저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아 DCF 모델 기반 내재가치 약 314달러 산출(현재가 145달러 대비 2배 이상 상승여력 주장). 이익 성장률 57.3%를 5년간 적용 후 28%, 5% 장기로 감속, WACC 13.66% 가정. 3%/4%/5% 장기성장률 시나리오에서도 270~314달러로 저평가 주장. 다만 다수 가정에 기반한 정보 목적 분석이며 투자 판단 근거로 단독 사용 금지라고 명시.
다듬은 글
could Nvidia stock reach $314 per share in the next 12 months well one of my calculation suggests that could be the case I'm going to share with you the details of that calculation and how I ared at an intrinsic value of $314 per share for Nvidia stock of course that's more than double where it's currently trading at today at $145 per share so that leaves investors a great upside for Nvidia stock now there's going to be a lot of estimate and assumptions here to make this stock price estimate you can see for yourself if any of the numbers I'm using are too large too small too optimistic too pessimistic you can decide for yourself cuz you're going to see precisely where I'm getting all of the numbers and where I'm making any adjustments and you can determine if it's a good subit too bullish or too bearish we need NBS current share price at $145 per share I'm also going to need nvidia's market capitalization which stands at 3571 trillion then we're going to need nvidia's trailing 12 Monon free cash flow number which stand stands at 46.79 billion and then we need how much cash and equivalence the company has on the balance sheet which is 8.56 3 billion of course we also need the total long-term debt which is 8.46 billion for NVIDIA and finally we need the number of diluted shares outstanding which stands at 24.84 billion for NVIDIA we're not done yet so to forecast free cash flows I'm going to need the company's 5-year estimate and the number I'm going to use is the earnings per share estimate as predicted by according to those analysts they predict that nvidia's earnings per share will grow at 57.3% over the next 5 years which would be down from 66% from the previous 5 years and that's understandable that the growth rate would slow down these levels of growth are phenomenal and are not expected to last forever so in the short term I'm going to predict that they grow at these rates of increase but then I'm going to have I'm going to estimate that these rates will slow down over the following 5year period and the longer term beyond that all right so now that we have our estimates that we're going to use we can jump to our discounted cash flow valuation model for NVIDIA and this is as of nov November 11th 2024 now I want to draw your attention to this number here free cash flow for 2024 at 46.79 billion remember I got that number from White charts this was the trailing 12-month free cash flow number as reported by Nvidia I'm going to forecast growth from this number utilizing that 57% growth rate estimate from Wall Street analyst that I got from Yahoo finance I'm going to forecast that growth for the next 5 years until 2029 for NVIDIA starting the year 2030 I'm going to have a transition period growth rate for Nvidia stock at 50% the rate of the short run so instead of 57% beyond that the next 5 years I'm going to have it growing at 28% through 2034 and then starting year 2035 I'm forecasting Nvidia settles down to its long-term growth rate of 5% so I forecasted all of those free cash flows from 2024 to 2035 and the numbers you see below that are the discounted cash flow because money in the future is worth less to us than money today we have to Discount those cash flows the discount rate I'm using is a weighted average cost of capital of 13.66% I arrived that by using a cost of debt of 6.5% with the capital asset pricing model cost of Equity at 14.46% utilizing a beta of 1.66 for Nvidia stock and a risk- free rate of 4.5% with a market risk premium of 6% I put the company's Target capital structure at 90% equity and 10% debt even though the debt to equity right now is so small because the company's market cap is approaching 3.6 trillion and it only has 8 .
4 billion in long-term debt so when I get the present value of those free cash flows going out to the year 2034 I arrive at a present value of cash flows of 2443 trillion for Nvidia stock over the next decade from the year 2035 onward I'm going to get the terminal value using the terminal value formula which is the forecasted cash cash flow one period out growth rate and this value I arrived at 19.3 trillion discounting that value back to today I get 5368 trillion for NVIDIA combining those two valuations I get the value of operations of $7.8 trillion for Nvidia stock and to this total I'm going to add the company's cash balance and subtract the debt balance to get a value of equity of $7.8 trillion that's the value of equity of the whole business but what we're interested in finding out is the intrinsic value per share of Nvidia stock so to do that we need to divide that number by the number of shares outstanding which stands at 24.8 five billion again all of these numbers I got from the numbers I shared with you in the beginning of the video that's why I shared all those numbers with you so you can see where I'm getting all of these numbers from so when I divide the value of equity with the number of shares outstanding I get an intrinsic value per share for Nvidia stock at $314 $314 now that's much higher than the current share price of $145 you can see the upside in Nvidia stock and you can understand why I've had Nvidia stock rated as one of my top stocks to buy all year long in 2024 and it's performed very well year-to dat and I've reiterated that recommendation in part because when I do my discounted cash flow valuation it continues to show that Nvidia is undervalued now this is only one tool in my toolbox I use to evaluate publicly traded companies but the valuation part is the most important part in my six-step framework for evaluating publicly traded businesses and this calculation shows me that Nvidia is undervalued now you might say well the growth rate of 5% longterm is too high for Nvidia stock well to counter that I did a scenario analysis here three different growth rates 6% 4% and 3% in the long term if I use the 4% growth rate instead of 5% for the long term that gives me an intrinsic value of $290 per share for Invidia stock at a 3% growth rate it gives me an intrinsic share price of $270 for Nvidia stock so even if I use those two lower growth rates it still demonstrates to me that Nvidia stock is undervalued my base case scenario is at 5% long-term because that's the rate I expect nominal GDP growth in the markets Nvidia operates I expect 5% long-term growth in the economy and in the long term I expect Nvidia to at least grow at the rate of the economy that's why I use 5% as the base case in this scenario so there you have it that's why I think Nvidia stock could reach could reach now there's a lot of certainly a lot of estimates and assumptions used as I shared with you so this is for informational purposes only I recommend that you do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions do not rely on any of my calculations solely for any investment decision making this is just for for entertainment and
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