저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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결론: 미국 증시는 모멘텀 장세 후기라 18개월 내 급락 가능성이 커 당분간 회피하고, 분산 투자와 현금·금 중심의 바벨 배분을 유지하며 다음 급락 때 주식을 매수할 기회를 기다려야 한다. 미국 주식 시장: S&P500의 수익률이 나머지 세계를 압도했으나 최근 수년간 S&P500 상위 6개 종목을 제외한 494개 종목은 수익이 거의 없다. 그는 미국 주식을 권하지 않지만 보유한다면 상위 6종목만 보유하고 출구 버튼에 손을 올려두라고 말한다. 시장은 100% 모멘텀 기반이라 가장 위험하다고 평가했다. 하락 전망: 1999년 9월 30일 나스닥에 부정적 입장을 냈던 사례를 언급하며, 현재가 모멘텀 장세의 매우 후기 단계라 18개월 안에 크게 꺾일 것으로 본다. 다음 대폭락 때 미국이 가장 부진한 시장이 될 것이며 달러 약세가 이에 크게 관여한다고 예상한다. 달러 기반 투자는 불리하다는 전제로 미국 외 분산을 권한다. 일본·유럽에 대한 언급도 포함. 자산 배분: 영구 포트폴리오(주식·고품질 채권·현금·금 각 25%) 개념을 지지한다. 금 25%와 현금 25%는 극단적 반대 위험에 대비한 바벨 전략으로 타당하다고 본다. 주식 25%는 명목가치 방어 차원에서 유지하되 현 수준에서는 이 정도가 감당 한도이며, 큰 조정이 오면 주식을 상당히 더 사겠다고 한다. 디플레이션 vs 인플레이션: 단기적으로는 재택근무에 따른 사무실·출장·중간관리자 임금 하락, 생활비 낮은 지역 이주 등으로 임금 디플레이션이 강할 것으로 본다. 장기적으로는 연준 부채의 법정통화화와 직접 현금 지급이 이뤄지면 인플레이션이 올 수 있다고 본다(본인은 장기 인플레이션론자). 복지제도가 사실상 기본소득 역할을 해왔다는 주장도 덧붙임. 리스크: 모멘텀이 더 길게 갈 수 있다는 점을 인정하며, 기회가 올 시점은 2년 또는 18개월 내일 수 있다고 전망한다. 유동성 확보를 위해 대기하는 전략이 핵심이다. 출연자 전망: Gundlach는 미국 주식 단기 하락(18개월 내), 달러 약세, 미국 증시 상대 부진을 예상하며 현금·금 보유와 주식 저점 매수 대기를 권한다.
다듬은 글
probably the most frustrating allocation that many investors and pools have made that has not paid off is recognition that the returns of the united states stock market let's say the s p 500 have just been so incredibly dominant versus the rest of the world and that those returns are really for the last couple of years only in the s p six the s p 494 have no return at all over that time period and so i've got this kind of strange advice for people i say if you want to own u.s stocks you should own those six knowing that you're going to take a bloodbath if you overstay your welcome but it is a 100 percent momentum based market the most dangerous type of market in the world i mean i turned negative on the nasdaq uh september 30th of 1999.
i was really negative of course in the fourth quarter of 1999 it went up 80 percent but one year later it was down 50 from the september 30th level and i feel like we're in that type of an environment so if you're going to own u.s stocks which i don't recommend but if you want to own them i think the only way to go is those six and you just gotta have your finger on the exit button pretty pretty close by but i think that's your only chance of making money and yet i don't want anything to do with it but you know i just i just think we're in late my thinking is we're in late stage very late stage of this momentum market it can always continue longer than you think possible but i do think that within 18 months it's going to crack pretty hard and so i think that you want to be avoiding it for the time being and i think when the next big meltdown happens i think the u.s is going to be the worst performing market actually and they'll have a lot to do with the dollar weakening and so i know a lot of people have diversified out of the u.s on valuation reasons and on just relative performance differentials which are really kind of mind-blowing how well the us has done versus you know i mean japan hasn't done anything for forever europe's not doing anything but you know i i do think that you're going to be not well served in dollar-based investments which would include the u.s and you know you don't have to do it today necessarily because it really needs a rollover to start getting going but i do think that diversifying away makes a lot of sense so there's a there's something that was very popular and it gained a lot of money a lot of aum it was called the permanent portfolio and it was very simple concept i think it had four things equal weighted i think it was stocks you know high quality bonds cash and gold and i think they were one-fourth each and it got very uh successful because there was a window there in the aftermath of global financial crisis that did really well that mix of assets and then it fell on hard times when stocks really got going and the aum in that particular permanent portfolio mutual fund collapsed but i think that's a good investment right now i think we have such potential tail risk of outcomes such a dispersed uh potential outcomes that you really need to have this kind of barbelled asset allocation concept so i actually think owning 25 gold isn't crazy right now nor do i think owning 25 cash isn't crazy they're kind of the opposites nor do i i also don't think 25 stocks is crazy because one thing about a potential inflationary environment is stocks can add a zero to their prices you might not gain in real purchasing power but you can keep going with the nominal value that has some sort of inflation protection and you know the high quality bonds uh maybe you're supposed to just have two two doses of cash instead of that because the high-quality bonds the yield is not much different than zero i i am ultimately an inflation fearing person but in the short term i do not think there's any inflation i i think what's happened this year is pretty clearly deflationary and particularly i think wage uh white collar wage deflation is going to be pretty intense i mean one thing about work from home is it gives you a different prism through which to analyze your business and the way businesses operate and i'm pretty sure just about every business owner and ceo has been made aware of ways of working more efficiently of remotely or maybe they can cost cut by moving some operations to other places like my it department has said to me there's really no reason for us ever to go back in the office there's no reason for because they just they just live on the the 16th floor of our building it off in a corner you never see them they're just behind a closed door typing away they can so easily do that at home why do we need that office space that's clearly deflationary what about what about the traveling salesman that can't travel right now i mean i think most businesses are probably thinking do i really need this many traveling salesmen no so there's going to be a lot of deflation in the wages of traveling salesmen and a lot of other middle managers i think are going to learn that people have figured out that all they're doing is watching people work that report to them and not really doing any work and maybe you don't need so much middle management i think all of this is deflationary what if somebody moves they're tired of all the needles on the sidewalk in san francisco and they decide they want to go to boise well they don't have to pay him as much right i mean the cost of living is lower that's deflationary and if somebody who felt at risk of losing their job in march and april they're probably still fearful of an event of job insecurity i think that they're going to take a pay cut rather than than a pink slip so i i do think that there's a lot of deflationary things weirdly as lacy hunt points out so academically correctly one weird thing about the deficit is it really isn't inflationary it's not inflationary until you start actually declaring the liabilities of the federal reserve to be legal tender and actually giving money to people which we're starting to do that's why i'm ultimately an inflationist i when i used to give speeches when there used to be gatherings of people i used to routinely say i know how to get inflation by five o'clock this afternoon literally we have an announcement from the treasury department that every bank account in america is going to have a one billion dollar deposit at 4 59 this afternoon that will cause inflation because if we don't have inflation the lines at the ferrari dealers would be something to behold if you gave everybody a billion dollars at 4 59 this afternoon so you can do it there just has to be the true desire the true commitment to doing it and obviously we've been ramping up this procedure ever since the global financial crisis of giving money to people actually you know it's it's kind of comical how people talk about modern monetary theory or universal basic income is some wacky idea we've been doing it since the 60s i mean not to the whole population but what do you think welfare is it's universal basic income but it's not universal it's just for a certain subset of the population and it hasn't exactly solved the problems in fact in my view it's made them much worse you know so you can get inflation but you have to you have to really really want it i like that permanent portfolio concept i'm going to stay there i want massive diversification i'm worried about deflation and so cash sounds good i'm worried about inflationary response so gold sounds good i don't like the dollar in any case and so at a pullback i would uh substantially with a big big pullback i would substantially buy stocks but at this level i think 25 percent is really basically all i can stomach uh in in the stock market so it's just this kind of four pillared uh highly diversified thing and you know the other thing is i don't i feel like we said earlier the opportunities that are really good are very rare and i want to have liquidity when the next one comes because i think it's coming in a couple of years not 20 years maybe five years at the very outside but maybe very well two years or 18 months and so the trade is to wait for that trade
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