저자: Ben · 외국인
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결론: 패스틀리(Fastly)는 과열 후 급락했지만 현 시점 가치는 과대평가라 단정하기 어렵고, 발표자는 소액 매수했다는 입장이다. [사업 설명] 패스틀리는 CDN(콘텐츠 전송 네트워크) 기업으로, 전 세계 서버에 콘텐츠를 복제해 사용자가 가까운 서버에서 빠르게 받도록 한다. 보안·확장성·대역폭 비용 절감 효과가 강조되었다. [실적·성장] 2019 IPO 이후 매출 1억4500만 달러(성장률 38%), 2020년 2억4600만 달러(성장률 45%)로 제시되었다. 발표자는 연 20~30%를 성장주로 보며 38~45%는 매우 좋다고 평가했다. 고객 1인당 평균 매출은 약 53만 달러 이상, 순확장률 132~137%, 기업고객 매출 비중 84%가 언급되었다. 고객 유지율은 98.9~99.3%로 높다고 설명했다. [주가·밸류에이션] 주가는 1년간 약 484% 상승 후 최근 실적 발표(성장률 둔화 전망) 이후 약 27% 급락했다. 시가총액은 약 94억 달러. 선도 매출 배수는 패스틀리 약 43배, 클라우드플레어 약 46배로 패스틀리가 상대적으로 약간 저렴하다는 데이터가 제시되었다. 2019년 영업손실 4650만 달러, 2021년 흑자 전환 전망(약 286만 달러). 유동비율 13.72로 현금 여력이 충분하다고 평가했다. [종목 비교·경쟁] 클라우드플레어는 시총 약 180억 달러로 패스틀리의 약 2배 규모이며, 올해 약 200% 상승했다. 서버 거점 수는 클라우드플레어가 훨씬 많다. 패스틀리는 라이브 비디오 등 고대역폭 처리에 강점이 있다고 설명했다. 패스틀리는 시그널 사이언시스 인수를 추진 중이며 보안 포트폴리오 확대가 목표다. [조건·리스크] 성장 둔화 시 추가 하락 가능성, 대형 경쟁사 대비 규모 열세, 아직 적자 기업이라는 점이 리스크로 언급되었다. [출연자 전망] 발표자는 패스틀리와 클라우드플레어 모두 매수 고려 가능하다는 입장이며, 본인은 6자리 규모 포트폴리오의 소액을 패스틀리에 투자했다고 밝혔다. 단기 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없었다.
다듬은 글
fastly is an exciting growth stock which has got everybody talking about it the stock's gone up by over 500 this year but now it's had a major pullback and plummeted by over 27 so the real question is is the stock still overvalued or could this be a great opportunity to buy well in this video we're going to find out i'm going to deep dive into the business model the numbers and tell you guys whether i personally have bought shares in fastly so if you're ready for that let's dive in so what is fastly and what does the business actually do well fastly is what's called a content delivery network or cdn it's very similar to cloudfare in that it has multiple servers all over the world and content is copied and placed in each server and then when somebody like you or me wants to access it they can access it from their local server rather than having to come from the source if that sounds confusing let me give you a simple example let's say i post a video from my location right now which is manchester england that will go to my local server and thus people local to me will be able to access it very fast but what if somebody wanted to access this video in tokyo in australia in california in new york that latency even though it's milliseconds between manchester new york still adds up for the customer experience so the idea of fastly as it places a copy of this content on a local new york server on a californian server on a tokyo server all over the world and this vast array of content delivery networks allow content to be delivered to you guys the user simple fast and effectively this also improves security because there are many copies of the content across the entire planet so let's say one as a security breach the others can facilitate or if one has an error the others can facilitate this is used across almost all websites video streaming services etc i actually run a travel website as well and on my travel website we actually use cloudfare in order to speed up the system and improve our security so that's my brief explanation of fastly but let's dive in to their definition the future of business starts with developers expectations for websites and apps are at an all-time high if they aren't fast secure and highly personalized users take their business elsewhere but today's most innovative companies are thriving by meeting this challenge head-on they're choosing fastly and an investment in their developers with fastly's powerful edge cloud platform developers get the tools they need to build the most groundbreaking apps all optimized for speed security and scale so businesses can effectively transform to compete in today's market together we're building the future of the web this helps to reduce business costs by offloading content too fastly you can save on pricey bandwidth and storage cost and reduce the burden on your servers or the central cloud more control and flexibility accelerate your workflow by enabling teams to do more on their own while syncing seamlessly with the tools they need to get the job done now the idea of that is one of fastly slogans is this is designed by developers for developers so let's say a developer wants to do an update on a website now they can do that fast and fastly can update that fast across multiple regions around the world um in milliseconds now previously and even with other systems this i'll go into a comparison between fast and cloudflare later but i personally have used cloudflare for my website and i've noticed when the developer does updates on the website it does take does take a long time for update to propagate across all the servers enhance security and user trust so protect your customers data uphold the integrity of your brand and give users confidence by displaying secure https sites across all your properties so obviously we've heard of a lot of hacks recently and obviously it's really bad for the brand really bad for the user of all that data going missing the interesting thing about fastly is they've got some exceptional clients so here we've got buzzfeed which is now 50 faster thanks to fastly here's a fact of page load times goes from just 0.5 seconds to 1.5 seconds you lose twice as many users so we help buzzfeed get their pages 50 faster so that's what they did for buzzfeed new york times they work with they're managing over two million requests so on election night the new york times had two million co-current viewers and their readers enjoyed flawless real-time updates across the devices see how they manage traffic spikes now that is really important for a publisher such as the new york times because they're publishing daily content hourly content minute by minute they want that to be updated fast across the world um they can't have it taking so many hours or days to update the content so they've got shazam they've got shopify they work with deliveroo boots business insider a e nordstrom let's dive into their investor presentation this from august 2020 we'll briefly go through this so who is fastly fastly provides developers with a secure and programmable edge cloud platform yeah that's probably the simplest way to put it revenue so our ipo the ipo in may 2019 145 million dollars um on the revenue and it 38 year-on-year growth um today this is in 2020 they've had 246 million uh dollars in revenue 45 year-on-year growth now that is fantastic growth there um generally i consider a growth stock one that grows between 20 and 30 per year this is 38 to 45 which is fantastic q2 of 2020 62 year-on-year growth average revenue across all enterprise customers over 530 000 plus um today 716 dollar base net expansion rate it's 132 that that's increased to 137 enterprise revenue as a percent of total revenue so 84 from their enterprise customers admiral revenue retention rate so are their customers staying with them 98.9 99.3 and i do agree with that as a web owner because i know once you've signed up for any of these platforms you don't want to leave because it's just so much effort to transfer all your files across transfer your data across there may be downtime on the website there may be errors when it's re-uploaded to a new provider so once you're in really you don't want to leave unless you unless you're experiencing really bad service um i've noticed that with with cloudflare recently um i hate to bang on about them but and they've crashed twice on my website they've not implemented well the ad provider and thus um i had to just turn them off because it was just damaging to the website now i don't know if fastly is the same or if this is just an isolated incident with cloud fair um the modern internet has new requirements so pre the health crisis 56 of companies describe their digital is underway now 75 of applications will be built not bought software error empowering developers new architecture operational efficiency 90 of companies will be multi-cloud by 2021 rather than a company having a data center on site there is no one site because a lot of people are working from home a lot a lot of people are not going back it makes much more sense for businesses to have all their data stored off-site they save on cost they save on maintenance and they have that scalability which is excellent here are some other companies that use fastly so we've got microsoft on there we've got google we've got reddit we've got stripe great companies there ted pinterest slack these are all at the cutting edge and they all use fastly so to me fastly is the elite of content delivery networks according to its clients here but yeah so there's the global network of the different servers as i mentioned previously so let's say i post a video here replicas of that video can be um scattered across all these different servers so let's say someone wants to access over here and say california they will access it from their local server rather than the data having to be transmitted all the way from here so that's the the benefit of it 100 terabytes per second i believe that is 55 markets um you may say okay what about cloudflare so let's go into just a few details of cloudflare cloudflare speeds up and protects millions of websites apis software services and other properties connect to the internet um fastly says they're more for small businesses i've used them myself in my small business so potentially that's true um main differences let's see here so it's mainly on the specs from what i can see here so fastly seems better for live video they can handle those high bandwidth operations and but i do know cloudflare is a substantially bigger company as you can see here they've got 43 server locations in north america fastly just got 17 6 in latin latin america 11.
um cloudflare has enlightened america 387 in europe fastly has just 13. so you may be asking ben why did the stock crash well i'll tell you why the stock crashed so firstly let's go on to here it went up by over 484 percent now we've had this major dip now due to the recent earnings that which were announced and they were actually projections for lower growth than expected and that is why we've seen this crash because there was a lot of high growth priced in and that is why we've now seen this crash but looking at the market cap it's only 9.44 billion dollars um the market cap for fastly and if we compare that to cloudflare cloudflare also actually crashed i believe just because it's in the same industry so they they're thinking well if fastly is not growing as fast cloudflare won't be either so cloudflare is only up by i say only 200 this year which is still incredible but they're a 17.97 billion dollar market cap company so let's say cloudflare is excuse me let's say cloudflare is double the size of fastly from what we can see here and as you know the larger companies get the harder it is for them to continue growing at massive speed but they're both great companies um i've personally had not an amazing experience with cloudflare but to be fair the system was free so i can't really complain and say the service was poor because it's free to use um at my level that we were using it at another interesting factor to look at is fastly is doing an acquisition for signal sciences so this acquisition plans to significantly broaden faster security portfolio next generation security solution for developers by developers so this is plugging fastly security issues and really making them one of the securest cdns around as i mentioned previously the company's growth rates are not quite as strong as many were pricing in um investors should now be pricing in the 43 year-on-year revenue growth rates at the top end um now many say well this means the health crisis didn't really help fastly because in 2019 their growth rate on the revenue was 44 so now they're still extremely good at growth rates but people are expecting much higher due to the global health crisis so the question is well is the stock overvalued well that's difficult to say the business still is unprofitable but if we look at the um forward sales ratio and we compare that to say cloudflare we can see fafsa's being priced at approximately 43 times forward sales yet it is largely expected to be growing at around 40 percent cloudflare is also largely expected to finish this year growing up 40 yes it's priced at 46 times forward sales so this is actually saying that fastly is actually slightly better value than cloudflare and looking at the companies you wouldn't expect that at all but from the data that does say it is slightly better value so here we are on stockopedia um now many of you guys always ask me which platform do i use here it is stockopedia if you guys want 've got 25 off discount link check it out on the link below but yeah let's look at a few more details on here so as you can see in 2019 the company had an operating profit loss of minus 46.5 million dollars to however the company is forecast to become net profitable by 2021 2.86 million dollars so it has got a path to profitability which is a good sign for these companies as you can see here analyst consensus um real mixed bag on the analyst consensus one strong cell one cell five whole four by one strong buy so real confusion going on there current ratio 13.72 now that is a significant amount of cash so generally i look for companies which have a current ratio of at least two means the company can perfect short-term debts at least twice this has got 13.72 so plenty of room to continue innovating expanding so stock rank just 55 momentum 94 value 14 quality 55.
now one thing i will say with this company and i think this does make a major difference these days is they market themselves extremely well they detail all their clients they say look we work with microsoft we work with google they detail them extremely well they have testimonial videos and i didn't really see too much of that on cloudflare's website so what that so what that makes me think is from a retail investor point of view more retail investors may be drawn to fastly potentially but these are two players in this growing industry so the real question is have i bought shares and fastly as the stock has crashed by over minus 27 percent well yes but only a tiny stake so i don't want to go into exact numbers but i've got a six figure portfolio and i've put a tiny stake into fastly just to give me some exposure to industry i did look at cloudflare as well i'd potentially invest in both companies to be honest so what your thoughts on fastly and cloudflare
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