저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 캐시 우드는 혁신 플랫폼 확산으로 향후 5~10년간 고성장과 인플레이션 후 디플레이션 국면이 반복될 것이라 본다. 거시 배경: 코로나 이후 상황이 향후 5~10년간 반복될 수 있으며, 금리 인하와 인플레이션 둔화 시기에 진실(혁신)이 승리한다고 주장. 역사적 비유: 1920년대 전후 스페인 독감·전쟁 이후 인플레이션이 급락했고, 이후 혁신이 부상한 '광란의 20년대'를 예로 듦. 당시처럼 금리와 인플레이션이 낮아지는 시기가 투자 적기라고 봄. 다섯 가지 혁신 플랫폼: 다중오믹스 시퀀싱(DNA·RNA·단백질·메틸화), 로봇(산업용 로봇 가격 하락·인력 부족), 에너지 저장, AI(챗GPT 등 생성형 AI의 빠른 발전), 블록체인. 2020년 분석에서 이 플랫폼들의 공개주식 시장 가치는 약 14조 달러로 추정되었고, 현재 약 7조 달러로 증가. 유전체 비용: 2003년 전체 인간 게놈 시퀀싱 27억 달러 → 현재 약 500달러 수준, 향후 100~200달러 목표. 성장률 전망: 2030년 기준 연평균 성장률 중간값 제시. 1번 플랫폼(혁신 자체)은 3%가 낙관적일 수 있다고 봄. 시장 하락으로 상위 성장률 구간이 줄고 하위 구간이 확대되어 기회가 늘었다고 평가. 융합과 S커브: 기술 간 수렴(S커브가 S커브를 먹여 살림)이 성장률 확대의 핵심 요인. 자율주행 택시(GM 크루즈 사례), 로봇, AI, 유전자 편집(CRISPR)의 결합이 질병 치료와 대규모 기회를 만든다고 주장. 리스크·조건: 로봇 산업은 에너지 저장 등 인프라 비용이 필요하며, 우크라이나 사태 등 에너지 위기가 전기차·대체 에너지 수요를 촉진한다고 언급. 기술 발전 속도가 예상을 앞지른다는 낙관적 전제에 기반. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 혁신 플랫폼 중심의 성장 지속을 확신. 구체적 단기 가격 목표는 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Kathy Wood believes that what we saw in the aftermath of kovid will be repeated not just for a one year period but for the next 5-10 years as well Kathy would said that truth wins out when interest rates come down and inflate following inflation and she said that the truth will win out when interest rates come down and inflate following inflation therefore in order to set the stage for this let's quickly go through the timeline for Innovation this is the history of invention and we are currently living during a historical period that is unlike any other in all of history a graph that was created by our chief futurist Brett Winton based on his consultations with academics and studies conducted by academics these Innovations have been the most really game-changing ones throughout the course of history you will also observe that prior to the present day there has only been one other instance in which we've witnessed the development of three large and multiple Innovation platforms at the same time it was near the beginning of the 1900s it was the automobile electricity and a telephone that changed everything the transformation changed the world and believe it or not we are going through a period that is quite like what we were going through back then there was a pandemic at the time and it was referred to as the Spanish Flu during that period there was a war it was during the first world war those difficulties were a lot more severe than the issues we face right now inflation reached its highest point of 24 in June of 1920 and then dropped within one year to minus 15 percent in June of 21.
however what actually occurred was that Innovation took off and as a result inflation and after making it through that very difficult time we found ourselves in what was known as The Roaring Twenties back in those days because inflation and interest rates were beginning to decline this was an excellent time to make any form of investment including those in the stock market at the moment five of our Innovation platforms are undergoing development all at once again never happened in history and the scenes for all of them were so during the 20 years that ended in the Tekken Telecom bubble now the tech and Telecom bubble is the first time that a lot of investors heard this concept of exponential growth and they bought into the dream however the problem was that back then the Technologies weren't ready and even if they weren't even close to being ready the expenses were prohibitively expensive it wasn't until 2006 that AWS gave us access to the cloud deep learning did not bring forth the significant advances in artificial intelligence that were anticipated until 2012.
in the case of DNA sequencing back in 2003 when the first entire Human Genome was sequenced it took 2.7 billion dollars and 13 years of processing power to sequence just one Geno this was the first time that the entire Human Genome had been sequenced it would have been unfeasible to afford even if prices had already dropped by 75 percent the following day or the following year the cost was just too high when they first started it cost 2.7 billion dollars to sequence the Genome of a single individual today that same sequence costs only 500 and a few hours of computer power which according to two different businesses Illumina and Altima will be either 100 or 200 the following year will cost you either of those amounts now that Technologies are mature enough and the prices are competitive enough we believe that we are prepared to face the public that is very important the question now is what exactly are these five platforms DNA sequencing is now more accurately referred to as multi-mix sequencing due to the fact that involves more than simply DNA RNA and proteins are both involved it is a process called methylation and it's a pretty Advanced one however the prospect is really enticing as a result of these advancements we will eventually be able to cure diseases and in point of fact we've already got one and she's going to get a really significant breakthrough in the very last week the price of Robotics industrial robots is falling by a significant margin we are experiencing a lack of workers and Innovation is the key to finding Solutions right now there is an exponential rise in the demand for robots she discussed the situation in Ukraine which is currently in a state of Crisis energy storage as a result of the tragedy as well as the rise in the price of oil consumers preferences are shifting away from tradition and to word Innovation but also because these are superior automobiles in general they have a lower impact on the surrounding ecosystem the recent developments in artificial intelligence continue to surprise researchers even at this late stage they are attempting to see as far into the future as we can and as a result we are witnessing breakthroughs that we anticipated would occur in 5 or 10 years occurring in as little as 6 months or one year today she is unsure whether any of you have been informed about chat GPT or not this gpt3 variant was just made available and it was just released you can basically talk to it prompt it and say things like write me an essay on disruptive innovation as Kathy Wood would characterize it it will comply with your requests during a brainstorming session they perform an exercise and in fewer than three seconds we were able to determine that it was quite good because it's great the internet and they have a lot of it they are completely open about all of their findings therefore the conversation for gp3 had a lot going on in it therefore they believe that AI will bring about a revolution that is going to be significantly more extensive than what they imagine even one year ago when they were solely focused on Innovative disruption and lastly there is the technology of blockchain in the year of 2020 research was conducted to determine the level of productivity that may be expected from each of these five Innovation platforms you may also view the growth rates that they calculated for the business a truly transformative breakthrough in the public equities markets was valued at approximately 14 trillion dollars at the time which was significantly less than 10 percent of the overall Global public Equity Market over the course of the past year that number has increased to 7 trillion what if anything has changed about the lower end of 2030.
nothing in point of fact those circles are much larger now than we had previously assumed and one of the primary reasons for this is the rise of artificial intelligence in order for you to get an idea of the growth rates that we anticipate these are compound annual growth rates that are somewhere in the middle and they have been increasing the very first one has nothing to do with anything other than innovation we believe that the rate of growth will be quite sluggish and we also believe that there will be a lot of disruption and this intermediation in the conventional order of the world so we believe that three percent may be too optimistic however our trust in those other growth rates has improved as a result of the fact that the top circles have decreased as a result of the decline in the markets while the bottom circles have actually expanded therefore there are more opportunities and the potential for bigger growth rates we believe that the convergence between and across Technologies is one of the primary contributors to those growth rates having a bigger potential for expansion they have these s-curves feeding s-curves feeding s-curves just to give you a couple of instances of how this works therefore exponential growth compounds over time taxi platforms that operate autonomously they were observing evidence that supported the premise she recently went for a ride in one of cruise automations cars in San Francisco and she thought it was incredible Cruise automation is GM's offering of driverless vehicles in that City platforms for driverless taxis represent the coming together of three of our most important platforms robots including autonomous cars are example of this category because of their need for energy storage these cars will be electric gas powered Automobiles and artificial intelligence both have a higher total cost of ownership than what is now available they will be driven by artificial intelligence therefore once more and at the s-curves that are feeding one another One S curve is feeding another escort we believe that this will lead to enormous opportunities one further illustration can be found in a field of healthcare one of the technologies that they have is called multi-amic sequencing and another is artificial intelligence these two things came together alongside a technique that was made attainable as a result of DNA sequencing crispr cs9 or Gene editing in general these three pillars are going to not only usher in a period of unprecedented opportunity for expansion but they are also going to put an end to illness are you finding that the pieces of information presented here are assisting you in determining how you should handle your finances and how things that are happening in our economy are creating change in your mindset if that's the case we'd love to hear your comments on how you saw and what you saw in this video write down your thoughts and provide feedback on what our presenter Miss Kathy Wood is sharing with us in the comment section box down below it brings a smile to our faces to learn that this is of assistance to you thank you foreign
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