저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아 3분기(FY2025) 실적 발표(11/20)를 앞두고 주식 매수 타이밍을 분석. 매출가이던스 325억달러·매출총이익률 약 75%, 4분기 매출 360억달러 이상이 긍정 신호로 제시. 블랙웰 생산 확대와 차세대 루빈 기대감, 지정학 리스크 대응 계획 점검이 관전 포인트. 선행 PER 35.8배, DCF 적정가 주당 314달러 등으로 저평가로 판단. 위험 성향에 따라 실적 전후 분할 매수 권장.
다듬은 글
Nvidia plans to report its third- quarter fiscal 2025 financial results after the market closes on November 20, 2024. Therefore, many investors are curious whether they should buy Nvidia stock before the company announces its results, as the days following earnings releases can typically be very volatile.
The price of a stock can jump by 20, 30, 40, or 50 % following an earnings release. Therefore, investors may want to get ahead of the game and buy early. Additionally, earnings can be volatile on the downside as well , with the stock price falling by the same percentages mentioned above. As a result, investors are apprehensive and wondering whether they should buy after the company announces earnings.
This is therefore an important decision-making moment for investors and, understandably, they are curious about the timing of such a purchase. I will answer this question and address the concerns surrounding the earnings release and Nvidia stock. I’ll also preview what investors should expect from Nvidia in the upcoming quarter, the key numbers to watch for, and the important qualitative factors to consider when the company announces its results .
to discover the 10 best stocks to buy right now. The first thing to keep in mind for Nvidia and its third quarter of fiscal 2025, which the company will report on November 20, is revenue, which Nvidia has forecast at $32.5 billion, with gross profit margins around 75 %. These are remarkable margins for Nvidia: for a technology company of its size and the type of products it sells, it is best in class in gross and operating profit margins.
Now, if Nvidia actually reports its third-quarter revenue forecast, it would represent significant growth over the previous year, when it reported $18.1 billion in revenue with gross margins of 74%. Thus, Nvidia expects revenue to nearly double and gross margins to increase by about 80 basis points, reaching close to 75%.
If they actually deliver the expected numbers, that would be excellent year-over-year growth, as they have been doing for some time now . They keep reporting these excellent rates of growth and investors are wondering how much longer this can last. It looks like it will last at least another few quarters, given all the indicators I'm seeing in the market for Nvidia products.
Well, another thing Nvidia investors should pay attention to in the upcoming earnings announcement is the forecast for the next quarter. So, the data I shared with you about the next quarter and Nvidia's forecasts will likely provide a further estimate as well. In the fourth quarter of 2024, Nvidia reported revenue of $22 billion, a 265% increase year-over-year.
So, in the next results, when they forecast the next quarter, the growth rates will be far from this figure. Growth rates are declining. The company expects revenue of $32.5 billion for the third quarter. For the fourth quarter, what investors should hope for or look for is a revenue forecast of around $36 billion or higher.
If Nvidia forecast fourth- quarter revenue of $36 billion or more , with gross profit margins around 75% or higher, I think that would be a good sign for shareholders. Anything close to $32.5 billion, if they were forecasting a similar number for the fourth quarter, would be a negative outlook. I believe this would cause the stock to decline, as it would mean that sequential growth rates have slowed, which would be surprising given that Nvidia is completing its Blackwell technology and will ship billions of dollars of it in the fourth quarter.
As a result, this is expected to progressively add to third quarter revenues. Investors are therefore looking for incremental sequential growth between the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Another important area for investors to monitor for Nvidia is the one I mentioned earlier: Blackwell technology.
How is the production increase going ? Is he meeting his deadlines ? Was demand perhaps so strong that output had to be increased to meet the increased supply? It would be a surprising comment from management if they were to release one like that. For example, if they said, "You know, our Blackwell technology was already sold out for calendar year 2025, but we were able to go back to our suppliers and increase supply due to strong demand.
We were able to significantly increase supply to meet the 2025 orders, and we're still sold out; despite the increased supply, we already had orders to cover it. So, we'll still be sold out, but at a higher production level ." It would be a nice positive surprise that would push the stock price up in such an eventuality.
Additionally, I think NVIDIA will start talking more about the technology that will succeed Blackwell. They've already mentioned Rubin, which is the name they've given to the technology that will follow Blackwell, and investors will want more details. And if Nvidia provides more details about that , about what the demand for that technology is like, what the supply is like, how the production planning is going, whether there were any teething problems or difficulties, any positive aspect of that will drive the stock price up , because it hasn't been priced into Nvidia's price yet, given that this is a product coming out in 2026.
We don't have a lot of information about that product yet. So, these are the pros and cons that Nvidia stock investors need to monitor regarding the company. Of course, I think questions will be asked about geopolitical concerns, the new US administration, and how they have increasingly focused on combating outsourcing to the US and bringing more manufacturing jobs back home.
And so Nvidia will be asked these questions. And what they say is that they've been hearing this question for a couple of years now. What they keep repeating is that they have a backup plan , they have other areas they can move to if their production in Taiwan is at risk. They have a backup plan. And I think investors just want to be reassured, have a little more detail about what this plan is, what the downsides are, and some specifics about it to put their minds at ease, as they've become more concerned about this geopolitical risk, especially now that the U.S.
election results have suggested increased protectionism in the United States. Well, to answer the question of whether it is worth buying Nvidia shares due to earnings, the 35.82, which, if valued on that basis alone, is undervalued when compared to the growth rate expected for the next 5 years. Nvidia is expected to grow earnings per share by more than 50% annually over the next 5 years.
If we compare this figure with a forward PE of only 35, this indicates that the stock is undervalued, very undervalued. So, by this metric, Nvidia is undervalued. Recently, on November 11th, I ran another discounted cash flow valuation model for Nvidia stock, and my intrinsic value per share, using the DCF model, came out to $314 per share , which also suggests that Nvidia stock is undervalued.
So , I've analyzed Nvidia stock in several ways, and my analysis almost unanimously indicates that the stock is undervalued. This may partly explain why I've been coming to the same conclusion all year, placing Nvidia among my top 25 stocks to buy and my top 10 growth stocks for all of 2024, updating the list on November 11.
So, today, November 11, I still think the stock is undervalued and, given the earnings release, it is a buy. It is definitely worth buying . However, whether to buy earlier or later really depends on the investor's risk tolerance. If you have a high risk tolerance, then I think the stock is undervalued enough to buy before the earnings release.
However, to minimize your risk, you could split your investment in half, buying half before earnings and half after. This way, you evenly balance the risk of missing out on a big upside, as you will have half of your investment before earnings and benefit from that growth. But you will also reduce the risk of a sharp decline, since you will be allocating half of your investment to after publication.
So, if there is a big drop, you will get more shares at a lower price. That's why I suggest the lowest- risk strategy is to split it in half. But those with a very high risk tolerance can proceed with the purchase before the profits. In any case, the stock is undervalued and you can decide how to allocate your capital based on your risk tolerance.
But in terms of the real fundamental value of Nvidia stock, I think it is undervalued. Hi everyone, if you enjoy watching my videos, I've added a fantastic complementary product just for you. I created a book, I wrote ment framework, reading it and learning about my stock valuation method will make my videos much more interesting and informative. I added the link in the description below.
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