저자: ZachHumphries · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인 현물 ETF 승인이 임박했고 3~6개월 내 다수 승인될 것이라는 낙관적 전망. 현물 ETF 승인 관련: 최근 승인 오보가 있었으나 캐시 우드가 승인이 가깝다고 말한 점을 근거로 제시. 연초 캐시 우드의 현물 ETF 마감일 언급. 블룸버그 애널리스트 75% 확률로 올해 내 승인 주장 인용. 은행 위기 관련: 지역은행 위기 당시 비트코인이 약 16,000~19,000달러에서 30,000달러 부근으로 상승해 안전자산 역할을 했다고 주장. 탈중앙화·투명성 덕분에 카운터파티 리스크가 없다고 설명. FTX 관련: FTX는 중앙화·불투명·사기였으며 비트코인과 대비된다고 강조. SEC 관련: 실무진은 전문성이 높으나 게리 겐슬러 위원장이 승인을 막고 있다고 분석. 선물 ETF는 승인됐지만 현물 ETF는 카운터파티 리스크가 없어 다르다고 주장. 위원이 5명이라 승인 결정 구조가 바뀔 수 있다고 봄. 승인 이후 전망: 한 개가 아니라 여러 개가 승인되어 마케팅 경쟁이 될 것이며, 이후 이더리움 ETF도 이어질 것이라 전망. 캐나다 사례를 근거로 제시. 타이밍 및 호재: 법적 명확성과 4월 반감기가 맞물려 두 가지 강세 요인이 겹칠 것으로 봄. 2023년 들어 비트코인이 최고 성과 자산이라고 언급. 캐시 우드 평가: 테슬라 등 신기술 초기 투자 실적이 좋았고, 2025년 비트코인 100만 달러 전망을 제시했다고 소개(본인은 그 시점 도달에 회의적). 출연자 발언 중심 정리.
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so there's been a lot going on as it relates to bitcoin ETFs and we've had some false reports about one being approved or actually multiple false reports and uh you know where there's smoke there could be fire though because Kathy Wood has recently come out uh basically ahead of these events and said listen we are close and U I want to take you inside this uh interview or discussion conversation that Kathy Wood recently had with Natalie Brunell and I want to stop it at various points and talk about kind of the things that Cathy's breaking down here because it really does lend us a lot of insight into where we are with Bitcoin ETFs I do think we will get uh many approved within the next 3 to six months I'm not alone in that statement just from anything I'm reading and seeing looking at the deadlines Kathy Wood's deadline coming up in early January for her spot Bitcoin ETF but let me take you inside here and and take a listen here to what Kathy Wood and Natalie had to say here and again I'll stop it at some various points stick around to the end of the video because this is jam packed with good info here so here you go what is going on with those I mean why haven't why hasn't one been approved yet and what do you think will happen some Bloomberg analysts say 75% chance that it'll still happen this year okay before I answer that I just want to give one more booster for for people who are saying who are a little reticent if you look at what happened during the Regional Bank crisis this year uh we learned a very important lesson uh we had Regional Banks stocks plummeting some of them going bankrupt and Bitcoin Rose from 19,000 to 30,000 what did that tell us it tells us that because of the decentralization and the transparency in the network uh that counterparty risk is not an issue uh for Bitcoin uh and so there was a flight to safety into Bitcoin think about that let me just stop it right there this is so accurate right we saw Bitcoin go from 16,000 to 30,000 amid the banking crisis people were looking for that hedge and they found Bitcoin H as Bank stocks were plummeting that spoke very loudly to me and I think the other reason uh people have been reticent is they heard about FTX uh and if they think about FTX though uh uh FTX Prov the point that you really want to be involved with a Bitcoin Network and not something like an FTX why Bitcoin is transparent and decentralized FTX was completely centralized completely opaque and a fraud uh it you know uh San bank mfree did not like Bitcoin and I understand why he thought he was a master of the universe and could could control everything well well he couldn't control Bitcoin right that that's why he couldn't control Bitcoin right and that's its beauty that's its beauty um so now with the ETF what is going on I I think you know we know the research people at the SEC and they know what they're talking talking about they are really good we've met uh the head of finhub now who reports directly to uh uh chairman gendler and for me the disconnect is they know so much and they are so good uh that um I believe this was much more Gary gendler standing in the way um I don't know for sure because they could never say something like that I just know from uh how they how we have discussed uh Bitcoin with them that they really understand it and they understand its merits uh most important uh so this is Gary gendler why he allowed and I will say he because I think uh he's the getting Factor here why he allowed a Bitcoin Futures uh ETF which involves counterparty risk and not a Bitcoin ETF which does not involve counterparty risk in fact it it is backed ours would be backed by Bitcoin one for one in Cold Storage at coinbase uh that that's why grayscale has won its case it is that argument and and so uh I I think Gary gensler's personal Vietnam is coming is coming around to haunt him I super candid response here too from Kathy Wood you don't see this a lot from her I love it absolutely love it do you think the the SEC is moving now he has in effect said hey I'm not the only decision maker there are five Commissioners here that means some of the research uh that we believe is percolating up to those Commissioners might uh be getting through to them and uh might be the grounds now for the approval of a Bitcoin ETF and we don't think that that the SEC will approve just one uh they will probably approve a group of them and that means it will become a a marketing battle and and we do hope that uh our research how much we uh you know give away our research mostly because uh we feel it very important to educate it's one of our mission and values uh we hope that that uh that helps us as we uh hopefully be being one of those approved go out and start marketing very interesting of course Kathy Wood if you don't know the background backstory backdrop if you will she called Tesla super super early uh was super early to a lot of great tech companies and she sees the Merit in Bitcoin she's been calling for a bitcoin price to get up over a million dollars by 2025 which I don't know if it's going to happen that soon uh but the moral of the story is she's super bullish on bitcoin she's been right more than she's been wrong in terms of calling out new and emerging Technologies whether they're companies or networks like Bitcoin and uh again super candid response here basically saying that Gary gensler's getting in the way of you know these Bitcoin ETFs and eventually uh once he gets out of the way that a lot of them would be approved pretty pretty fast right uh and I do agree that it won't be just one I think it will be many I think in ethereum ETF will soon be there after that's exactly how it went down in Canada uh was just weeks you know past the uh Bitcoin ETF approvals where then ethereum ETF uh ETFs were approved as well so where does this uh where does this leave us right now well I think the timing and everything here is really really good I mean I think we're going to get kind of a two things happening at once two really bullish things happening at once we're going to get some you know legal Clarity SL Bitcoin ETFs approved uh in addition to that of course we have the Bitcoin having and I think this will line up really nicely hopefully we get the ETFs a little bit beforehand uh and then obviously we have the having coming up in April and uh we just saw recently you know to Kathy's Point what Bitcoin has done in 20123 it's hard to believe but it is the best performing asset here this year and year to date 2023 it's went against the grain where many stocks have plummeted Bitcoin has continued to gain ground and really hold steady during some really tumultuous times in the overall market so I thought this was uh really really great to hear from Kathy Wood hopefully you got some value out of it let me know if you guys like this what your thoughts are and don't forget to subscribe to the channel appreciate you guys we'll see you in the next video take care
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