저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 인플레이션 우려로 금·은 매수 강력 권고, 무역적자는 버블 신호이며 달러 붕괴 예상. 시장 동향: 장기금리 급등 속 금·은 가격 급락(금 약 20달러, 은 40~50센트 하락), 원자재(원유·목재 등)는 상승. 목재는 사상 최고가, 2020년 3~4월 저점 대비 4배, 코로나 이전 대비 약 3배. 금·은 부진 원인 분석: 월가가 금리 인상을 예상해 귀금속을 매도 중이며 경기민감 원자재와 달리 통화금속으로 분류해 반응. 조작설과 비트코인이 금을 대체한다는 설명은 모두 부정. 인플레이션 전망: 시장은 연준이 인플레이션을 잡을 수 있다고 믿지만, 연준은 싸우지 않고 항복해 인플레이션이 기본적으로 승리할 것. 장기금리는 2% 이상으로 더 오를 것이며 채권은 약세. 금·은 투자 권고: 급등일이 언제 올지 모르므로 지금 완전 투자. 실물 금·은 매수(보관 우려 시 제3자 보관 또는 실물 인수), 레버리지 효과를 위해 금광주 투자. 상방 위험 대비 수익 기대가 크다고 주장하며 자신의 펀드(Euro Pacific Gold Fund, 운용자 Adrian Day) 언급. 무역적자: 3월 상품 무역적자 906억 달러(사상 최대), 4·5월 경신 및 연내 월 1000억 달러 돌파 전망. 유가 배럴당 65달러에서 100달러 가능성 언급, 미국이 순수입국이 되어 적자 확대. 무역적자 해석: 언론은 강한 경기의 증거로 보지만, 실제로는 생산 능력 약화와 연준 발행 자금으로 소비하는 버블 경제의 증거. 달러 전망: 전 세계가 달러를 받고 상품을 수출하는 구조는 지속되기 어려워 달러 붕괴 불가피. 소비 쇼핑 붐도 종료될 것. 리스크: 금·은 단기 급락 가능성 및 장기 투자 시점 불확실성 언급. 금광주는 레버리지로 상승 여력이 크다고 주장.
다듬은 글
you know first talking about the markets even though the stock market was strong it had some headwinds earlier in the day from a run-up in long-term interest rates we had a spike in yields early this morning in reaction probably to the economic data the stock market seemed to shrug it off but not so the gold market gold prices tanked about 20 early this morning silver prices were down i think 40 or 50 cents those markets seem to be the most impacted although other commodity prices continued to rise look at the price of oil up another dollar a barrel today or just over a dollar but not just oil commodities across the board continue to move lumber lumber prices up another two and a half percent today hitting a new all-time record high in fact lumber prices from where they were last year are up four-fold they've quadrupled in price in a year now yes you're comparing it to a very depressed level that existed briefly in march and april as we locked down and everything collapsed but even if you look back to where lumber prices before anybody had even heard of covet 19 if you look at where the price of lumber was then and compare it to it now you're still looking at a triple in the price of lumber so you can't look at that and say well it's all based on comparisons with these artificially low benchmarks because i'm ignoring that artificially low benchmark and just comparing the price of lumber today to where the lumber was before anybody heard of covid and the reality is there's no end in sight to this rally as long as the fed keeps printing money and in fact as long as the fed keeps interest rates anchored at zero which means mortgage rates stay low housing demand is going to continue even in the face of rising lumber prices so all that means is houses are going to be more expensive to build therefore they're going to be more expensive to buy that means people are going to have to take on even more debt but prices are going to keep on going up and a lot of the increase in commodity prices is of course what is driving the pickup in bond yields because the markets are still convinced despite what jerome powell is reassuring the markets the markets still believe that the fed is going to be forced to raise interest rates much sooner than it is telegraphing it will and it is pricing those expectations into the gold and silver market because everybody on wall street believes that rising interest rates are bad for gold and bad for silver and so they are selling gold and silver now in anticipation of higher interest rates later but they're not selling other commodities for the same reason because they're looking at other commodities and thinking that they're economically sensitive and so they're thinking we've got this booming economy so that's great for lumber that's great for copper that's great for all these other commodities but it's not good for gold and silver because those are monetary metals and so they're going to respond to the higher interest rates that the fed is forced to impose to cool down this hot economy so ironically the commodities that you would expect would benefit most from inflation gold and silver are the ones that are benefiting least some people say it's manipulation government or banks are manipulating the price of gold and silver after all why else wouldn't it be rising there's all this money printing there's you know huge budget deficits the price of all these other commodities are going up what would explain gold and silver not going up it must be manipulation then you have the bitcoin crowd saying you see we told you so the reason gold isn't going up is because no one cares about gold bitcoin stole its thunder bitcoin is the new goal that's better than gold and so why buy gold when you can buy bitcoin neither of those explanations are true the reality is this is the market if the big money doesn't believe that inflation is a serious threat because they believe the fed will be able to put out the fire before it really gets started if they really think we have a booming economy which is what everybody seems to think and if they believe the fed that inflation is going to stay anchored at two percent and if it gets too much above two percent well they've got the tools to bring it back down so if you really believe we've got this booming economy and we don't really have an inflation problem because the fed is going to contain it then this market action makes sense but ultimately the markets are going to prove investors wrong they're wrong in believing that the fed is going to be able to successfully fight inflation in fact i think they're wrong to believe that the fed will even try to fight inflation inflation is going to win by default because the fed is not even going to step into the ring they're going to surrender and so inflation wins without a fight and ironically too under that scenario bonds will be even weaker yields will rise even higher at the long end when the markets actually understand how much higher than two percent the inflation is likely to get but that's when gold's going to go ballistic and i don't know when that's going to happen but i believe there's going to be a very big move in the price of gold and silver in a single day and the only way to make sure you don't miss that day is to be invested before that day and because we don't know when that day is we need to be fully invested now recognize that what is happening is just noise and it is simply extending the buying opportunity for how much longer nobody knows so don't press your luck just get all the gold and silver that you want to get and just buy it now you can buy physical if you're worried about it third-party storage if you're worried about having it with an etf take physical possession and buy yourself some physical gold and silver and if you really want to participate in the boom get some exposure to the mining stocks because these things are going to deliver far greater returns if the price of gold does what i think than the metal itself you have tremendous leverage to the upside and i think the upside risk is small relative to the the upside potential so you have an asymmetric bet where it's really skewed in favor of how much you can make relative to the downside if you're wrong so if you're a gambler this is a smart bet to make and i think the way to play it is with my gold fund so that you get diversification and you get professional management of your gold portfolio and that's adrian day who is managing the euro pacific gold fund now some of the economic data that has come out over the past couple of days that should be moving the price of gold and silver higher but have not as of yet are number one the record merchandise trade deficit for march was 90.6 billion dollars that's one month this is an all-time record in fact it's the first time we've ever had a monthly trade deficit merchandise trade deficit with a 90 handle and you know what this record is probably going to be broken in april and then broken again in may in fact i think before the year is over we are going to be printing billion dollar monthly trade deficits and this is especially going to be true if the price of oil continues to rise now at 65 a barrel i think and i've been saying there's a very good chance that oil hits a hundred dollars a barrel before the end of this year and since america is now back to being a net importer of oil as the price of oil goes up that automatically drives up our trade deficit and so that's going to help power the deficit above 100 billion dollars now the most amazing part about the trade deficit is that nobody reported on it i mean nobody even cares right this is nothing as far as the financial media is concerned and in fact the few media outlets that bother to even mention the trade deficit they don't even mention it as if it's a bad thing i mean they generally put a good spin on it because they say that it reflects our strong economy right we have this great economy it's so strong consumers are buying all this stuff and that's why we have a trade deficit but it actually evidence is the opposite if we really had a strong economy producers would be making a lot of stuff we would need all these imports because our strong economy would produce the stuff that we're consuming it's because our economy is so weak and is incapable of production that we're so reliant on stronger economies abroad to produce the stuff that we can't now where are americans getting all this money to buy all this stuff that they can't afford and didn't help produce well they're getting it from the fed the fed is printing up this money and mailing out these stimulus checks or unemployment benefits and then people are taking that money and they're just buying stuff that's coming in from other countries and you can see that in the trade deficit the trade deficit is proof that we don't have a strong economy that we have a bubble economy this is evidence of a massive problem yet everybody ignores it now yes this number the trade deficit is going to directly subtract from gdp but there's still a lot of gdp that is generated on top of all these imports because the imports have to be distributed right so once the products come in the united states there is a lot of economic activity in the retailing of those products and the delivery of those products that feeds into the gdp but you take away the imports and all the rest of it falls apart without the underlying products the rest of it is meaningless and goes away so this thing is pure bubble and ultimately and not too far in the future the dollar has to collapse because we are flooding the world with dollars and how long is the world going to keep flooding america with their consumer goods in exchange for their dollars after all the rest of the world wants this stuff too why put it on ships and send it to america in exchange for dollars that are going to collapse so this shopping spree is going to come to an end
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