저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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AI·기술 혁신으로 생산성이 급등하고 인플레이션(단위노동비용·PPI)이 낮아져 금리가 하락할 수 있으며, 이 거시 환경에서 주식과 비트코인이 다음 상승장에 진입할 것이라는 주장. 비트코인은 금 대비 강세 전환을 근거로 제시. 생산성 전년비 3% 상회 가능성 42%(실제로는 더 높을 것으로 봄), 1분기 생산성 상승 전망, 이란 전쟁 등 공급충격은 소비자물가로 전가되지 않을 것이라는 시각 제시.
다듬은 글
The market is pretty sure that producer price inflation is going to surpass consumer price inflation on a year-over-year basis for three consecutive months this year. Now, that's very interesting. Uh Now, what is this saying?
Well, you can see it started out closer to 20~25% probability, moved to 30% as the initial stages of the war in Iran took off, and then everyone thought it was going to be over quickly, settled back, and you can see what has happened since. This is more extended than many observers predicted.
Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance. Emerging technology, declining interest rates, and shifting macro conditions all seem to be coming together to generate a gigantic, system-changing cycle in the Bitcoin market.
As signs point to a possible macroeconomic shift toward lower inflation, declining interest rates, and AI-driven productivity surges, prominent financial figures are becoming more optimistic. This is further supported by the fact that Bitcoin is once again outperforming gold as risk appetite returns, according to Cathie Wood.
Additionally, Tom Lee sees an even more significant shift in which blockchain and artificial intelligence combine to build the fundamental framework of the world economy, turning cryptocurrency from a simple commodity into the fundamental system for identity, payments, and financial settlement. If these patterns hold true and drive Bitcoin to $250,000, Ethereum may follow with goals ranging from $12,000 to $60,000, depending on how deeply integrated it is.
This forthcoming cycle will be quite different and possibly more explosive than any previous one.
Now, here's productivity, which is a part of that story. The technology, the innovation platforms that I just mentioned, involve 15 different technologies. They're converging, and we think that productivity growth is going to soar in the next few years.
So, here we ask the question: will non-farm productivity increase above 3% in any quarter? This is on a year-over-year basis, in any quarter in '26. You can see there's a 42% probability. Well, we think the probability is actually much higher than that, and it's for a statistical reason.
If you look at productivity today, we're at roughly 2.5%. And if you look across this chart, this is in the higher half of the history of this chart. So, pretty strong. As we have said on In the Know many times, we've been in a rolling recession, and this is what has happened.
Housing has been down and out. Manufacturing's been down and out. Small business down and out. Consumers have been in a funk as measured by sentiment. And productivity is at 2.5%. So, we believe these technologies are already having an impact on productivity.
When the first-quarter numbers are reported (they'll be revised two times, I think), if the first quarter is up at all on a quarter-to-quarter basis, that's annualized. Last year's first quarter was down roughly 0.9% quarter-to-quarter, so if it's up at all, that will take the year-over-year above 3%.
I know why it's probably at a low 42%. People are looking at very big productivity numbers in the second and third quarters of last year, 4.2% and 5.2%. If we're below those numbers, this will come back down. Nonetheless, that first quarter might actually be above 3%.
Here's unit labor costs, 2.3 to 2.4% on a year-over-year basis. For those of you worried about inflation, this looks very different from post-COVID. Unit labor costs soared then, and one of the reasons is that wage growth is very well-behaved now. After COVID, companies were scrambling to find employees so they could survive. That's not the case right now.
In fact, many employment indicators suggest we're in a weak environment, and part of it is AI. Entry-level jobs are not there for college graduates the way they have been in the past.
This underlying inflation of 2.4% is interesting, because if you look at the TIPS market, that's what the TIPS market says inflation is going to be. In other words, no real improvement from here. If we're right and productivity starts scaling to 3, then 4 or 5% next year, this unit labor cost growth rate will come down and underlying inflation will come down.
Here are some other reasons inflation is coming down. Again, this is very different from post-COVID, when we had a supply shock. Many people say we're in another supply shock, and when it comes to oil, we are. But we are not in a broad-based supply shock like we were after COVID. Nothing like it. In fact, quite the opposite in housing. Housing inflation is nil for existing home prices and still negative for new home prices.
Here you do see the supply shock when it comes to oil. How long will this last? The longer the Middle East turmoil continues, the longer this supply shock will last, and the question is who's going to pay for it. Will it get through to the consumer price level, or will it be eaten by consumer companies who have to pay up but can't pass pricing through to the end consumer? We have a strong point of view about that.
Here's another chart, a broad-based commodity index. You can see a bit of a supply shock, but I would submit it is more than that. It is demand going up relative to supply. This is a call for action, a call for more supply. Again, the question is who's going to pay for this, and whether it will get through to the consumer price level.
Here is the Kalshi sheet betting on that: the PPI year-over-year percent change minus the CPI year-over-year percent change. Will the PPI inflation rate be above the CPI inflation rate for three consecutive months in 2026? The market is pretty sure it will.
We already have two months where the PPI inflation rate has surpassed the CPI inflation rate. In February, PPI was 3.4% year-over-year and CPI was 2.4%. When the PPI is released on April 14th, this contract will probably close out, and we'll probably roll into another one, maybe six consecutive months or something like that. We shall see.
I've shown you total PPI and CPI, but here is core CPI minus core PPI. Even in conjunction with the war, a lot of producer prices other than food and energy have been increasing at an accelerated rate, while CPI, shown in purple, has been decelerating. What does this say? Perhaps consumer goods companies are not able to pass the cost increases along, and their margins will probably be squeezed.
According to TrueFlation, the year-over-year consumer inflation rate is about 1.7%. It got as low as 1.3 or 1.4 and has come up a little, but it has not gone anywhere near the 3.4% PPI inflation rate, even though gasoline is a big psychological and impactful category. Other prices must be coming down, or it's difficult to explain. Even more so when we look at the core TrueFlation inflation rate, which is at 1.1%. It struggled in the 2 to 3% range for about two and a half years and has resolved to the downside. We haven't seen this kind of core inflation rate since COVID, when we were in dire straits. That is very interesting.
One thing going on with PPI is that it reflects what's happening in the manufacturing sector. The purchasing managers index shows a clear pickup. I think this is related to our tax package, as I explained before, and some of the stimulus is getting into the economy, stimulating the supply side, which will be good longer run for the overall inflation rate.
Manufacturers are responding to higher prices, and they are producing more. This U.S. flatbed truck market demand index, an indicator Piper Sandler produced, is flat-out booming. Nobody is using the word "boom," but I think there is a call to action. Pricing is certainly one reason, but I also think there is a lot more foreign direct investment coming into the United States, some of it tariff-related, and some because deregulation and tax policy are so friendly.
On the services sector, both orders and, unfortunately, prices are up. Prices are again being impacted by what's going on in the Middle East, and it may be opportunistic pricing. Normally when new orders pick up, prices come down. I do think the purple chart will resolve to the downside once the Middle East turmoil clears up to some extent.
Here's why pricing isn't getting through. Sentiment is terrible, as measured by the University of Michigan, across three income levels: low, mid, and high. The lower income level dropped back to its recent low last month. Affordability is unfortunately still a massive problem and could really impact the midterm elections. Confidence, measured as jobs easy to get minus jobs hard to get, is deteriorating.
According to Cathie Wood, the macroeconomic environment seems to be changing toward a scenario the majority of the market is unprepared for. Interest rates may actually decline going forward as inflationary pressures peak. Inflation may decrease far more quickly than anticipated as supply chains return to normal, energy prices stabilize, and businesses use automation and AI to boost productivity. That would relieve pressure for rates to rise.
Meanwhile, the overall financial system is holding up remarkably well, as shown by historically tight high-yield credit spreads, contained bank risk indicators, and stronger-than-expected corporate profits that can withstand short-term pressure through AI-driven efficiency gains. In the end, this confluence of declining inflation, stable credit markets, and rising productivity creates an environment where lower interest rates could serve as a huge stimulus, propelling both stocks and cryptocurrencies into their next significant run upward.
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