저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 미국 중심으로 2021년 강한 경기 회복과 주식시장 강세를 예상하며, 채권보다 주식을 선호한다. 팬데믹 영향: 팬데믹은 재무구조가 나쁘고 기술력이 떨어지는 중소기업에 타격을 줬고, 자본력이 탄탄한 대형 기업은 시장 점유율을 확대했다. S&P 500은 미국 내 가장 지배적인 500개 기업을 대표하며 전체 경제를 대변하지는 않는다고 설명했다. 기업 사례: 스타벅스는 경쟁사 감소의 수혜를 받을 것으로 보았고, 힐튼은 브랜드·로열티 프로그램을 통해 독립 호텔 대비 시장 점유율을 높일 것으로 전망했다. 힐튼은 기업 간접비를 25~30% 절감한 것으로 언급됐다. 경기 전망: 단기적으로는 향후 90~120일간 바이러스 충격이 크지만, 복수의 백신 성공으로 2021년 하반기에는 팬데믹에서 대부분 벗어날 것으로 예상했다. 2021년 2분기 후반~4분기부터 강한 회복이 시작되고, 저금리 환경과 가계 저축 축적으로 소비·투자 회복이 뒷받침될 것으로 봤다. 정책 환경: 새 행정부가 경기 회복에 관심이 크고, 재닛 옐런이 연준을 이끌면서 고용과 경제에 우호적인 저금리 기조가 예상된다고 언급했다. 은행 자본도 충분하다고 평가했다. 투자 철학: 분산은 무지에 대한 보호이며, 자신들은 10개 안팎의 최고 우량 기업에 장기(수년~십수년) 집중 투자하는 방식을 택한다고 설명했다. 자산의 87%가 영구자본 보유 종목이며, 투자 기업은 대부분 투자등급 강한 재무구조와 지배적 시장 지위를 가진 곳이다. 영국: 브렉시트 불확실성이 해소되면 영국 경제에도 긍정적일 것으로 보았다. 채권 및 대안: 현재 금리 수준에서 채권 매수에 부정적이다. 30년물 국채 수익률 1.3%에 비해, 로우스(PER 약 18배, 이익수익률 약 5.5%)가 더 매력적이라고 비교했다. 주식이 채권 대비 우월한 대안이며, 금리는 제로 부근에서 제한되어 마이너스로 베팅하는 것은 단기 거래라고 봤다. 비트코인은 복잡한 자산으로 언급하며 선호 대상으로 제시하지 않았다. 리스크: 단기 바이러스 확산, 백신 공급 및 접종 속도, 경기 회복 지연 가능성이 주요 위험 요인이다. 출연자 전망: 2021년 강한 주식시장 가능성이 높다고 전망했다.
다듬은 글
so i'll give you a kind of a u.s centric perspective and uh and some of it i think applies globally you know the stock market as i like to say does not is not a fair representation of the global economy it's an important reflection of global economy but it doesn't represent the smaller less well-capitalized less well technologically enabled companies think private family-owned you know smaller up-and-coming businesses the s p 500 for example represents probably the 500 most dominant companies in the us in some cases in the world what covett has done and what the pandemic has done is it's really disrupted you know the less you know the companies with bad balance sheets without being technologically enabled have been impaired many of them unfortunately the smaller ones have gone out of business whereas the well-capitalized dominant companies have actually improved their market position so you know surviving a pandemic or having the ability to provide pandemic puts you in a strong competitive position coming out of it and so you think simple example starbucks is a significant holding think about how many fewer coffee shops they're going to be competing against one of their principal competitors in china a company called luken that was building you know very large number of stores every year turned out to have been a fraud and the tide rolls out you see who's swimming naked so to speak so same thing's really true for hilton uh hilton is a really a not a hotel company as much of it as a brand where they where they sell their ip and their brand and their marketing and their you know their millions of customers in a loyalty program to hotels around the world well it's probably more important today for a hotel to have an affiliation with the top brand so the customer can feel comfortable about their for example their cleanliness standards you know the smaller independent hotel is going to be more challenged so we think you know the hiltons of the world are going to take more market share and so i do think you know we are set up for a very strong recovery in 2021 i think the virus is going to be frightening and a disaster for the next call it 90 120 days so that's the big negative news in the short term but we have you know multiple successful vaccines and probably more coming and i think by the second half of next year will be you know probably out of the pandemic for the most part uh in the first you know kind of what you might call first world and i think um you'll be you know you have a new president coming in uh who's going to be very concerned about the economic recoveries uh you're going to have you have janet yellen now running the fed who's going to be you know i think quite supportive of employment in the economy so you can expect low interest rates you have you know well capitalized banks and then you have a large build-up of savings on the part of uh you know americans and really globally as people haven't spent haven't gone out to eat they haven't gone out to theater they haven't gone to a movie they haven't gotten on a plane uh and and i would say animal spirits are building up i don't know about you but i am the moment i first can actually travel and go places so i think you're going to see a huge recovery even in business you know if you're any kind of business you haven't been to see your clients or customers one of the first things you should be doing is getting on a plane and going to see all your you know your relationships because if you know your competitor is going to be doing and uh so i think you're going to see a fairly rapid recovery beginning sometime late q2 q3 q4 low interest rate environment a ton of savings to be deployed it could be pretty you know favorable and then you have a lot of companies that use the crisis to kind of tighten up their cost structure you know hilton cut i think something like 25 to 30 percent of their corporate overhead cost and you know success does breed a certain looseness with expenses and a crisis does the opposite you can have some lean leaned up companies coming out into a very strong environment so i think there's a pretty good chance for a very strong uh stock market next year so so buffett describes uh he says diversification is protection against ignorance so if you don't know what you own you want to own a lot of things our business is different you know we own 10 things um we tend to own them for years we have some holdings we've owned for a dozen years some eight years uh four years six years the whole goal behind getting permanent capital is we never wanted to be forced to sell something because of investor capital flows we're now in that position as 87 of our assets are in person square holdings so one we have the time to do our homework we might identify one or possibly two new investments a year uh you know second of course we these are businesses we've gotten to know quite well over time but most importantly we've selected businesses for their inherent robustness right so almost all of our companies are strong investment grade companies so there's not a balance sheet threat to the businesses we own they tend to be very dominant whether it's hilton or starbucks in their respective uh industries so they're an important dominant large cap business they're in businesses that we can understand and they're businesses that we think are not at great risk of disruption and that we spend a lot of our big part of our job is saying how we're looking for the highest quality businesses in the world and so if you own a you know 10 stocks that were sensitive to energy prices or interest rates or regulatory risks or they had you know highly levered then you've got enormous risk if you own 10 incredible businesses with strong balance sheets and excellent management teams and you're a large influence of shareholders you can you know encourage them to do smart things and you can discourage them or prevent them from doing things that would be destructive you're actually better off owning a concentrated portfolio and owning the 10 best things you can find and even owning 20 things where ideas 11 through 20 are not going to be as good as ideas 1 through 10.
but the ambition is to own the greatest businesses in the world own businesses we can own for a decade or more and help them operate and improve their businesses over time you know i would say i'm not a domain expert on the on the uk i certainly enjoy coming to the uk as a tourist and you know obviously uh occasionally on business but i i'm not sure i could give you a particularly keen insight all of that being said all the same things i said about the us are really true in the uk and and you know you didn't have the same election uncertainty we did with the president i think the brexit uncertainty is kind of the same thing so i think brexit being resolved frankly one way or another will lift a cloud of uncertainty and then you have the same you know i assume the brits have the same animal spirits we do in terms of getting out and and going to the pub and going for dinner and getting on a plane and traveling and so i think you're going to see a global economic recovery and a reduction in uncertainty and the combination of those things should be good for stocks i'm not a fan of buying you know bonds of any kind at this at current interest rate levels um you know you think about a a long-term instrument you know today the 30-year treasury is at 1.3 percent right it's you know when we think about a company uh you know so for example lowe's is trading at something like 18 times earnings if you flip over the pe multiple you know that's you know something north of a five percent you know let's call it a five and a half percent earnings yield which would you rather own lows at a five and a half percent earnings yield where that yield is going to grow at a pretty high rate we think you know mid teens or higher rate for the foreseeable future then buy a company that's generating an earnings yield of 1.3 percent and stuck there for 30 years and there's no potential for upside and that that's the the bond equivalent and so i think equities are by far the superior alternative um you know what are people looking at they're investing in bitcoin um which is a much more complicated you know question um but i feel you know i feel very comfortable owning 10 phenomenal businesses if the stock market shut for 10 years um and we woke up 10 years from now those companies will be a lot more valuable and uh you can't say the same thing about bonds you know i do i do think interest rates are largely bounded by zero uh not entirely bounded by zero but uh you know betting on rates going negative is a short-term trade not a long-term one
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