저자: TayChiKeng · 외국인
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결론: 영상 자체는 찰리 멍거의 알리바바 투자 판단을 해설하며 알리바바 매수 여부에 대해 긍정적 입장을 시사하나, 구체적 가격 예측은 없음. [멍거 발언 소개] 멍거가 버크셔 주주총회 등에서 알리바바의 경쟁우위가 애플·구글보다 약하다고 언급했다고 소개. 멍거는 알리바바를 버크셔의 상위 3개 보유 종목 중 하나로 언급하며 미국 동종 기업(아마존) 대비 PER이 약 3분의 1 수준으로 크게 할인되어 있다고 밝힘. [투자 논리] 멍거는 중국 기업이 달러당 더 큰 경쟁력(strength)을 제공하고 가격도 낮다고 판단해 중국에 투자한다는 입장. 영상은 기업 가치는 미래 현금흐름의 현재가치이므로 밸류에이션이 중요하다고 설명. [버핏 사례] 버핏이 1989년 시가총액 상위 20개 기업 목록을 제시했으나 2021년 기준 현재 상위 20위에 남은 기업은 0개라는 점을 인용해 장기 1위 기업 지속의 어려움을 강조. [리스크] 알리바바 경쟁우위 취약, 중국 정부 규제, 소유구조 리스크, 정치적 리스크 등 부정적 요인 언급. [출연자 전망] 부정적 심리와 리스크에도 불구하고 20년 실적과 약 10억 명 활성 사용자, 성장 전망을 근거로 알리바바가 여전히 좋은 매수 대상이라는 취지로 마무리. [기타] 영상 중 신용카드 프로모션 광고 언급 있음.
다듬은 글
so not too long ago just before the announcement of charlie manga selling half the stick in alibaba manga actually floated this assumption during daily journals annual shareholders meeting that objectively speaking alibaba might not be as entrenched compared to the likes of other internet giants such as apple or google furthermore the internet industry is an incredibly competitive space today you might be first tomorrow you might be forgotten so don't count your chickens too early and it's always day one if you know where i'm referencing it from so in short alibaba's competitive advantage is subpar compared to its competitor then it gets people wondering why would manga put money into a business with a lousier competitive advantage lousier with a code of course you know what is a better competitive advantage smashing that like button of course it definitely helps me with my competitiveness so let's see if we can get this video to 10 likes now let's understand from manga himself and he says charlie alibaba is a top three holding for you it sells at a steep discount to its u.s peers best comparable is amazon which is triple alibaba's pe so what discount should should u.s investors seek when buying chinese stocks considering the political regulatory and especially the ownership structure risk oh and considering the fortune berkshire made on your byd suggestion why doesn't buffa buy alibaba warren like many other intelligent people likes to invest where he's personally comfortable and for some reason i'm more comfortable with the chinese than he is that's a minor difference but i have all kinds of places where i'm just like war and i have all kinds of things where i'm not comfortable and i just don't go near them i don't think alibaba is as entrenched as something like apple an alphabet i think the internet is going to be a very competitive place even if you're a big internet retailer well we did a very very simple reason we got more strengths per dollar invested in china this the companies we invest in are stronger relative to their competition and priced lower that's why we're in china let's get this straight alibaba is arguably a lousier business if we benchmark it against its competitors but manga claims that chinese enterprises yield more strength per dollar what exactly is going on and what is he talking about now the easy explanation is there is a price to everything whenever we are looking at any stock symbol on listed on any exchange let's not forget that we are buying a share of that underlying business so behind the various businesses the employees revenues profits etc however on top of just the business operations alone we are also paying a certain valuation of the company today so if we can objectively come to a conclusion that apple is the best company in the world based on all financial metrics in the world and the strength of its economic mode are we going to pay a 30 trillion dollar valuation for it today we shall let the market decide but let's not forget why valuation matters it's not just an arbitrary number that people pull out from their assets and say that okay today we think that apple is worth 3 trillion and that's why it's 3 trillion it's always a function of the present value of all future cash flows that potentially can be generated from the business operations and the future undertakings so if the prospects of apple suddenly changes for the better where they are currently pushing into maybe even electric vehicle sure apple might really be worth 30 trillion today so there are always two aspects to looking at the businesses either qualitatively or quantitatively so it then sparked an ho debate on whether you should buy a great company at a fair price which suggests that you put more emphasis on the quality of the businesses and its economic mode or do you buy a fair company at a great price where you put more emphasis on the valuation of the business so of course every single investors out there will tell you that they want a great company at a great price and usually we'll just keep waiting for god to give us something like that so do take note though for most investors including myself after we take a particular position in the company we automatically get brainwashed into thinking that whatever we have in our portfolio are all great companies so don't get duped by us now manga's point is simple he acknowledges that alibaba might not be as entrenched and might have a smaller mode compared to others but he takes into account their current valuation and measures it based on the relative strength yielded on each dollar he invests in so long story short manga is just measuring the efficacy of his deployed capital and where he can find the best use of his capital in today's market so i think it is also timely to reiterate the lesson warren buffett gave during berkshire's last annual meeting in 2021 so the good old oracle from omaha put out a list of 20 biggest stock buy market cap in the world in 1989 and showed it to the audience so out of the list of 20 companies none zero of the companies are still in the list of being top 20 today so this list of companies included the industrial bank of japan exxon general electric and ibm all and gas companies were the bomb in the 90s and tech companies seemed to be the new wave that took over so would there be another industry that takes over tech your guess is as good as mine so he then added that we were just as sure of ourselves and wall street was in 1989 as we are today but the world can change in very very dramatic ways then this begs the question would this time be different so i really don't know personally i think history would repeat itself again but i'm not the oracle so many people are constantly chanting and pounding hard on the chess saying that x company or y company will take over the world and would be the game changer so valuations don't matter because it's the best company in the world so if that really comes to fruition i'm happy for you but can there really be a best company in the world in a sustained manner for a long period of time of maybe let's say more than 20 years we shall keep our eyes peeled for what is to come so here comes the real kicker should we and must we invest only in the best of the best so like i alluded previously investing is a lot more than arts than in science of just crunching data and making projections both the qualitative and quantitative aspect of the business is important so it is then up to you to decide as an investor on how do you systematically break down and place more emphasis on clearly um there is no surefire way to 100 beat the index because evidently more than 90 percent of the fund managers with the professional career out there don't even outperform the market and as retail investors we just have a high level of ego and we always want to give it a shot right however you know what has 100 roi smashing that like button and signing up for credit card rewards so from now till 4th of may 2022 if you sign up for standard chartered smart card you'll receive an airpods pro for free and you get to enjoy up to 6 cashback in the forms of reward points with no minimum spending required furthermore um there is no annual fees attached to it and you get three months of disney plus subscription no hit on netflix by the way i'm subscribed to both netflix and disney anyway you can head down to the link below to sign up for a standard chartered smart card today and you just have to spend minimally 350 within 30 days of the card approval don't let this 100 roi deal get away and it expires on the 4th of may now back to the main question with all the different bad sentiments surrounding alibaba arguably a subpar or even a non-existing economic mode a strong overhang of the chinese government behind the scenes and a business with huge challenges laid out in front of them is alibaba still a good buy i think actions do speak louder than words and you guys should already know my answer fundamentally though alibaba as a business has already proven itself over the last 20 years with a decent enough track record on challenges ahead which company has it easy on sentiments it's something out of our control on the whiteness of its economic mode it might not be the best but i don't think we should totally discount the 1 billion active users and growing prospect as a company beyond hope so with that i'll see you in the next video but more importantly i will see you on the moon goodbye
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