저자: TayChiKeng · 외국인
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결론: 찰리 멍거의 발언을 근거로 알리바바 매수 정당성을 부각하지만, 해당 발언은 특정 종목 언급이 없는 일반론이며 영상 화자는 자신의 투자 손실 가능성도 인정함. 멍거 발언 인용: 좋은 투자 기회는 평생 많지 않으니 왔을 때 과감히 잡아야 하며, 자신이 놓친 가장 큰 실수는 벨 리지 오일(Bell Ridge Oil)을 추가 매수하지 않은 것이라고 함. 화자 해석: 멍거가 2021년 1분기와 3분기에 알리바바를 매수해 최근 자신의 알리바바 투자를 시사했다고 해석. 데일리저널의 2014년 4분기 이후 매매 기록과 2021년 매수 이력을 근거로 제시. 투자 철학: 리테일 투자자들이 끊임없이 다음 대박 종목을 찾는 것을 비판하며, 시장이 효율적이라는 믿음과 장기 투자를 강조. 지적 정직성: 자신이 실제로 이해하지 못한 것에 대해 견해를 가질 자격이 없으며, 반대 입장을 가장 잘 주장할 수 있을 때까지 검토해야 한다는 리 루(Li Lu) 조언을 소개. 리스크 인식: 알리바바 관련 부정적 헤드라인과 중국 정부 규제 우려를 언급하며, 앞으로의 변동성이 일부 투자자를 압도할 것이라고 인정. 출연자 전망: 화자는 자신이 알리바바 보유자들의 심리 상담 역할이 되었다고 언급하며, 장기 보유 입장을 유지하나 시장이 비효율적인지 시간이 증명할 것이라고 함. 구체적인 가격 목표나 기간 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
recently a member of the community actually directed me to a podcast between charlie manga and professor stephen pinker to discuss defying the odds and the dangers of over interpreting coincidences so they talked about many inherent biases that the normal investor usually commit to during the entire investment career and more importantly how berkshire actually managed to beat the market for such a long period of time so the short discussion really grounded me in the realities of investing and more importantly provided the perspective that even such a famous and successful investor himself admitted that he would have made billions more if only he had made better decisions funny enough people with millions of dollars are parading around their three-digit gains over a two-year time frame while billionaires are consistently sitting on so much wealth are constantly reflecting on what they could have done better and every day is a new learning opportunity of course i'm just a clown on the internet who's probably down 30 from his fervent belief that the market is clearly missing something you don't have to listen to me by the way i don't have such a huge ego that requires constant stroking and emphasizing the fact that i have a huge dong essentially the entire premise of creating youtube videos and sharing opinions all thoughts are solely for the purpose of documenting my own growth journey for building a community of people that are interested in doing the same so for those of you who have been following me for quite some time now i've always tried to dig deeper into understanding the mechanisms behind certain thought processes and the real philosophy undergirding certain actions so before i lose that passion remember to smash the like button to help boost my ego anyhow i'll be playing a short clip where manga actually opines on being aggressive when the time is right and to consistently be engaging in introspection i'm a card player not a good one but but better than most people and every good card player knows that you've gotta not blow your opportunities you don't get that many not enough people carry that card playing wisdom over into practical life the truth of it is all of us are very seldom going to get a really good opportunity that we can seize a great investment all kinds of good opportunities you don't get that many good ones in a lifetime and so it really matters whether when the few do come along you reach out and grab them vigorously and i gradually taught myself to do that but i made some terrible mistakes of omission along the way now they didn't actually hurt me i didn't take losses i just failed to make gains can you can you recall one can you single one out well the worst one i ever did is i bought 300 shares of bellridge oil because it was selling for way below intrinsic value and the guy called me back and he said i've got 1500 more and this time i didn't have any money lying around i had to borrow and it was a time when i'd had some pain from past borrowings and so anyway i thought it over for a while and even though it was an obvious bargain i said no i just didn't buy the 1500 shares bill richards sold out for 30 sometimes what i was going to pay for it two years later it was one of the stupidest mistakes it made me now it doesn't look on my record like i'm not stupid because i started with nothing and i have billions but i would have twice as many billions if i just made a different decision about bill ray joyle it was really very stupid of me not to borrow the money and buy the extra 1500 shares and i've done that over and over again in life and by the way warren's done some of it too the mistakes of omission really cost you terribly and so i've tried to teach i teach myself out of them as best i can but i as you can tell i've failed i failed horribly but charlie did you learn a particular lesson from that that in a sense drew on some psychological insight well i always knew i was fallible but that was really pretty stupid my belly joy so charlie talked about how good opportunities don't come by often and when they do come knocking on your doors it really matters whether you grab them or not so in the earlier part of the podcast charlie said that playing poker in the army honed his business skills what you have to learn is to fall early when the odds are against you or if you have a very big edge back it heavily because you don't get a big edge often so charlie also discussed about his mistakes of omission charlie did not technically make any losses on many of those said investments but instead he missed the potential gains even though he was clearly aware of the opportunity but did not swing at it hard enough because of some reasons like his painful lessons from borrowing previously so naturally for many alibaba booths they will automatically hypothesize that charlie is essentially speaking about his recent investments in alibaba so if you just do a quick search on data roma and check out the buying and selling activities of daily journal cooperation where manga is the chairman their last activity was recorded all the way back in q4 of 2014 so that's seven years ago and their most recent purchase started in q1 of 2021 where he built his first position in alibaba and subsequently doubled down again in q3 of 2021.
clearly it's true that charlie is definitely a man of his words despite being full-time investors or capital allocators where some of you might call him he is not in the hurry to consistently find the next tesla or the next apple they follow an extremely strict set of rules and philosophies when making the investment decisions and when they do see an opportunity that don't come by very often they will swing and they will swing hard without giving it any chance to escape out of their site funny isn't it us as retail investors are constantly loitering around investment forums lurking around some trading groups on discord or telegram always in search of the next investment opportunity if you were to really sit ourselves down and to really think about it and ponder back are there really so many opportunities lying around at our fingertips what happened to the belief that the market is generally efficient what happened to investing for the long term unless jerome power is a sugar daddy how do you always have so much liquid cash to be investing in the next tesla funny enough for people always in search of the next big thing there is already those big things out there like tesla or apple if you truly believe that they'll be disrupting the entire world why not just bet on them instead regardless it will be interesting to see the subsequent actions from manga in the following quarters side note i do believe that we are all failurable creatures manga could have very well just gave a general advice but only us as alibaba boos are registering it as a call for action but there is this saying action always speaks louder than words to add on even super investors are not always right and they do have a history of screwing up from time to time so it really grounded me in the realities of today's world lastly i just wanted to end off with some advice from lilu who's considered one of charlie's confidants and i'm pretty sure this investment in chinese companies in particular alibaba was also largely under the advice and guidance of lilu because lilu definitely have a deeper understanding about china compared to manga himself so there was a particular point that resonated with me deeply where i think many investors usually know so it is this concept of maintaining intellectual integrity or intellectual honesty so i know most of us come from different backgrounds some with different cultures different work experiences and different trainings from different disciplines so we all have our own inherent innate biases and it shows true investing and our research and more importantly it shows when we have skin in the game on how we put our own hard-earned money on the table when we back on specific companies so you have to be really honest with what you know and what you assume or pretend to know consciously and more importantly subconsciously so if you don't know whether you truly understand the nuances and the mechanisms of how something works you are not entitled to a view until you can find the smartest people on the planet who took the other side of the view and you can argue better than he or she does and at the end of the day when you are lying on your bait while the stock market is doing its own thing you have to be extremely comfortable with the decisions that you have made and if it was built on foundation of lice and blast it is clear why you can't sleep well at night or worse still you'll be constantly on the edge of your bed thinking about how everything can go wrong don't try to dismiss everything you see online it's just fun like fear uncertainty and doubt or whenever someone takes an opposing position contrary to your own belief you shut them down immediately before even verifying the merits of their claims that's the quickest route to lock yourself in an echo chamber so i'll be the first to admit that my channel has inevitably evolved into a mini therapy outlet for people back holding alibaba but i would just like to assure you that i consistently try to keep myself updated with the other side besides it isn't even that much or too much extra hard work because all you see nowadays are negative headlines bad articles on seeking alpha and people just essentially on the whole chinese government and everybody should keep themselves away from chinese equities so for those of you who are still here you just have to be constantly reflecting on your underlying assumptions and your underlying thesis challenge them with the arguments presented and see whether has anything changed materially i have done it probably on a weekly basis whenever i have to ideate and film my videos and this youtube channel was really a blessing in disguise we have to force myself to sit down and think through all the different myriads of problems being thrown at me which allowed me to build more and more conviction over time so for those of you who were here since the start of this channel i thank you and time will tell whether i'm lying to myself or is the market really that inefficient with that i also like to end up saying that hey i'm not the cult leader for alibaba and i probably don't have the appropriate license to conduct any counseling session i understand that it's probably gonna be tough and the volatility ahead would overwhelm some investors and for those of you who constantly need some help or constantly need somewhere to talk to someone you can probably slide to my dms or just message me or something that's it please don't just drop me a dm and tell me oh it's negative five percent again i think ultimately that's not really productive for any forms of discussion to transpire so with that i'll see in the next video but more importantly i'll see you on the moon goodbye
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