more proficient in fundamental quantitative procedures as seen by their latest test scores which are greater than those of the United States he believes capitalism outperforms other top-down economic systems in millions of ways if its long-term capitalism it accomplishes one of two things poorly their discount rate makes 20-year events irrelevant and Chinese solve them better climate change in population are the biggest threats today Jeremy grantham's mainly worry about American Business and Society is the rise of corporate power in politics and monopolies and last to employees unions and differences in income and is the 28th best Century out of 20.
most unequal society and how quickly you can move from one class to another in this terrible time why wouldn't workers be upset but don't you think that capitalism is at its peak it is the whole dominance when people from a certain industry are put in charge of the regulatory body that keeps drug companies and fossil fuel companies from hurting the public they are owned by companies these waves are a sign of a good Society you Embrace capitalism in 1880 worker capitalism was in charge of the 90th Century then two Wars and a depression happened from 1945 to 1975 everyone gained from productivity pensions began the workers made huge advisors the average person's education got better and the GDP was high after 1985 the power of Corporations grew steadily when the dust settles it's evident that these Innovations benefited a small group of exceptionally talented people who went on to start companies that would go on to amass tens of billions of dollars within a decade and most workers don't even appear to care about them consider the consequences of Jeremy grantham's presentation your feedback is welcome in the space provided below we appreciate it a lot for more videos on this topic stay tuned foreign
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