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one of the reasons why I want to play more bridge is that bridge is extraordinary training for making inferences so I've learned the analysis is not just what appears on the balance sheet and income statement although you should certainly be able to do that and look at it well but you know and this is this is this may be the most valuable thing I tell everybody here you know based on what I know about this person based on what I all of the history I know about them based on what I know about their financial circumstances they just made XYZ move in Charlie munger's case bought a ton of Alibaba what does that tell me about the world how does that update my evaluation of the probabilities that something will be true or false so I had to get to the realization that I am never going to know everything first hand I have to make those inferences I have to study people like Charlie Munger but also study people like Carl Icahn and then when I see them make a move try and understand why most of the time I won't but every now and then it will update my probabilities in such a way that I have an Insight which will enable me to do something so back to Charlie Munger so that's some information on Costco Charlie Munger also had an investment in a company called posco and it was a kind of like the rationale was not dissimilar to Costco this kind of low-cost operator as Nick sleep would say scale economy shared it did not work out and if posco which is the leading steel producer in Korea is an interesting business but it has not delivered the kinds of shareholder returns that those of us who went into it were expecting so now we go to Alibaba and um I think that the company as best I can understand has reached a degree of centrality in the Chinese economy and in the global economy that as China grows in spite of everything all the other noise that is going on it is extremely likely to be lifted and in spite of not not having Jack Ma at the helm anymore and I it seems to me that that's the kind of analysis that Charlie Munger has done so it's in this unusual place of being part of the uh retail infrastructure of China and of the world while at the same time having some really really good economics going on around it so yes you've heard from the man himself so this q a session with guy spear was posted back in March of 2022 so time to go all in into Alibaba oh wait I'm already all in with that I'll see you in so I'm just joking by the way please don't just blindly listen to some random guy on the internet so the only thing you should listen to is to smash that freaking like button so in case you are not aware from now until the end of October 2022 mobile is currently running a Cash Plus event where you can get two dollars worth of cashback daily for the next 30 days so as long as new users who subscribe to this Cash Plus account of hundred dollars and above and ensure that you hold the position of hundred dollars within the next 30 days you can get two dollar 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there don't worry I got you covered as well Momo is also running aggressive rewards campaigns giving out free stocks or even cash rewards everything will be in the description below thank you Mumu for sponsoring this video so for those of you who don't know yet guy spear is the fund manager of the aquamarine fund with around 315 million dollars in assets and he basically had a lunch with Warren Buffett back in 2008 so it's also probably better known at least in the YouTube space for buying into Alibaba as well and being a Charlie manga disciple so if you have to just hop onto data Roma and search Aqua Marine Capital they currently have 3.17 allocated to Alibaba and also around 1.75 allocated to Daily Journal which by extension has exposure to Alibaba as well so as you can tell from the short extract that I showed in the first part of the video guy has been a rather big fan of essentially cloning investment ideas from all the different great investment Messiahs and he essentially walked you through his thought process of cloning and quote-unquote imitating Charlie manga so I do have my own reservations with regards to cloning but as an effective Capital allocator I'm sure guy has much more tricks up his sleeves and cloning is just one of them so I think as a veteran Capital allocator himself I'm actually quite curious if there could be potential subsequent trigger points that will push him to maybe buy more Alibaba shares or what would be his deal breaker for him to exit out of this position so maybe you and more of you guys decide to subscribe to this channel I might be able to slide into his DMS and get him onto the channel itself for now it's all wishful thinking anyway guy went on to make a fairly interesting point I happen to be aware that some people were selling Alibaba and buying other companies and Charlie Munger was encouraging them and agreeing with them that that was a smart move and then I discovered three or four months ago whenever it was that he's been buying Alibaba while he's been encouraging other people to buy something else which was really really interesting to me so the other sort of like sort of like Blockbuster company in China 10 cent going back to my earlier point about kind of analyzing stakeholders and doing real sustainability analysis I have a huge problem with gaming companies because I think that many of those games are rotting the minds of our young people it's interesting to me that the Chinese Communist Party decided to ban uh children from playing more than one hour a week and so for me uh gaming companies maybe the new tobacco and I think that that's part of the reason why he was not interested in tencent last piece of the analysis I happen to know and this is a kind of inference you know he's got a huge investment with lilu lilu has got extraordinarily good understanding of China lilo's this Chinese and very very genius investor who was at the Tiananmen Square demonstrations he was one of the protesters for a certain period of time he was a persona non grata in China and so I that leads me to believe that Charlie manga has a deep understanding of um the place of Alibaba not just in Chinese business but the way the Communist Party sees Alibaba so essentially the main protagonist in his story was monish pabri and I've covered monisha's opinion on Alibaba just a few videos back so you can watch it afterwards so monish himself has converted his Alibaba exposure to tencent and guy has laid out his own personal perspective about tencent so truth be told I don't really see tencent as a gaming company it just happens that tencent is the largest gaming company in the world whether is it by accident or whether it was carefully manufactured by the management team but that's another topic so you should also know that I'm also a tencent shareholder I'll buy a much smaller exposure in comparison to Alibaba but I'm essentially buying the whole social media Network that underpins the business and not so much purely the gaming portfolio that's just my quick thesis now back to manga himself so I'm actually quite interested to know what do you guys think about the short story guy shed where manga himself was essentially giving his step of approval to monish on his sale of Alibaba while he himself retains his exposure under the djco portfolio so I think it's also an Open Secret by now that manga managed the risk associated to Alibaba via position sizing and his intention of doubling down back in Q4 of 2021 was basically just trying to bring his cost price lower and he essentially sold the initial shares probably for tax loss harvesting purposes so guy has also shared his perspective on managing race with this Chinese related investment I also bought Somali Baba what I did was I sized the position right for uh I sized it well below what would have been right for me I think often the answer when you're investing in public markets is position sizing you're very lucky you can go especially if you're on a small Fund in many many of the businesses that are out there you can go as large or as small as you like so I've been reflecting a lot about this topic on position sizing and I might do a video on it soon so with that I'll see you in the next video but more importantly I will see you on the moon goodbye
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