Ray Dalio "Investors Need To Be Prepared"

요약 보기

결론: 코로나 이후 세계는 부채·화폐 증발과 미중 갈등으로 구조적 변화기에 들어섰으며, 분산·유동성·차별화를 핵심 포트폴리오 원칙으로 삼아야 한다. 구조적 배경: 코로나는 기존 취약점을 드러낸 스트레스 테스트이며, 일부는 장기간 망가지고 일부는 근본적으로 바뀐다. 부의 격차: 부유층·빈곤층, 좋은 재무제표 보유자와 그렇지 않은 자 사이의 격차가 핵심 특징이며 이는 좌우 정치 갈등을 키울 것이다. 통화·신용 변화: 제로금리 이후 전통적 통화정책이 한계에 부딪혔고, 양적완화는 정작 필요한 사람에게 전달되지 않았다. 이제 정부가 직접 차입해 자금을 배분하고 중앙은행이 자산을 매입하는 시대로 들어가 화폐 가치와 기축통화 지위에 영향을 줄 것이다. 역사적 비교: 지난 500년간 기축통화의 흥망을 연구했으며, 현재는 1차대전 전·2차대전 전과 유사한 세계질서 변화기다. 1930~45년 이후 이만큼 큰 부 격차는 없었고, 중국의 부상과 기존 패권의 충돌이 무역·기술·지정학·자본 전쟁으로 번지며 군사 충돌 가능성까지 있다. 포트폴리오 원칙 세 가지: 첫째 분산(통화·자산군·국가 분산, 기축통화 노출 점검), 둘째 유동성(상황 변화에 대응할 유연성), 셋째 차별화(질서 있게 번영하는 세계와 파산·무질서에 빠지는 세계를 구분). 재무제표·부채 대비 자산, 화폐 발행과 분배 장치에 가까운지, 사회·정치 질서가 안정적인지가 기준이다. 밸류에이션: 중앙은행의 유동성 공급으로 채권 시장 배수가 100배 수준까지 올라갔고, 주식 PER을 채권 배수와 비교해야 한다. 차입 환경이 레버리지를 부추기며 자금 흐름을 바꾸고 있다. 투자 조언: 채권과 현금을 보유하지 말 것을 권하며, 과거의 배수 잣대로 현재 고평가를 판단하지 말라고 한다. 자금 흐름은 중국 시장 개방과 맞물려 재편되고 있다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. i think that there were vulnerabilities that existed under the system and the covid is a stress test and it'll go away but there'll be some things that are broken for a long time and then there's some things that are profoundly changed i think first of all the financial gaps between entities is clear the rich the poor those who have good income statements and good balance sheets in those has been a defining characteristics some of those will be broken and it has enormous political consequences uh the left and the right will be i think in greater conflict and so that issue has also been connected to the changes in money and credit in other words before that uh interest rates hit zero and there was not classic monetary policy and also when there was qe it didn't pass through to those who needed the money the most and we're now we're in a new era in which there's going to be government borrowing money and directing that money more than the normal capital markets and central banks buying money and that is going to have a profound impact on the value of money probably reserve currencies and so on and then related to that is it's a defining moment in terms of the strong and the weak which for example china has come out of this very well and it's going to change the nature of capital flows i think so i think that it'll have political and wealth implications that will be very important and will be clarified over the next i think two years i think that this is a good summary i think when i look at history i've studied the rise and decline of reserve currencies over the last 500 years and this is a moment of a change in the world order very similar to that which happened prior to world war one prior to world war ii an analogous period there's large wealth gaps and income gaps and opportunity gaps that exist there's no time that has been this large since the 1930s at the same time monetary policy and debt policies in which when you have a zero interest rate there needs to be the expansion of debt and that monetization of debt that last time that happened like this to this great was 1930 to 45 period and the rising power of china challenging an existing power in its competitions the last time that existed was in the 1930s to 45 period there are struggles fights over wealth and political power within countries and then between countries that confrontation that issue about how to deal with that whether it's in a peaceful way or in a confrontational way within countries like our political divide and our social divide that exists in the united states and in many countries or between countries such as the conflicts that exist between the united states world order and the chinese rise in which there's a trade war a technology war a geopolitical war and even a capital war now and then there's military conflict we i believe are coming into a more challenging environment because of the nature of how this happens over and over again through history in these cycles so i think that this is a defining moment of how we're going to be with each other internally within countries and externally but we're still going to have to face the problems of how do you create money and credit and how do you get it into the hands of those people who need it most so i think that the summary is completely right and i hope that we follow that better direction i'd like to emphasize the portfolio because i think that's probably most relevant to other people there's a period of i think great uncertainty and great risk and so i think there are three words diversification liquidity and then differentiation we want to make sure that our investors are not just concentrated in some of the traditional markets so diversification of how to do that well can reduce risk without reducing opportunity and that means currency diversification including the reserve currencies how much exposure is to the reserve currencies but it means currency diversification asset class diversification country diversification and that should be the starting point of portfolios in terms of liquidity it allows you the flexibility to change as circumstances change and differentiation is the most important consideration now there are two different worlds there are worlds that will be orderly and will prosper in this kind of an environment and you could see it when that differentiation versus other worlds and markets related to that that will be bankrupt and disorderly that kind of differentiation is important as far as the business goes we have you know the different location considerations and long relationships that we're building on you could see it it's reflected in the income statements in balance sheet every individual every company every country how well they are depends on how much their income is relative to their expenses and how much their assets are relative to their liabilities so you can see radical differences in the financial consequences of that second the proximity to those who are printing and distributing money are you a recipient of that for example a lot of the third world is not a recipient of that and is not in good financial situations and then there is order political and also social order so it when you could see it differentiated in the countries that are controlling the virus and behaving orderly and well together so you could see those differentiations reflected in the markets behavior and you can also see it reflected in the political and social conditions you know when we look at interest rate market we look at the earnings yield when we look at stocks and we look at pes they're they're basically yields and the capacity of central banks to print money and buy financial assets has essentially let the bond market to go to multiples that are somewhere between 100 times you know you put a dollar out and you'll get your money back in 100 years so it's as a hundred time multiple you have to compare stock multiples to bond multiples and so the capacity of central banks to put liquidity into the system and to have that liquidity go to produce high multiples is very uh real it also changes the economics of borrowing in other words if you can find something that makes anything more than a zero or they're going to make money so that encourages the leveraging and the changes so the financial flows that we're seeing the market behavior is reflective of that in my opinion don't own bonds and don't own cash because they're producing a lot of debt and producing a lot of money to fund it and so that's changing the nature of capital flows it's also changing how those flows go to china in terms of the comparison of that market particularly as it opens up so i think it's behaving sensibly but don't use old multiples as reflections of the limitations of what's expensive